ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

$9bn power hit for big firms

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Eli Greenblat, Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Sep-17

National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster has forecast that higher energy costs will add 0.6 per cent to the headline inflation rate for the September quarter. Companies that are major energy users estimate that their electricity and gas costs will rise by $A9bn, which in turn will affect profit margins, jobs and investment. Meanwhile, AGL Energy has advised that it has made no commitment to sell its Liddell power station or keep it operating beyond the planned closure date of 2022. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has claimed that AGL CEO Andy Vesey had indicated that the company would be open to selling the power station.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, DELTA ENERGY PTY LTD, GLENCORE PLC, AUSTRALIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, TOMAGO ALUMINIUM COMPANY PTY LTD, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX CGC, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL

Lagging on robotics risks $2.2trn boost

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 9-Aug-17

A report produced by economic consultancy AlphaBeta has concluded that around nine per cent of Australian-listed companies are investing in automation, compared with 20 per cent of US companies. The report notes that an increased commitment to automation could boost the nation’s economic output by about $A1trn by 2030, while productivity would also increase significantly. The report was produced on behalf of Google.

CORPORATES
ALPHABETA, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Housing price rises to halve, says NAB

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-Jul-17

National Australia Bank forecasts that house prices in the nation’s capital cities will rise by just five per cent in 2017, compared with growth of 11.6 per cent in 2016. NAB also expects growth in apartment prices to fall from 5.9 per cent in 2016 to three per cent. Chief economist Alan Oster says growth in residential property prices will be constrained by factors such as low growth in wages, the high level of dwelling construction and measures aimed at curbing foreign investment in the housing market.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC

House prices face turning point: HSBC

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 7-Jul-17

HSBC expects house prices in Sydney to rise by between 14 and 16 per cent in 2017, while apartment prices will rise by between 10 and 12 per cent. Growth in house and apartment prices is expected to moderate in 2018. HSBC’s forecasts for Melbourne are similar to Sydney for house prices, but it is predicting that apartment prices in Melbourne could fall by as much as three per cent in 2017 and by up to four per cent in 2018. Nationally, HSBC expects house prices to rise by between eight and 10 per cent in 2017, before rising by between three and six per cent in 2018.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

PM: our economy up with the best

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 8 : 7-Jul-17

The Australian Government expects real GDP growth of three per cent in 2018, according to documents on its economic agenda that have been submitted to the Group of 20 leaders’ summit. The document makes mention of the Government’s education package, but omits any reference to its bank levy. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said prior to leaving for Germany to attend the summit that energy policy, combatting terrorism and economic reform ae among the topics he is hoping to see discussed at the meeting.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20)

Top rate to swamp 1.2m taxpayers

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 6-Jul-17

Analysis of data from the Parliamentary Budget Office suggests that 7.3 per cent of Australians – or nearly 1.2 million people – will be paying the highest marginal tax rate in 2028, compared with just three per cent in 2015. The PBO data also shows that the Federal Government’s total income tax revenue will rise from about $A177bn in 2016 to $A378bn in 2028. The projections are based on expectations that Australia’s population will rise to 29.1 million over the next decade.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Household debt hits all-time high

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Jul-17

Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio rose to a new high of 190.4 per cent in the March 2017 quarter. Treasurer Scott Morrison has indicated that rising household debt was a key factor for the Federal Government in backing new regulatory measures aimed at curbing interest-only loans for property investors. He has warned of the economic impact if the nation’s residential property market experienced a "hard landing". He adds that the Opposition’s proposed negative gearing reforms would have heightened the risk of a hard landing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Geelong jobless disaster

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Harrison Tippett
Geelong Advertiser – Page: 9 : 29-Jun-17

Data from Roy Morgan Research shows that the underemployment rate in Geelong is 8.5 per cent, while 17 per cent of people in the Victorian regional city are either unemployed or seeking more work. Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan says underemployment is the biggest problem facing Australia, and failure to take action will see the Australian dollar slump and the economy go into recession. Meanwhile, Geelong Trades Hall secretary Colin Vernon says the increase in underemployment could result in workers being exploited.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, GEELONG TRADES HALL, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

BIS sounds warning on our debt levels

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 26-Jun-17

Data from the Reserve Bank shows that Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio is currently at a record 189 per cent. Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements notes that the Australian economy is one of several that have high levels of household debt which would be vulnerable in the event of a sharp rise in interest rates. The BIS report also notes that the cost of servicing this debt is already having an impact on economic growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS

RBA worries property could spark downturn

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 21-Jun-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s June 2017 monetary policy meeting show that board members are concerned about the potential impact of rising household debt and residential property prices on economic growth. Concerns were also raised that financial stability could be undermined by record low interest rates. Board members also stressed the need for continued co-operation between the central bank and other regulatory agencies, such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD