Resources set to drive ASX to 8000 at year’s end

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 9-Jul-21

Mike Aked of global investment manager Research Affiliates says Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index could rise above 8,000 points by the end of 2021. He expects the resources sector to drive the local market higher, on the back of the continued strength of commodity prices. Financial stocks have been the main driver of the local bourse’s recent rally, although the materials sector has surged in the last several weeks amid a rebound in the prices of commodities such as iron ore and copper.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESEARCH AFFILIATES LLC

China price blitz raises iron ore threat

Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 25-May-21

The price of iron ore futures fell on 24 May after Chinese authorities announced plans to crack down on commodity price speculation by domestic traders and firms. The crackdown is also seen as an attempt to curb inflation, with China’s producer price index having risen 6.8 per cent year-on-year in April, compared to 4.4 per cent growth recorded in March. Traders expect the clampdown on commodity price speculation will impact on futures trading, but it is not expected to undermine strong demand for iron ore, which is being driven by "tight supply". The share prices of Australian iron ore producers also fell sharply.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Coal, alumina prices look sick on virus effects

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 28-Apr-20

The prices of Australia’s key commodity exports have retreated in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The price of premium hard coking coal was recently trading at $US122.8 per tonne, compared with $US210 per tonne in early May 2019. Likewise, the price of premium thermal coal shipped through the port of Newcastle has fallen to $US56 per tonne, down from more than $US120 per tonne in mid-2018. The alumina price has in turn fallen to $US226 per tonne, compared with more than $US600 per tonne in 2018. Increased supply from China after the nation’s lockdown restrictions were eased has contributed to the price weakness.

CORPORATES

Miners to bear the brunt of China woes

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 25 : 29-Jan-20

The coronavirus crisis has weighed on the shares of Australian resources groups that have exposure to China. Shares in Rio Tinto have closed below $100 for the first time since mid-December, while BHP, Fortescue Metals Group, OZ Minerals and Sandfire Resources also retreated on 28 January. The prices of iron ore and base metals have also fallen in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Macquarie notes that based on the SARS pandemic, base metal prices may take 3-5 months to recover from their recent losses.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Miners tipping China’s winter halts to ease

Original article by Peter Ker, Brad Thompson, Mike Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 28-Oct-19

Fortescue Metals Group COO Greg Lilleyman says China’s annual winter shutdown of industries such as steel-making is likely to have less impact on commodity prices than in recent years. He adds that it is hard to predict the extent of the shutdowns, given that much of the responsibility for implementing the policy to improve air quality has been delegated to provincial governments. South32 CEO Graham Kerr says that some winter production cuts are likely, but he adds that China is also likely to prioritise economic growth.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, WOOD MACKENZIE

Record trade surplus of $4.8b thanks to iron ore

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-19

New figures show that Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $4.8bn in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of just $3.7bn. The result was boosted by an 11 per cent increase in the value of iron ore exports. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects commodity prices to rise further, and that the forecasts outlined in the April 2019 Budget will prove to be too conservative. Meanwhile, services exports rose by two per cent in February, while there was a one per cent decline in rural exports.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron and coal to deliver surprise budget bonanza

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 12-Feb-19

Federal government revenue will be boosted by the recent rally in the prices of Australia’s key export commodities. The mid-year budget update had forecast that the iron ore price would average $US55 per tonne in the first half of 2019, but it is widely tipped to reach $US100/tonne in coming days. The price of coking coal also remains well above the budget update’s forecast. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics expects the government to use the revenue gains to provide cash hand-outs in the April 2019 Budget.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Aussie tipped to dive 15pc this year

Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 25-Jan-19

Capital Economics has downgraded its forecast for the Australian dollar in 2019. The firm has warned that the currency could test $US0.60 and remain at around this level in 2020. It had previously expected the currency to trade at about $US0.65 in 2019 and $US0.70 in the following year. Capital Economics is also bearish about the outlook for Australia’s key export commodities, iron ore and coal, while it expects official interest rate cuts in 2019.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Trump makes a year of heavy metal

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 15 : 2-Jan-19

Commodity prices fell for the seventh year out of the last 11 during 2018. The prices of metals such as zinc, copper and aluminium in particular fell sharply, although supply constraints resulted in strong gains for both coking and thermal coal. The US-China trade war weighed on commodity markets, and the outlook for 2019 may depend to a large extent on the actions of US President Donald Trump. Daniel Hynes of the ANZ Bank and Glyn Lawcock of UBS are upbeat about the outlook for base metals prices in 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

BHP cuts US, China growth targets on trade tensions

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 31-Oct-18

BHP Billiton has forecast that GDP growth for both China and the US will be cut by 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent over the next two years as a result of the trade war between the two nations. However, BHP’s chief commercial officer Arnoud Balhuizen says the trade tensions have not yet had a "material impact" on the resources giant, even though it has weighed on the prices of some commodities. Balhuizen expects demand for iron ore and coking coal to remain strong in 2019.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP