CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

Treasurer’s calling but RBA puts him on hold

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Jul-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold is not the outcome that millions of Australians were hoping for and financial market had expect. Most economists had expected a rate cut on Tuesday, and financial markets had priced in a near-100 per cent chance. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock contends that traders were too focused on the monthly inflation data for June, which showed a headline rate of 2.1 per cent; she says the monthly figures are volatile and the RBA board is not yet convinced that inflation is that low in a "sustainable way". The RBA will instead wait for inflation data for the June quarter to be released at the end of this month. Six members of the monetary policy board voted to leave the cash rate at 3.85 per cent, while three favoured a rate cut.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Rate hold may take wind out of home sales

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 9-Jul-25

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday is likely to "dampen down" enthusiasm among prospective home buyers. He adds that while the decision will not led to a dramatic shift in sentiment, buyers are likely to be a bit more cautious. Oliver had thought there was an 80 per cent chance of a rate cut in July, but he expects the next cut to occur in August. Eliza Owen from Cotality believes that a rate cut next month is almost certain.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COTALITY

RBA flags spectre of recession

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 21-May-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia considered reducing the cash rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday, rather than its second 25 basis point cut so far in 2025. The central bank noted in its monetary policy statement that inflation is within its target band and is expected to remain there, so it deemed that an interest rate cut was appropriate. However, the RBA cautioned that although upside risks appear to have diminished, international developments are likely to weigh on the domestic economy. The RBA has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the year to June from two per cent to 1.8 per cent, while it has warned of an outside chance that the Trump administration’s trade war could result in a global recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

‘Locked in’: Westpac’s big interest rate cut call

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia is certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in May. She says a rate cut is likely even if inflation data for the March quarter is slightly disappointing. Ellis does not expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points in May, although she says there is the potential for a cut of 35 basis points, which would reduce the cash rate to 3.75 per cent. Ellis also expects rate cuts in both August and November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Just four economists expect the RBA to stay pat on rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 16-Apr-25

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting in May, and a 34 per cent chance of a 50 basis point cut. The general consensus of economists is also that the cash rate will be eased in May; most economists had previously expected rates to remain unchanged in May, prior to the global financial market turmoil in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs war.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Emergency RBA rate cut could cause panic

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew CranstonJack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 9-Apr-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia is believed to have ruled out an emergency board meeting in response to the global financial market turmoil in the wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs policy. Former RBA governor Bernie Fraser has advocated bringing forward the next board meeting to reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points. However, the RBA is expected to retain its existing schedule, with its next board meeting to be held on 19-20 May. Harvey Norman’s chairman Gerry Harvey contends that a large interest rate cut is not necessary and would merely weigh on financial market and consumer sentiment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIAHARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

Job losses not RBA’s priority as bank keeps rates on hold

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Age – Page: Online : 2-Apr-25

Reserve Bank of Ausralia governor Michele Bullock says that keeping inflation under control will be its top priority, after the central bank’s new monetary policy board left the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday. Bullock contends that there is no point in letting inflation rise because it would eventually result in higher unemployment. The RBA’s monetary policy statement noted that although underlying inflation is continuing to ease, the board needs to be confident that inflation will return to the middle of its target range of 2-3 per cent and stay there. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says the RBA’s interest rates decision affirms the fact that living standards have declined since Labor took office in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Traders temper rate bets after RBA holds

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 2-Apr-25

Bond market traders are now pricing in a 67 per cent chance tha the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in May, after its widely anticipated decision to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday. Money markets had put the odds of a rate cut in May at 77 per cent prior to the RBA’s latest two-day monetary policy meeting. However, market participants have still fully priced an interest rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting in July. Christian Bayliss from Fortlake Asset Management says the quarterly CPI data to be released in late April will be crucial to the decision on interest rates in May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FORTLAKE ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

RBA not in mood to keep cutting

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-25

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting in February show that it considered leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent. The RBA board subsequently concluded that the case for an interest rate cut of 25 basis points was a "stronger one". However, the minutes emphasised that further interest cuts are by no means certain, a point that the RBA also made in a statement that was released after the two-day board meeting in mid-February. Money markets have now priced in two further interest rate cuts in 2025, beginning in July; the federal election must be held no later than 17 May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

The one-cut wonder

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown, Jack Quail, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Feb-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the first official interest rate cut in more than four years will have no impact on the timing of the federal election, and that the budget is still set for 25 March. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point interest rate cut on Tuesday has provided Albanese with a trigger for an early election. RBA governor ­Michele Bullock has downplayed expectations of further interest rate relief, contending that the central bank’s board will need more evidence that inflation is falling to the middle of its 2-3 per cent target range. The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in the year to December, and the central bank now expects it to fall to 2.7 per cent in June. The election must be held no later than 17 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA