Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-19
New figures show that Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $4.8bn in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of just $3.7bn. The result was boosted by an 11 per cent increase in the value of iron ore exports. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects commodity prices to rise further, and that the forecasts outlined in the April 2019 Budget will prove to be too conservative. Meanwhile, services exports rose by two per cent in February, while there was a one per cent decline in rural exports.
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY
Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 12-Feb-19
Federal government revenue will be boosted by the recent rally in the prices of Australia’s key export commodities. The mid-year budget update had forecast that the iron ore price would average $US55 per tonne in the first half of 2019, but it is widely tipped to reach $US100/tonne in coming days. The price of coking coal also remains well above the budget update’s forecast. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics expects the government to use the revenue gains to provide cash hand-outs in the April 2019 Budget.
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA
Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 25-Jan-19
Capital Economics has downgraded its forecast for the Australian dollar in 2019. The firm has warned that the currency could test $US0.60 and remain at around this level in 2020. It had previously expected the currency to trade at about $US0.65 in 2019 and $US0.70 in the following year. Capital Economics is also bearish about the outlook for Australia’s key export commodities, iron ore and coal, while it expects official interest rate cuts in 2019.
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 15 : 2-Jan-19
Commodity prices fell for the seventh year out of the last 11 during 2018. The prices of metals such as zinc, copper and aluminium in particular fell sharply, although supply constraints resulted in strong gains for both coking and thermal coal. The US-China trade war weighed on commodity markets, and the outlook for 2019 may depend to a large extent on the actions of US President Donald Trump. Daniel Hynes of the ANZ Bank and Glyn Lawcock of UBS are upbeat about the outlook for base metals prices in 2019.
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE
Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 31-Oct-18
BHP Billiton has forecast that GDP growth for both China and the US will be cut by 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent over the next two years as a result of the trade war between the two nations. However, BHP’s chief commercial officer Arnoud Balhuizen says the trade tensions have not yet had a "material impact" on the resources giant, even though it has weighed on the prices of some commodities. Balhuizen expects demand for iron ore and coking coal to remain strong in 2019.
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP
Original article by Matt Chambers, Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 15 & 21 : 24-Jan-18
The latest Mining Business Outlook survey by Newport Consulting shows that mining company executives are upbeat about the outlook for commodity prices in 2018. The survey found that 75 per cent of respondents are "cautiously optimistic" and 17 per cent are "very optimistic" about the outlook. Meanwhile, 42 per cent of respondents expect to "moderately" increase spending in 2018, and about 25 per cent intend to hire additional staff. CEOs in the manufacturing, construction and services industries are also positive about the outlook in 2018, according to a separate survey by the Australian Industry Group.
NEWPORT CONSULTING PTY LTD, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 9-Jan-18
The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index has outperformed the broader Australian sharemarket over the last two years, and Macquarie Equities is bullish about the outlook for mining stocks in 2018. The firm believes that major resources groups will have the scope to increase their capital returns to shareholders if the spot prices of key commodities remain at around current levels. Macquarie has maintained its "outperform" rating for both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, while Fortescue Metals Group is its preferred stock among pure-play miners.
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 MATERIALS INDEX, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, METALS X LIMITED – ASX MLX, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, ST BARBARA LIMITED – ASX SBM, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, NEOMETALS LIMITED – ASX NMT, OROCOBRE LIMITED – ASX ORE, WESTERN AREAS LIMITED – ASX WSA, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC
Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 9-Nov-17
Mining and energy stocks have been a major contributor to the Australian sharemarket’s rise above 6,000 points, with the price of both Brent crude oil and iron ore rebounding in recent weeks. Lachlan Shaw of UBS expects demand for commodities in China to remain strong, despite expectations of a slight decline in the nation’s economic growth, while David Lafferty of Natixis Asset Management notes that the world is currently experiencing synchronised economic growth.
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIXIS ASSET MANAGEMENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX
Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 10-Jan-17
The rebound in the price of iron ore and coking coal will boost the profits of mining companies in fiscal 2017. Anna Kassianos of Platypus Asset Management says investors should not expect a significant rise in dividends, arguing that some of the increased earnings are likely to be retained to invest in growth strategies and maintenance work that was deferred when commodities prices retreated. Bloomberg expects BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and South32 to be among the miners that increase their dividends.
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BLOOMBERG LP, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Jan-17
The office of the chief economist, Mark Cully, has released a report which forecasts that Australia’s mining and energy exports will reach a record $A203.9bn in 2016-17. This compares with just $A157.1bn in the previous financial year. The prices of key commodities such as iron ore and coal have rallied since a previous report had forecast that the value of mining and energy exports would total $A163.4bn in 2016-17. However, Cully expects the average price of both commodities to fall in 2017.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS