LNG exports, prices surge to record levels as iron slumps

Original article by Perry Williams, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 7-Sep-21

The price of iron ore has fallen by more than 40 per cent since reaching a record high of $US233 per tonne in May. Federal Resources Minister Keith Pitt says strong growth in the price of both LNG and coal is helping to offset the slump in the price of iron ore. The LNG price in Asia has risen to nearly $US20 a gigajoule, while the price of Newcastle coal recently reached a record high of $US173 a tonne. Queensland’s LNG export projects have ramped up shipments in response to the surge in prices.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE, ENERGY AND RESOURCES

Coal, hard cash rolls in as thermal prices surge higher

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 11-Aug-21

The price of thermal coal has rallied since May, amid strong demand in Europe and China. Dylan Kelly of Ord Minnett notes that the price rally has boosted the cash flows of major Australian thermal coal producers; he adds that seasonal restocking in key markets could push the coal price higher in the near-term. However, ratings agency Fitch Solutions expects the price of thermal coal to peak by the end of 2021.

CORPORATES
ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, FITCH SOLUTIONS INCORPORATED

Price collapse burying 31pc of coal mines

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 16 : 11-May-20

The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a sharp fall in demand from major thermal coal buyers such as Japan and India. This has in turn seen the price of top quality coal from New South Wales and Queensland falling by 27 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. Rory Simington of Wood Mackenzie estimates that about 31 per cent of Australia’s thermal coal exports are unprofitable at current prices. He adds that a significant proportion of Australia’s coal output is sold via long-term contracts. However, the recent price falls will eventually flow through to future contracts.

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WOOD MACKENZIE

Coal, alumina prices look sick on virus effects

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 28-Apr-20

The prices of Australia’s key commodity exports have retreated in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The price of premium hard coking coal was recently trading at $US122.8 per tonne, compared with $US210 per tonne in early May 2019. Likewise, the price of premium thermal coal shipped through the port of Newcastle has fallen to $US56 per tonne, down from more than $US120 per tonne in mid-2018. The alumina price has in turn fallen to $US226 per tonne, compared with more than $US600 per tonne in 2018. Increased supply from China after the nation’s lockdown restrictions were eased has contributed to the price weakness.

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Surplus powered by iron ore and coal

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-19

Ernst & Young expects the federal Budget’s bottom line to be $9.2bn better off over the next two years than Treasury had forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The firm’s modelling of the Budget outcome is based on factors such as the price of iron ore and coal. Iron ore has averaged $US72 per tonne so far in 2018-19, compared with the MYEFO forecast of $U55/tonne. The price of metallurgical coal is also trading well above the MYEFO forecast so far in the current financial year.

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ERNST AND YOUNG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Glencore’s carbon cash cow: coal prices rising

Original article by Paul Garvey, Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 22-Feb-19

Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg says the Switzerland-based miner’s decision to cap annual coal production is likely to put upward pressure on coal prices, particular if global demand continues to increase. He notes that many other mining companies are also curbing coal output or seeking to divest coal assets. Dominic O’Kane of JP Morgan agrees that Glencore’s move could bolster coal prices, as well Glencore shareholders’ returns. Glencore has indicated that it has no plans to sell any of its coal mines or buy additional mines, although it has not ruled out increasing its stake in existing joint ventures.

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GLENCORE PLC, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, CLIMATE ACTION 100+, CHURCH OF ENGLAND, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, WORLD COAL COUNCIL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Thermal coal prices set to rebound this year

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 19-Feb-19

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the value of the nation’s coal exports rose to a record $66.2bn in 2018. Meanwhile, Viktor Tanevski of Wood Mackenzie forecasts that demand for bituminous thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific region will rise by three million tonnes in 2019. He also expects the price of high-energy Australian thermal coal to recover to $US98 per tonne after testing the $US88 level earlier in 2019.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WOOD MACKENZIE, MACH ENERGY, GLENCORE PLC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32

King coal now tops export earners

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 24 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s minerals and energy exports rose to a record $193bn in 2018. The value of coal exports topped $66.2bn, surpassing iron ore as Australia’s biggest export earner for the first time. Mining companies benefited from a rally in thermal and coking coal prices in 2018. However, prices have since fallen, while the iron ore price has rallied in 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

China’s coal clamps no surprise, says Yancoal

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Oct-18

James Rickards, Yancoal Australia’s general manager of investor relations, does not expect coal prices to be significantly affected by China’s move to reduce thermal coal imports. He argues that it had been widely anticipated, as the Chinese government tends to curb coal imports every year in order to support local producers. Meanwhile, Lachlan Shaw of UBS says Chinese demand for thermal coal is likely to remain strong during the upcoming northern winter.

CORPORATES
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Resources bull run ‘won’t last’

Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 43 : 9-May-18

The Federal Government’s Budget bottom line has been bolstered by stronger-than-expected commodity prices, although its economic forecasts for coming years are based on expectations of a fall in the price of iron ore and metallurgical coal. The Budget papers also forecast that Australia’s terms of trade will rise by 1.5 per cent in 2017-18, followed by a decline over the next four years, including a 5.25 per cent fall in 2018-19. The Budget also notes that the global price of oil will have a greater influence on Australia’s export revenue in coming years as the nation’s LNG exports increase.

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