CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

Next rates move still up, RBA insists

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 6-Feb-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2019 from 3.25 per cent to around three per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent. The central bank has also advised that it now expects the unemployment rate to fall to around 4.75 per cent over the next several years, while it forecasts an underlying inflation rate of two per cent in 2019. Analysts expect official interest rates to remain on hold for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Forecasters tipping RBA will cling to its tightening bias

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 4-Feb-19

Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board to retain its bias toward tightening monetary policy when it meets on 4 February. Ticehurst also forecasts that the central bank will scale back its economic growth and inflation forecasts. The general consensus of economists is that the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent throughout 2019, although financial markets have priced in the chance of a rate cut late in the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rates rise tipped but not soon

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 27 : 31-Jan-19

There is general consensus in financial markets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent in February. However forme RBA board member John Edwards says the next movement in the cash rate will be up rather than down, although this is will not happen in the near-term. He adds that the RBA’s economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 are "quite plausible".

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Next rates move will be up: RBA’s Harper

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 24 : 30-Jan-19

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper has downplayed suggestions that the central bank could further reduce the cash rate. He says the strength of the domestic economy means that interest rates will rise, but stresses that this is his personal view. Meanwhile, Harper adds that there are no indications as yet that the downturn in residential property prices has prompted consumers to reduce their spending. Financial markets have priced in a better-than-even chance that the RBA will reduce the cash rate during 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

RBA will ignore gloom and stay a growth hawk

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 23 : 25-Jan-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is tipped to scale back its economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, after GDP growth was just 2.8 per cent year-on-year in the December 2018 quarter. The RBA had previously forecast growth of 3.5 per cent for 2018. However, the central bank is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, given that the unemployment rate eased in December. The strong labour market also means an increase in the cash rate is more likely than a cut.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Economists push rate rise to 2020

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 2-Jan-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank will leave official interest rates on hold until mid-2020. Previous expectations were for a rate rise in the second half of 2019. However, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is one of three economists who expect the central bank to reduce the cash rate in 2019. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to increase interest rates twice in 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, QIC LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

RBA to cut its 3.25pc growth forecast, economists say

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 20-Dec-18

Janu Chan of St George Bank is among the economists who expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to scale back its economic growth forecast of 3.25 per cent for 2018-19 at its first board meeting in 2019. This follows lower-than-expected GDP growth for the September quarter. The central bank’s monetary policy meeting in February will take into account the latest inflation and employment data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

New housing loans drop 7.4pc in quarter

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 13-Dec-18

A new report from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that $89.2bn worth of new mortgage loans were written in the September quarter, which is 7.4 per cent lower than previously. However, authorised deposit-taking institutions have reported a 5.4 per cent increase in the total value of housing loans in the year to September. Chris Bedingfield of Quay Global Investors says the annual rate of house construction is now too high, given that banks are tightening their lending criteria. He adds that the Reserve Bank is now more likely to reduce rather than raise the cash rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, QUAY GLOBAL INVESTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Expect the RBA to hold fire on rates

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 27 : 13-Dec-18

The Reserve Bank is still more likely to tighten rather than ease monetary policy, despite recent comments by governor Philip Lowe. He was most likely just outlining how the central bank could be expected to respond – including the potential for quantitative easing – in the event of an economic downturn. Although the Reserve Bank is still concerned about issues such as an emerging credit crunch, the odds still favour a rate rise, although this is unlikely to be for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA set to freeze rates trigger

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 10-Dec-18

Factors such as Australia’s sluggish GDP growth in the September quarter and the outlook for the housing market have prompted some economists and market analysts to forecast that official interest rates will remain on hold until 2020. They include Paul Bloxham of HSBC and Daniel Blake and Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley. However, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the cash rate to be cut rather than increased, most likely in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT