BUSINESS FORECASTING

Iron ore heads for price crash: RBC

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 26-Jul-18

RBC Capital Markets has downgraded its average price forecast for iron ore in the September quarter from $US60 per tonne to $US50. The firm also expects the price of the steel input to average $US47.50 in the December quarter, compared with previous expectations of $US70. However, RBC expects the iron ore price to rebound to $US63/tonne in 2019. RBC has also downgraded its earnings forecasts and share price targets for BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group.

CORPORATES
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Top-grade iron ore may spike to $US100 on China clampdown

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Original article by Krystal Chia
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 17-Jul-18

The price of high-grade iron ore reached $US91 a tonne on 13 July, and there is speculation that it could reach $US100. The demand for high-grade iron ore, which is classed as ore with 65 per cent iron content, is being driven by steel mills in China, where there is a major crackdown on pollution. Using high-grade ore enables steel makers to cut back on pollutants, as well as allowing them to produce more steel. The price of high-grade ore is up since the start of 2018, while the price of benchmark ore – which has 62 per cent iron content – has declined by 14 per cent.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, WOOD MACKENZIE, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, IRON ORE RESEARCH PTY LTD, CRU GROUP LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Aussie miner in trade war crossfire

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Original article by Alexandra Stevenson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 13-Jul-18

China’s domination of the global rare earths market gives the nation significant power in a trade war with the US. Rare earth minerals are an essential component of consumer goods such as smartphones and electric cars. Chinese-made goods containing rare earths are among those being targeted by the Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs. Amanda Lacaze, the CEO of Australian-listed rare earths producer Lynas Corporation, says China could easily restrict global supply if a full-scale trade war erupts. Lynas produced about 12 per cent of global rare earths supply in 2017.

CORPORATES
LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX LYC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ADAMAS INTELLIGENCE

Australia to slip in LNG ranking

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 27-Jun-18

The International Energy Agency’s latest gas market report notes that global demand for natural gas increased by three per cent in 2017. This was primarily due to rising gas consumption in China as part of the nation’s strategy to improve air quality. Meanwhile, the IEA forecasts that the global LNG market will grow by nearly 30 per cent over the next five years. Much of this growth will be due to higher production by the US, which is forecast to supplant Australia as the second-largest LNG exporter by 2023.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Petrol demand still on rise, but peak prediction is 2030

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 13-Jun-18

FACTS Global Energy chairman Fereidun Fesharaki expects growth in global consumption of crude oil to average 0.7 per cent a year until 2040. However, Fesharaki expects global demand for petrol to peak in 2030, while demand in Asia will peak in 2040. Fesharaki also says Woodside Petroleum’s Scarborough LNG project is certain to proceed, although he warns that other projects are doubtful due to LNG buyers’ aversion to long-term supply deals.

CORPORATES
FACTS GLOBAL ENERGY GROUP OF COMPANIES, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CREDIT SUISSE AG

Mining capex slow to move on big profits

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 5-Jun-18

The mining and construction sectors were a major contributor to the 5.9 per cent growth in the profits of Australian companies during the March quarter. However, data from PwC shows that the capital expenditure of the world’s 40 largest mining companies remains at its lowest level for a decade. Chris Dodd of PwC expects miners to continue to be cautious with regard to capital investment. Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg recently expressed a similar view.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, GLENCORE PLC, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

LNG shortage to hit soon, says Woodside

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 24-May-18

Woodside Petroleum now expects a global shortage of LNG to occur in 2021, with CEO Peter Coleman warning that supply and demand could be in deficit even earlier. Woodside had previously flagged an LNG shortage in 2023, but it has revised this forecast due to factors such as rising demand in Asian countries other than China. Coleman also says contract prices for LNG buyers on Australia’s east coast are likely to rise.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CHEVRON CORPORATION

Quarterly coal deals are dead, buried: BHP

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 8-May-18

BHP Billiton executive Arnoud Balhuizen says coal producers and buyers are unlikely to return to the quarterly contract pricing system. The shift away from the traditional pricing system gained momentum in mid-2017 when coking coal buyer Nippon Steel commenced a trial of a new system whereby contract prices were determined on the basis of the average spot price over the previous three months. Meanwhile, Balhuizen believes that the rise in the price of higher-grade coal and iron ore is likely to be structural rather than cyclical.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, NIPPON STEEL AND SUMITOMO METAL CORPORATION, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION

Rio iron ore mines shielded from potential US tariffs

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 8-Mar-18

Rio Tinto has advised that the automation of its haulage trucks will result in the loss of 200 jobs at its Brockman 4 and Marandoo iron ore mines in the Pilbara. The technology will also be rolled out at the West Angelas mine. Chris Salisbury, the CEO of Rio Tinto’s iron ore division, says 25 per cent of the company’s fleet has been automated to date. He adds that the steel tariff policy of President Donald Trump is unlikely to affect demand for iron ore from the Pilbara, as a small proportion of the steel output of Rio Tinto’s Asian customers is exported to the US.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

China giants to control global digital economy: McKinsey

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Original article by Lisa Murray
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Mar-18

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that China now accounts for more than 40 per cent of global e-commerce in terms of transaction value. McKinsey director Jonathan Woetzel says there is a growing view that Chinese technology companies rather than their US counterparts will become the dominant players in the global digital economy. TechSydney director Bede Moore notes that cashed-up Chinese technology companies are ramping up their investment in Asia.

CORPORATES
McKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE, TECHSYDNEY, ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LIMITED, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, WECHAT, LAZADA, TOKOPEDIA, ANT FINANCIAL, JD.COM INCORPORATED, CENTRAL GROUP OF COMPANIES, BAIDU.COM INCORPORATED