CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

RBA issues dire growth warning

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Feb-26

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest forecasts shows that the domestic economy is expected to grow by just 1.6 per cent in the year to June 2028. This is the central bank’s lowest medium-term growth outlook since it began releasing forecasts in 1990. Stephen Smith from Deloitte Access Economics notes that this compares with the Treasury’s growth forecast of 2.75 per cent in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook; he adds that a GDP hit of more than one percentage point would have "fairly material implications" for budget revenue forecasts. Meanwhile, Labor used question time on Monday to refute suggestions that rising government spending contributed to last week’s interest rate increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unions to pursue above-CPI pay rises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Nov-25

The Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s national secretary Steve Murphy has accused the Reserve Bank of being "out of touch" after it forecast that inflation will remain above its target range for at least six months and there will be negative real wages growth in 2026. He says the RBA blames workers, but "profit-driven price hikes" and "corporate greed" are the real problem. Murphy adds that despite the forecast increase in the inflation rate, the AMWU will be able to achieve real wages growth in upcoming negotiations for new enterprise agreements. The Electrical Trades Union’s national secretary Michael Wright says it also will continue to deliver real pay rises for its members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation is going north, wages south

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

‘Not confident’: RBA pours cold water on Labor’s housing dream

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Oct-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at its monetary policy board meeting yesterday. Financial markets have priced in a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in November, but RBA governor Michele Bullock says progress on returning core inflation to its mid-point target of 2.5 per cent will determine the next move on interest rates. Quarterly inflation data to be released ahead of the next board meeting is likely to be crucial. Meanwhile, Bullock has warned that federal government action to boost supply is unlikely to address the housing market’s structural deficit in the next two years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA’s grim growth warning

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Aug-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for productivity growth in the medium-term from one per cent to just 0.7 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock says lower productivity growth is already resulting in slower growth in real wages; she adds that the central bank cannot do anything to lift productivity, and the outlook for this metric will depend on what the federal government does in response to its economic reform summit next week. The RBA has also warned that the domestic economy can now sustain a GDP growth rate of just two per cent a year. Meanwhile, economists expect another official interest rate cut by the end of 2025, after the RBA reduced it by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lower interest rates a welcome relief, critical banks pass on full cut

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by
Australian Retailers Association – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

Retailers have welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s announcement of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as a vital confidence boost for the sector’ recovery. The Australian Retailers Association and the National Retail Association said that lower interest rates will encourage much-needed discretionary spending. The ARA’s CEO Chris Rodwell says the two clear messages that stem from the decision are that the RBA remain open to further cuts in 2025 – given that retail growth and consumer confidence remain subdued – and it is critical that banks act now to pass on the full rate cut. Rodwell adds that a stronger Australian economic trajectory cannot happen without a retail recovery.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobs, inflation swayed RBA on shock rates call

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 23-Jul-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy board meeting for July shows that it expects a further decline in underlying inflation by the end of 2025, which will justify more interest rate cuts. The board noted that the focus of the July meeting was on the timing and extent of further monetary policy easing. The minutes also show that factors such as the monthly inflation data and the resilience of the labour market contributed to the board’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged in July, despite widespread expectations of a 25 basis point cut.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA