Alarm over debt to GDP ratio

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-May-16

Analysis by Morgan Stanley suggests that each additional $A1 of GDP in 2015 cost more than $A9 of debt to generate. Morgan Stanley economist Daniel Blake says Australia must find ways to generate economic growth that are less dependent on debt. He warns that the decline in the productivity of Australia’s debt is likely to increase the severity of any economic downturn that may occur. He also argues that tax incentives should encourage investment in innovation and business start-ups rather than residential property.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Spending spree lifts economy to highest speed in two years

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Mar-16

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the December 2015 quarter, and by three per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for annual growth of just 2.5 per cent. Economic growth was boosted by an increase in government and consumer spending, although the household savings rate fell to a post-global financial crisis low of 7.6 per cent. The stronger-than-expected economic growth rate will reduce the chances of further official interest rate cuts in the near-term.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GROUP OF SEVEN (G-7), ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

RBA’s Stevens sees hope in jobs growth

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 16-Dec-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its economic growth forecast in November 2015, but governor Glenn Stevens does not believe another downgrade is needed in the near-term. Stevens has also given indications that further interest rate cuts may not be necessary in the current monetary policy cycle, noting that the unemployment rate is well below the central bank’s expectations earlier in 2015. He adds that the downturn in commodity prices may put further downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Beyond the boom: life in economy

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Dec-15

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by 0.9 per cent in the September 2015 quarter, and 2.5 per cent year-on-year. The quarterly GDP data bolstered both the Australian dollar and the local sharemarket on 2 December, while it will also help improve the Budget bottom line. Meanwhile, domestic demand has risen by 4.2 per cent in Victoria and 2.6 per cent in New South. However, the decline in capital investment in the resources sector has resulted in domestic demand falling in Western Australia and Queensland.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Sober outlook for economy

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 25-Nov-15

Australia’s trend growth rate has usually been regarded as being around three per cent. However, the Treasury has confirmed that the December 2015 Budget update will be based on expectations of a potential growth rate of 2.75 per cent. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens forecasts that investment yields and global interest rates will remain low for some time. He has also warned Baby Boomers that they cannot expect to keep enjoying growth in dividends unless the companies they invest in are prepared to embrace more risk.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, GREAT BRITAIN. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Treasurer hints at lower economic growth trend

Original article by Jacob Greber, Primrose Riordan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Nov-15

The Australian economy’s trend growth rate has traditionally been regarded as being around 3.25 per cent. Treasurer Scott Morrison says the economy is currently expanding by 2.3 per cent, but this would need to rise above three per cent for government revenue to be sufficient to balance the Budget. The Treasury has previously forecast that the Budget will return to deficit by the early 2020s, although this is based on an economic growth rate of 3.5 per cent over the five years from 2018-19.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD

Budget blowout of $5b if growth 3pc

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-Nov-15

The Australian economy’s trend growth rate has traditionally been regarded as 3.25 per cent. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens and Treasury secretary John Fraser have both recently warned that the nation’s "potential" growth rate could slow in coming years. Economic modelling by PwC has concluded that a trend rate of three per cent would result in Budget revenue being around $A5bn lower than expected each year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

OECD growth forecast cut to 2.6pc from 3pc

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 10-Nov-15

The OECD has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Australia in 2015 from 2.3 per cent to 2.2 per cent. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to expand by 2.6 per cent in 2016, compared with the OECD’s previous forecast of three per cent growth. The OECD’s economic outlook report suggests that Australia’s unemployment rate will remain at around 6.2 per cent in 2016. The OECD has also urged the Federal Government to pursue tax reform, including an increase in the rate and scope of the GST.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA cuts economy’s speed limit

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 23-Jul-15

The Australian economy’s trend growth rate has traditionally been regarded as being within the range of three to 3.25 per cent. However, GDP growth has been below the trend rate for 11 consecutive quarters, and it has been above the trend rate just three times during the last 27 quarters. Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that the lower economic growth of recent years may in fact represent the nation’s new trend growth rate. This would have significant implications for government revenue, unemployment and the cost of living.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Prosperity more at risk than politicians admit

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Jun-15

Australia’s economic growth may be headed for a "new normal" of 2.75 per cent or three per cent, according to former Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson. Speaking at a leadership forum in Canberra, Parkinson cast doubt on predictions that growth would rebound to its long-term average of 3.5 per cent. Grattan Institute CEO John Daley backed Parkinson, saying the Federal Government was assuming "an awful lot of things" will go right in its rosy predictions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA