Fed chief Powell stays put with policy for now

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 19-Jul-18

US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has signalled that the central bank will retain its stated policy of increasing interest rates gradually, at least for now. The potential for a full-blown trade war with China appears to be the main reason for Powell’s caveat of "for now". Meanwhile, UBS forecasts that the Reserve Bank of Australia would most likely delay tightening monetary policy until beyond 2020 in the event of a full trade war.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

RBA flags risk of record household debt

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Jul-18

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for July indicate that although the central bank expects to begin tightening monetary policy, it is in no hurry to do so. The minutes also show that high levels of household debt continues to be a concern for the central bank. It noted that while an increase in the cash rate could be expected to reduce consumer spending, the high level of debt means a rate cut may not necessarily result in increased spending.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Tension may turn RBA dovish

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Jul-18

JP Morgan expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent until at least June 2019. However, JPMorgan analysts have indicated that the US-China trade war could adversely affect global economic growth. A slowdown in global growth could in turn prompt a fall in the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which has traditionally influenced the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decisions.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED

Treasury boss warns against RBA rises

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 13-Jul-18

Economists have been urging the Reserve Bank of Australia to use the opportunity afforded to it by the nation’s strong economy to lift interest rates. They are concerned that failure to do so will leave it struggling to respond to any future financial crisis. RBA governor Philip Lowe has made it clear that rates will not go up until inflation rises, while outgoing Treasury secretary John Fraser has also warned against calls for rate increases.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Rates must rise, APRA veteran says

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 11-Jul-18

Jeffrey Carmichael is the latest monetary policy expert to have urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin increasing official interest rates. The inaugural chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has warned of the economic risks of failing to begin raising the cash rate when other central banks are doing so. He has suggested that there may be a need for up to eight rate rises, but stresses the need to do so gradually. He adds that the domestic economy is strong enough to absorb rate rises without any significant risk. Carmichael worked at the RBA for two decades.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, PROMONTORY AUSTRALASIA PTY LTD

RBA holds rates firm, defying global trend

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 4-Jul-18

Financial markets have priced in little chance of monetary policy tightening by April 2019 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent on 3 July. Economists note that the wording of the statement issued by governor Philip Lowe was largely similar to the previous month. Lowe reiterated that progress in reducing the unemployment rate and lifting inflation to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent is likely to be gradual. He also noted the potential for a trade war to impact on global economic growth

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Property fall tipped to soften RBA

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-Jul-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent on 3 July. However, the central bank’s so-called "shadow board" believes that there is a strong case for the cash rate to be increased immediately, given factors such as low wages growth, low unemployment and an inflation rate that is within the RBA’s target range. Meanwhile, new data shows that there was an 0.3 per cent decline in house prices in major cities during June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, MONASH UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY

No RBA rate hikes for a year

Original article by Vesna Poljak, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 20 : 2-Jul-18

A quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent until June 2019. The cash rate is now expected to reach two per cent by the end of 2019. However, former ANZ Bank chief economist Warren Hogan expects one rate increase by mid-2019, arguing that the RBA needs to begin the process of normalising monetary policy. Matthew Peter of QIC also expects one rate rise in the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, QIC LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

RBA sidelined as cost of money rises

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Jun-18

Futures market pricing suggests that investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep official interest rates on hold until late 2019. However, the gap between the cash rate and the bank bill swap rate has increased to 61 basis points, compared with an average of 18 basis points for much of the last decade. The rise in the BBSW may eventually prompt Australia’s major banks to increase their mortgage interest rates independently of the RBA, with several of the nation’s smaller lenders having already done so.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, ME BANK, AMP BANK LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Digital cash not on RBA agenda

Original article by David Swan
The Australian – Page: 29 : 27-Jun-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of payments policy has downplayed the prospect that the central bank will introduce a digital version of the Australian dollar. Tony Richard says the RBA does not believe that there would be sufficient demand for a digital currency at present. He adds that a digital currency would have implications for the RBA’s financial stability mandate and the structure of the financial sector. Several fintech companies advocated the introduction of a digital Australian dollar in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FINTECH AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AGRIDIGITAL, OTHERA, AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED