ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Dipping Australian dollar tipped to drop below US60c

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 21-Jul-15

Deltec International Group’s Atul Lele says further interest rate cuts and fiscal policy easing are needed in Australia due to the country’s uncertain economic outlook. He says the economic downturn in Canada is likely to be replicated in Australia, and forecasts that the Australian dollar will fall below the $US0.70 level by the end of 2015. He also warns of the potential for it to fall below $US0.60.

CORPORATES
DELTEC INTERNATIONAL GROUP, BANK OF CANADA

Housing glut by 2018, BIS report warns

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 20-Jul-15

A BIS Shrapnel report forecasts an oversupply of at least 12,000 dwellings in Australia by 2018. The firm expects just 164,000 new homes to be built in 2018, compared with an estimated 210,000 in 2014-15. However, demand for housing in New South Wales will continue to exceed supply in coming years, while there will be an oversupply of apartments in Victoria and houses in Western Australia.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Purchasing power dives on lower $A

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Jul-15

Australians may face a significant reduction in their living standards in coming years, due to factors such as a lower currency, slowing growth in wages and falling revenue from commodities. Australian households ranked fifth in the world in terms of global purchasing power in 2014. However, Deutsche Bank economist Adam Boyton expects the nation to be ranked in ninth position in 2015, and 17th within two years. The bearish forecast is based on data from the International Monetary Fund.

CORPORATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Prosperity more at risk than politicians admit

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Jun-15

Australia’s economic growth may be headed for a "new normal" of 2.75 per cent or three per cent, according to former Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson. Speaking at a leadership forum in Canberra, Parkinson cast doubt on predictions that growth would rebound to its long-term average of 3.5 per cent. Grattan Institute CEO John Daley backed Parkinson, saying the Federal Government was assuming "an awful lot of things" will go right in its rosy predictions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Feeling unsafe joins economic fears: poll

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Original article by Greg Earl
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Jun-15

The Lowy Institute for International Policy has released the findings of an opinion poll on issues such as national security and the Australian economy. Some 89 per cent of respondents identified Islamic State as the greatest security threat in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, 43 per cent expect solar power to be the nation’s main source of electricity within a decade. The proportion of respondents who are upbeat about the economic outlook has fallen from 86 per cent in 2009-10 to just 63 per cent.

CORPORATES
LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Income hit to living standards

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 4-Jun-15

New figures show that Australia’s real GDP grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9 per cent in the March 2015 quarter, and by 2.3 per cent year-on-year. However, real GDP growth has remained below the long-run average for the last 11 quarters, while average income has fallen in each of the last four quarters. Treasurer Joe Hockey says the GDP data highlights the continued strength of the domestic economy, but economist Dr Andrew Charlton is concerned about the outlook for the economy and the nation’s living standards.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ALPHABETA, THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Hockey rejects recession fears

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 11-May-15

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook had forecast GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in 2014-15. This is expected to be scaled back in the May 2015 Budget, but Treasurer Joe Hockey has downplayed suggestions by Macroeconomics’ Stephen Anthony that there is the potential for a recession in 2016. Meanwhile, Hockey is confident that the Government can keep the unemployment rate at no more than 6.5 per cent, compared with 6.2 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MACROECONOMICS.COM.AU PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Digital economy chips in $79b a year

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Original article by Paul Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Mar-15

A Deloitte Access Economics report estimates that the digital economy now accounts for 5.1 per cent of Australia’s GDP, and this is forecast to reach 7.3 per cent by 2020. The value of the digital economy is expected to rise from $A79bn at present to $A139bn in five years’ time. The report was produced on behalf of Google, whose Australian MD Maile Carnegie says action is needed to increase the supply of skilled workers in the information and communications technology sector

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Budget deficits for 40 years

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 6-Mar-15

The Australian Government’s Intergenerational Report forecasts that the nation’s population will rise from 23.9 million to 39.7 million over the next four decades. It also forecasts that Australians will live longer, with more than 40,000 people over the age of 100 by 2055, while the workforce participation rate of people aged 65+ will rise and there will be fewer people under the age of 65 in the workforce. Treasurer Joe Hockey has used the release of the report to warn that Australia faces decades of Budget deficits unless policy reforms are implemented

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MIGRATION COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

Education may stop backslide

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 11-Feb-15

Australia currently boasts the world’s 19-largest economy, but a PwC report says the nation risks falling to 29th place by 2050. PwC Australia economist Jeremy Thorpe stresses the need for greater emphasis on education and training in order to maintain Australia’s status as one of the world’s 20 largest economies. He says the science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines should be a particular focus

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20), GROUP OF THIRTY (G-30), GROUP OF SEVEN (G-7), NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA