ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

RBA sets jobless test for rate cut

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-19

The Reserve Bank has downgraded its 2019 growth forecast for the Australian economy from three per cent to around 2.75 per cent. The central bank indicated on 7 May that a "further improvement" in the labour market will be necessary to lift inflation to its target range. It has also flagged the prospect of an interest rate cut if the employment rate does not fall below five per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank says the central bank will almost certainly reduce the cash rate if there is even a modest rise in unemployment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

We can withstand a downturn: Frydenberg

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-May-19

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is confident that the Australian economy would be resilient in the event of a significant downturn in the global economy. Frydenberg notes amongst other things that the tax cuts in the April 2019 Budget will boost consumer spending and economic activity, and he believes that the Coalition’s policy settings are sufficient without having to pursue stimulatory measures such as bringing forward the full tax cuts package. Frydenberg also dismisses suggestions that legislating the tax cuts is the Coalition’s only real policy agenda.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, CENTRE ALLIANCE, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ADANI MINING PTY LTD

Price carbon cuts? Yes you can

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-May-19

Independent modelling has concluded that GDP growth could be reduced by a cumulative $264bn by 2030 if Labor’s carbon emissions reduction policy includes unlimited access to international carbon credits. This could rise to around $1.2bn if the use of foreign carbon credits is restricted or banned. The modelling is outlined in a new report by former bureaucrat Brian Fisher, which will be released on 2 May. Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler has previously argued that its emissions reduction policy cannot be costed.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND SCIENCES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

IMF warns on housing slide

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Apr-19

The International Monetary Fund is expected to downgrade its forecast for the Australian economy in its latest World Economic Outlook. Thomas Helbling, the IMF’s lead economist for Australia, warns that the nation’s housing market downturn has been more severe than anticipated and it has occured sooner than expected. He says the property market downturn will need to be offset via government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as increased investment in infrastructure. Helbling has also raised the possibility of interest rate cuts.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Market backs rate cuts over fiscal stimulus

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 4-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget has not had much impact on monetary policy expectations, with financial markets still pricing in two interest rate cuts by August 2020. Sally Auld of JP Morgan says the Budget’s fiscal stimulus measures are unlikely to completely offset the impact of factors such as the downturn in housing prices, slowing construction activity and weak growth in real incomes. Meanwhile, economists are more bearish about the economic growth outlook than the Treasury.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Migration cuts won’t harm economy: PM

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 21-Mar-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns that a new cap on Australia’s permanent migrant intake will have an impact on economic growth. Business Council of Australia CEO Jennifer Westacott and Australia Industry Group CEO Innes Willox are among the business leaders who have warned that cutting the migrant intake could impact on the economy. Morrison argues that the larger cut advocated by some cabinet ministers would have had an effect on economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY

Surplus powered by iron ore and coal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-19

Ernst & Young expects the federal Budget’s bottom line to be $9.2bn better off over the next two years than Treasury had forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The firm’s modelling of the Budget outcome is based on factors such as the price of iron ore and coal. Iron ore has averaged $US72 per tonne so far in 2018-19, compared with the MYEFO forecast of $U55/tonne. The price of metallurgical coal is also trading well above the MYEFO forecast so far in the current financial year.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

GDP growth to make 30 years in a row: BIS

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Mar-19

Gabriel Sterne of BIS Oxford Economics has forecast that the Australian economy will continue to expand for another two years. Sterne attributes the nation’s unprecedented period of economic growth to factors such as a low level of macro volatility, a flexible labour market and its ability to manage household debt levels. However, BIS Oxford Economics estimates that there is a 25 per cent change of a global recession in the next two years.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Miners fuel drive towards surplus

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-19

Westpac and the ANZ Bank expect the latest national accounts data to show that the Australian economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the December quarter, while National Australia Bank has forecast growth of 0.4 per cent. Meanwhile, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that pre-tax profits in the resources sector rose by $17.5bn in calendar 2018, which will in turn boost federal government revenue. However, earnings outside of the resources sector fell by 1.5 per cent during 2018.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Spending boost to spur economy

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 1-Mar-19

Non-mining investment is tipped to increase by 8.5 per cent in fiscal 2019, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is excess of the four per cent growth that Treasury had forecast in its mid-year budget review, while the Reserve Bank’s monthly credit report reveals that business lending is now at 5.2 per cent annual growth. The latest GDP figures are due to be released in the week beginning 4 March, with the Commonwealth Bank forecasting growth of between 0.25 per cent and 0.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED – ASX ABC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB