ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Export bonanza will not last long

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 2-Oct-18

Revenue from Australia’s commodity exports will increase by 11 per cent in 2018-19 to a record $252bn, according to the Department of Industry, Innovation & Science’s latest quarterly report. However, revenue is expected to decline by five per cent in 2019-20, to $238bn. Revenue from iron ore exports is tipped to total $60.4bn in 2018-19, before falling to $56bn in 2019-20, as factors such as an increase in global supply and lower steel production in China weigh on the iron ore price. Coal export revenue is also expected to fall in 2019-20, although strong growth in LNG export revenue is forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, INPEX CORPORATION, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CHEVRON CORPORATION

Trade war risk to our currency safety valve

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 21-Sep-18

Economic modelling undertaken by the Reserve Bank in March concluded that the Australian dollar could potentially rise by up to six per cent in the event of a global trade war. This in turn could cause the domestic economy to contract by up to 3.5 per cent over five years. This is one of three potential scenarios that were examined by the central bank at the time, in response to the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminium.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA warns over trade war fallout

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Original article by David Uren, Cameron Stewart, Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 19-Sep-18

President Donald Trump has vowed to escalate the trade war with China, after announcing that the US will impose a tariff of 10 per cent on $US200bn worth of Chinese goods from 24 September. This will rise to 25 per cent on 1 January. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that the central bank is concerned about the potential impact of the trade war on the Australian economy. Modelling by KPMG indicates that the Trump administration’s new round of tariff hikes would cut Australia’s GDP by about 0.3 per cent by the early 2020s.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE

Brace for serious trade consequences

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 12-Jul-18

Grant Wardell-Johnson of KPMG says the latest move by the US to increase tariffs on Chinese imports has much greater implications for the Australian economy than the first round of tariffs. The Trump administration has signalled that it intends to subject some $US200bn worth of Chinese imports to a tariff of 10 per cent; Wardell-Jones says this would mean that tariffs would apply to nearly 50 per cent of US goods imported from China. Joseph Capurso of the Commonwealth Bank says the Australian economy would be unlikely to be hard hit by an expanded US-China trade war, arguing that relatively little of what Australia exports to China subsequently makes its way to the US market.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Oil surge to drive $8.1bn LNG windfall

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 3-Jul-18

A quarterly report from the Office of the Chief Economist shows that Australia’s resources and energy exports are forecast to top $238.18bn in 2018-19, compared with $226.32bn in 2017-18. Revenue from LNG exports is expected to rise by 12 per cent to $43.5bn, while revenue from coking and thermal coal exports is tipped to be $58.1bn. Iron ore export revenue is forecast to be $57.7bn in 2018-19, while revenue expectations for 2017-18 have been scaled back from $65.3bn to $61.8bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CHEVRON CORPORATION, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Growth to accelerate despite pressures

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 6-Jun-18

The consensus of economists is that the Australian economy expanded by 0.9 per cent in the March quarter, compared with growth of just 0.4 per cent in the last quarter of 2017. The Reserve Bank and the Treasury have previously flagged growth of 0.7 per cent to 0.8 per cent for the March quarter. Meanwhile, economists expect the economy to have expanded by 2.8 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter, up from 2.4 per cent growth in the December quarter. The quarterly GDP data will be released on 6 June.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

OECD’s blue-sky outlook supports budget’s growth projections

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 5 : 31-May-18

The OECD has forecast that the Reserve Bank will be able to commence tightening monetary policy by the end of 2018 due the outlook for the Australian economy. The OECD expects economic growth of 2.9 per cent in 2018 and three per cent in 2019, while further strong growth in the employment market is forecast to have a flow-on effect for wages by the end of 2018. However, the OECD warned that the risks associated with high house prices require "continued vigilance".

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Resources bull run ‘won’t last’

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 43 : 9-May-18

The Federal Government’s Budget bottom line has been bolstered by stronger-than-expected commodity prices, although its economic forecasts for coming years are based on expectations of a fall in the price of iron ore and metallurgical coal. The Budget papers also forecast that Australia’s terms of trade will rise by 1.5 per cent in 2017-18, followed by a decline over the next four years, including a 5.25 per cent fall in 2018-19. The Budget also notes that the global price of oil will have a greater influence on Australia’s export revenue in coming years as the nation’s LNG exports increase.

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No change in rate, and RBA predicting more economic acceleration

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-May-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 1 May was widely anticipated. The cash rate has now been on hold for an unprecedented 21 months. RBA governor Philip Lowe said the central bank still expects an increase in wages and inflation to be gradual, as will a fall in the unemployment rate. However, Lowe again said the Australian economy is likely to expand by more than three per cent in 2018 and 2019, compared with just 2.4 per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Australia’s economy up there with best: IMF

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 18-Apr-18

The International Monetary Fund is upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy, forecasting that it will expand by three per cent in 2018 and 3.1 per cent in 2019. This compares with growth of just 2.3 per cent in 2017. The IMF also forecasts that Australia’s unemployment rate will fall to 5.3 per cent in 2018 and 5.2 per cent in 2019. The IMF is also bullish about the outlook for the global economy, although it has cautioned that global growth could be undermined by any trade war between the US and China.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY