ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

RBA talks up rate rise, but not just yet

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 18-Apr-18

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest board meeting show that board members expect monetary policy to be tightened rather than eased, although they have indicated that this is unlikely in the near-term given the outlook for inflation and unemployment. Meanwhile, Bill Evans of Westpac says the central bank is likely to downgrade its growth forecast for the Australian economy in 2018 from 3.25 per cent to three per cent in its next statement on monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

RBA in no hurry to follow Fed on interest rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 21-Mar-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously forecast that economic growth would average around three per cent in 2018. However, the minutes of the central bank’s latest monthly board meeting show that it expects economic growth to exceed "potential growth" in 2018. Bill Evans of Westpac notes that the Reserve Bank deems potential growth to be 2.75 per cent. Meanwhile, there seems to be little prospect of a rise in Australia’s cash rate in the near-term, while the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to increase US rates in March.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Strongest growth predicted since global financial crisis

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 14-Mar-18

The OECD has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Australia by 0.2 per cent in 2018, to three per cent, citing factors such as strong growth in jobs and an upturn in non-mining and infrastructure investment. The OECD also expects the Australian economy to expand by three per cent in 2019, which is 0.3 per cent higher than its previous forecast in December. Meanwhile, the OECD expects the global economy to expand by 3.9 per cent, while it forecasts growth in US GDP of 1.5-1.75 per cent in 2018 and 2019 due to the Trump administration’s tax reforms.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Trump’s trade war hits home

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Original article by Jacob Greber, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 5-Mar-18

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium could lead to a US-China trade war that could reduce Australia’s national income by $A5 billion within a year. Australian silicon exporter Simcoa is facing a tariff of 51 per cent, while Trade Minister Steve Ciobo says Australia may take action against the US over its proposed tariffs. He says it will depend on whether Trump decides to make exemptions for Australia, while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull describes protectionism as a "dead end".

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, SIMCOA INTERNATIONAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, GLOBE SPECIALTY METALS, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Job growth brings end to nation’s income recession

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-18

Leading economists Chris Richardson and Saul Eslake say a number of factors suggest that Australian wages will begin to rise after 18 months of stagnant growth. They cite factors such as strong growth in jobs during 2017 and a growing shortage of skilled labour. Eslake also notes that real net national disposable income per capita is now increasing at a faster pace than real gross domestic product per capita. He adds that while wages growth appears to have bottomed, the official unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent will need to fall before there is sustained growth in wages.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Trade pact to deliver GDP boost

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 25-Jan-18

Independent modelling has concluded that Australia stands to gain more from the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership than if the US had agreed to join the trade bloc. The Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated that Australia’s GDP could potentially grow by more than one per cent by 2030 as a result of the trade deal. The 11 nations participating in the TPP will officially sign off on the deal in March, and it must then be ratified by Federal Parliament.

CORPORATES
TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, PETER G PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Budget surplus to be brief: PBO

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Dec-17

Treasurer Scott Morrison has downplayed modelling by the Parliamentary Budget Office which suggests that productivity will need to increase in order to ensure that a Budget surplus is sustained. The Federal Government has forecast that it will post surpluses equivalent to 0.3 per cent of GDP from 2020-21, although this is based on expectations that productivity growth will remain at the long-term average of 1.6 per cent. However, growth in productivity has averaged just 1.35 per cent over the last decade, and the PBO’s analysis has found that the Budget will be "broadly balanced" by 2027-28 unless productivity growth improves.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

RBA governor Philip Lowe says banks needed push on interest-only lending

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 22-Nov-17

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says there is still a place for interest-only mortgage lending, but he believes the recent regulatory crackdown in this area has been a success. Speaking at the Australian Business Economists dinner on 21 November, Lowe said some banks had told him that they had welcomed the crackdown, which had prompted him to ask why they had not taken the initiative themselves and done something about it. Commenting on the prospects for the Australian economy, Lowe expects growth of above three per cent in both 2018 and 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA. COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS

Our company tax to top world

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Nov-17

The tax rate for large Australian companies has remained unchanged since 2000, when it was reduced to 30 per cent. However, the average company tax rate in advanced countries has fallen from 32 per cent to just 24 per cent over the last 17 years. The Treasury has warned that Australia’s ability to attract business investment will be adversely affected if the nation fails to respond to plans by the US to slash its company tax rate, while Australia will also face lower growth in GDP and real wages. Business Council of Australia CEO Jennifer Westacott has urged a reduction in the company tax rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

$30bn boost for PM’s tax reform plan

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Nov-17

A new report from the Treasury has concluded that the Federal Government’s proposed $A65bn corporate tax cuts proposal would result in a total tax revenue gain of about $A30bn. The research paper estimates that reducing the company tax rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent will increase the size of the domestic economy by more than one per cent over the long-term. The report also notes that the average company tax rate among OECD nations has fallen to 24 per cent, compared with 32 per cent in 2000, and it warns that Australia could face a permanent reduction in both GDP and real wages if it fails to take similar action.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT