Yuletide bounce falls flat for shops

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 3 : 24-Dec-19

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver says the bushfire crisis is likely to affect consumer sentiment during the retail sector’s crucial Christmas trading period. He notes that consumer confidence had already been dampened by factors such as low wages growth, a high underemployment rate and economic uncertainty. The Australian Retailers Association has forecast that consumer spending will by rise 2.6 per cent to $52.7bn between 14 November and 24 December, while it expects spending at post-Christmas sales to rise 2.4 per cent to $18.7bn.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

What do kids want for Christmas? Netflix, iPads & iPhones

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-19

Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas spending predictions, released in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association, show that Australians are expected to spend nearly $53 billion in the lead-up to Christmas. This is up 2.6% on a year ago, and well above the latest ABS inflation level of 1.7%. Meanwhile, streaming service Netflix has topped the Kids’ Cool List in Roy Morgan’s Young Australians Survey for a second straight year; Netflix was nominated as ‘really cool’ by 66% of 6-13 year olds (up 3% points on 2018) and more than 70% of 10-13 year olds. In second place is former Number 1 (in 2016), the Apple iPad on 60%, followed by the Apple iPhone on 53%. Netflix is in top spot for both girls and boys, ahead of the iPad, with girls putting the Apple iPhone in third spot, although for boys it is the Sony PlayStation 4 that takes third spot. More than twice as many boys as girls say they consider the PlayStation 4 ‘really cool’. With around 2,500 young respondents per year, Roy Morgan’s Young Australians Survey has been measuring the changing tastes, opinions and activities of Aussie kids for many years, proving to be an invaluable resource for both retailers and parents keen to ensure they know what children and teens want.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, APPLE INCORPORATED, SONY COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Stagnant wages and rising debt point to weak Christmas spending

Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 19-Dec-19

Research by the Commonwealth Bank shows that 12 per cent of Australian adults will do most of their Christmas shopping at the last minute. Meanwhile, 26 per cent will look for discounts to save money on their Christmas shopping. The Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist Michael Blythe says growth in consumer spending is likely to be weak in 2019. Jim Stanford from the Centre for Future Work says factors such as small pay rises and high debt have prompted consumers to reduce their spending.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED. CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK

Dollar’s fall lifts retailers’ spirits

Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 21 : 10-Dec-14

The latest Deloitte Access Economics retail forecasts study shows that the sector can expect higher margins during the 2014 Christmas period, due to the fall of the Australian dollar against the US currency. The overall sales growth figure for the calendar year is tipped to be 5.4%, compared with 3% on average per annum since 2010. The Australian National Retailers Association (ANRA) also forecasts turnover in the second week of December to reach $A7.6bn. However ANRA CEO Anna McPhee notes that retail sector margins have declined in the past three years

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL RETAILERS ASSOCIATION LIMITED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

2019 Christmas retail sales to grow 2.6% to $52.7 billion

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-19

Roy Morgan’s annual Christmas retail sales forecasts conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association indicate that Australians will spend over $52.7 billion across retail stores during the Christmas trading period. This is an increase of 2.6% from the $51.4 billion of retail expenditure during the 2018 Christmas trading period. Growth in retail expenditure is predicted across all six categories measured, with spending on Food expected to grow by 3.2% from a year ago to nearly $21.7 billion. Also set to grow strongly will be Apparel, including clothing, footwear and accessories, up 3% to almost $4.2 billion. Hospitality businesses are forecast to grow by 2.3% to an expenditure of well over $7.4 billion, and an impressive $8.8 billion is expected to be spent on Household Goods this Christmas, an increase of 0.6% from a year ago. Department stores are set to experience slower growth than other categories, up by 0.5%, to overall spending of almost $3 billion. The category combining ‘Other retailing’, which includes online retailing, is predicted to experience the fastest growth of all, up by 3.7% to spending of over $7.6 billion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Roy Morgan predicts Christmas sales within 0.1% – again

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Roy Morgan’s 2018 retail sales forecast, undertaken in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), predicted total retail sales growth of 2.9% to $51.479 billion for the most important retailing period of the year from 9 November to Christmas Eve. This is just 0.1% higher than the 2.8% growth achieved. The accuracy for 2018 matches the accuracy of a year ago, when Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas sales forecasts were also within 0.1% of the actual retail sales for the period. There was growth across five of the six categories measured in the pre-Christmas period in 2018, with spending on Food growing the fastest, up 4% to $20.979 billion. Also growing impressively was the Clothing, Footwear & Accessories category, which grew 3.8% to $4.056 billion, while Other Retailing grew by 3.5% to $7.375 billion. All three of these categories grew at a slightly greater rate than Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas forecasts. The Roy Morgan-ARA Christmas sales forecasts are based on data taken from the ABS Retail Trade Catalogue 8501.0. Note that online sales through Australian retail stores are included in the retail figures. Sales forecasts are determined by historical retail trade data from the ABS, Roy Morgan’s Consumer Confidence and unemployment data, and various other data relating to macro-economic conditions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Hayne gets blame for retail spending squeeze

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Jan-19

Australian retailers had mixed fortunes during the crucial Christmas shopping period, according to analysts. Data from ShopperTrak shows that shopping centres recorded a 12.2 per cent decline in customer traffic in December, including a 23 per cent fall in the week to December 30. Meanwhile, retail adviser James Stewart says factors such as falling house prices and tighter access to credit in the wake of the financial services royal commission are weighing on consumer spending. He adds that more retailers are likely to go into administration in 2019 following the recent collapse of clothing chain Ed Harry.

CORPORATES
SHOPPERTRAK INCORPORATED, ED HARRY MENSWEAR, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED – ASX MHJ, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, THE PAS GROUP LIMITED – ASX PGR, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Retailers hope for big bang finish

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-18

The Australian Retailers Association expects consumers to spend nearly $15bn during the last five trading days before Christmas. It still anticipates that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. Many retailers are also counting on a spike in sales during the final days before Christmas, after less price discounting than in 2017. Meanwhile, Craig Woolford of Citigroup says consumers may spend less during the traditional post-Christmas clearance sales due to the impact of recent online promotions such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, VEND LIMITED, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, REBEL SPORT LIMITED

2018 Christmas retails sales to grow 2.9% to $51.5 billion

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

Roy Morgan’s annual Christmas retail sales forecasts indicate that Australians will spend nearly $51.5bn across retail stores during the 46-day Christmas trading period from November 9-December 24. This is 2.9% than the $50bn of retail expenditure during the 2017 Christmas trading period. Growth in retail expenditure is predicted across all six categories measured, with spending on Food expected to grow the fastest (3.7%) from a year ago to nearly $21 billion. Also expected to enjoy strong growth are Hospitality businesses (up 3.2% to over $7.3bn) and Apparel & Household Goods (up 3.1% to $4bn). The Christmas retail sales forecasts are conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Festive joy for Myer, JB Hi-Fi

Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 6-Jan-17

Australian retailers recorded solid sales during Christmas. Citi analysts have found that department store Myer and electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi performed particularly well. Wesfarmers’ Target and Harvey Norman used discounting to entice shoppers to their stores. In their 2016-17 profit estimates, Citi analysts are optimistic about Myer and pessimistic about OrotonGroup and Specialty Fashion.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOOD GUYS, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED – ASX SFH, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES