CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

RBA needs to cut official interest rate to 1.5pc: ANZ

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Sep-15

The ANZ Bank says Australia’s unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent is unlikely to fall significantly in the near-term due to factors such as slowing global economic growth and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. Chief economist Warren Hogan warns that the unemployment rate could potentially rise over the next year or so. ANZ believes that a combination of factors means the Reserve Bank will have to reduce the cash rate in both February and May 2016.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$A overshoots as iron ore export volumes up again

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 10-Sep-15

The Australian dollar is trading at around $US0.70, having recently fallen to $US0.6896. However, Annette Beacher of TD Securities argues that the rebound in the iron ore price means the currency should be trading at the $US0.76 level. Meanwhile, Beacher says the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the cash rate at two per cent in the wake of the currency’s recent downturn.

CORPORATES
TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GROUP OF TEN (G-10)

Reserve Bank calls out big banks on high credit card profits

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 20-Aug-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia says interest rates on credit cards, which spiked after the global financial crisis, have remained high despite the fall in the cash rate since then. Advertised rates have risen from 16 per cent eight years ago to about 20 per cent on standard credit cards. It is estimated the "spread" the banks earn on cards above the cost of funding them has risen from about six percentage points in 2007 to nine in the March quarter of 2015.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RETAIL FINANCE INTELLIGENCE PTY LTD

RBA moves to cool housing will take time

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Aug-15

Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes of the July 2015 board meeting suggest that the central bank is likely to continue to keep the official interest rate at its current record low. The fall in the Australian dollar of five per cent against the US currency in June 2015 is expected to stimulate exports. The central bank noted that low interest rates had led to house price inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Canada, NZ moves point to more RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 17-Jul-15

The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.7354 on 16 July 2015, after the Bank of Canada reduced its cash rate to 0.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely tipped to ease monetary policy in July, and economists suggest that this may prompt further rate cuts in Australia before the end of the year. Citigroup anticipates a rate cut of 25 basis points in November, while Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Australian dollar will test the $US0.65 level by the end of 2016.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF CANADA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Economists adjust bets on another rate cut

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Jul-15

The interest rate swap market has priced in an 88 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points by the end of 2015. The market now also regards a rate cut in April 2016 as a certainty. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura Australia expects an interest rate cut in November, while Paul Dales of Capital Economics also anticipates further monetary policy easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

RBA likely to hold as no vote drives down Aussie

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 7-Jul-15

The shadow board of the Reserve Bank of Australia estimates that there is a 57 per cent chance that the central bank will leave the cash rate unchanged on 7 July 2015. Shadow board chairman Timo Henckel says the economic outlook for China is a bigger issue for Australia than the debt crisis in Greece. The Australian dollar’s fall below $US0.76 in the wake of Greece’s referendum will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA tool blunted: ANZ

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Jun-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy of reducing interest rates was intended to encourage consumers to spend. However, ANZ Bank economists have concluded that people nearing retirement are in fact saving rather than spending. They also note that older Australians are also saving more as a result of uncertainty concerning superannuation policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA must cut again to weaken $A as Fed takes dovish view

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 19-Jun-15

Many Australian economists now expect the US Federal Reserve to delay a rate cut until December 2015, in the wake of its June monetary policy meeting. The central bank gave indications that any rate rises over the next several years will be at a slower pace than previously expected. This in turn has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank will further reduce interest rates, in order to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

RBA reveals why boards won’t invest

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Jemima Whyte, Jenny Wiggins, Anne Hyland, Yolanda Redrup, Perry Williams, Agnes King
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 19-Jun-15

Research by the Reserve Bank of Australia has examined factors that deter companies from making capital investments. Some 90 per cent of companies said they would only commit to new investment if the hurdle rate is at least 10 per cent. However, the central bank notes that some companies are applying outdated hurdle rates that do not reflect current interest rates. Computershare tries to maintain its return on capital at a certain level, according to CFO Mark Davis, but is open to revising it when this is deemed to be necessary.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED – ASX TNE, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX AZJ, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD