CREDIT RATINGS – AUSTRALIA

AAA: Six months to get budget under control

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Jul-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison says the Federal Government will still aim to achieve a Budget surplus in 2020-21, in order to avert the loss of Australia’s coveted triple-A credit rating. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the nation’s credit rating outlook to "negative" and warned that it will closely monitor the government’s fiscal performance over the next 6-12 months. The ratings agency also indicated that Australia’s "AAA" rating may be at risk due to the nation’s rising foreign debt.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Hung parliament lifts risk of credit downgrade

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Jul-16

Standard & Poor’s is tipped to review Australia’s "AAA" credit rating in the wake of the federal election. S&P has indicated that the nation’s credit rating may be downgraded unless the next government can implement measures to reduce the Budget deficit. Fitch Ratings has also warned of the potential for a downgrade if a hung parliament results in policies that further increase the deficit. However, Moody’s notes that Australia’s government debt remains much lower than the majority of developed economies.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

$1 trillion foreign debt a rating risk

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-May-16

Rating agencies have indicated that Australia’s ballooning foreign debt could prompt a review of the nation’s coveted "AAA" credit rating. Australia’s foreign debt has risen from 50 per cent of GDP to 62 per cent over the last three years, and it is now around $A1trn. Banks account for more than 50 per cent of Australia’s foreign debt, while the federal and state governments account for 25 per cent.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Tables turn: Now Labor promises to protect AAA rating

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-May-16

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen will address the National Press Club on 10 May 2016, where he will deliver his reply to the Australian Government’s Budget. Bowen will indicate that if the Opposition wins the federal election it will release the mid-year budget update by October, rather than in December. He will stress the need to reduce the Budget deficit in order to ensure that Australia retains its coveted triple-A credit rating. He will also question the merits of the Government’s proposal to progressively reduce the corporate tax rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA), AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Woolies hit by ratings downgrade

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 & 32 : 5-May-16

Standard & Poor’s has reduced the long-term credit rating of Woolworths from "BBB+" to " BBB". S&P had previously downgraded the Australian retail giant’s credit rating in August 2015. Rival ratings agency Moody’s will also review its "Baa2" rating on the stock, having downgraded it from "Baa1" in March 2016. The bearish sentiment follows Woolworths’ disappointing financial results for the March quarter. Analysts in turn have reduced their earnings forecasts for 2016 and 2017.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Ratings groups keep their powder dry

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-May-16

Rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s will assess the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget before deciding whether to review the nation’s coveted "AAA" credit rating. National Australia Bank’s Alan Oster says the Budget measures should be sufficient to avoid a ratings downgrade, but adds that Australia’s credit rating outlook could potentially be revised. Meanwhile, Moody’s forecasts 3.7 per cent growth in nominal GDP in 2016-17, while the Treasury expects 4.25 per cent growth.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, TD SECURITIES, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Woodside, Origin under ratings pressure after Fitch downgrades

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 26-Apr-16

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the credit ratings outlook of both Woodside Petroleum and Origin Energy from "stable" to negative. The two groups currently boast credit ratings of "BBB+" and "BBB" respectively. Fitch expects further volatility in the crude oil price and says it is unlikely to rebound for some time. However, Bernstein Research is upbeat about the outlook for the oil price.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED

Spending and taxing failures risk AAA: Moody’s

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Apr-16

Ratings agency Moody’s expects Australia’s debt to rise to about 38 per cent of GDP, compared with 35 per cent at present. Moody’s analyst Marie Diron notes that this has risen from just 11.6 per cent over the last decade, while the debt of other countries with a triple-A credit rating has averaged 41 per cent over this period. Diron adds that the Federal Government is unlikely to return the Budget to surplus by 2021 unless there is an increase in taxes.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Budget cuts needed for AAA: JPMorgan

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 14-Apr-16

Australia’s credit rating has not been downgraded since 1986, but Sally Auld of JP Morgan warns that the nation’s Budget deficit, national debt and current account deficit are now at similar or higher levels. She says Australia’s coveted triple-A credit rating may be at risk unless the May 2016 Budget includes additional reductions in government expenditure. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund says export-focused countries must reduce government spending in anticipation that commodity prices will remain low for some time.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

AAA credit rating at risk from rising public debt

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Apr-16

Australia’s credit rating has not been downgraded since 1989, but Peter Jolly of National Australia Bank has warned that the nation’s public debt may put the coveted triple-A rating at risk. Jolly says public debt is now higher than the level which prompted the ratings downgrades in 1986 and 1989, and he stresses that the Federal Government’s May 2016 Budget must rein in spending. Treasurer Scott Morrison says spending constraint will be a feature of the Budget.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION