ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Iron ore slump hits economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber, Angela Macdonald-Smith, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Sep-14

The iron ore price has fallen to $US83.60 per tonne, and has now shed 38 per cent so far in 2014. The downturn has forced Northern Territory-focused Western Desert Resources into administration. Meanwhile, former federal government minister Peter Reith has warned that Australia will eventually face another recession and reforms should be implemented now in order to reduce the impact of any economic downturn

CORPORATES
WESTERN DESERT RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX WDR, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ

High cost of ‘green tape’ to economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Annabel Hepworth
The Australian – Page: 19 : 18-Aug-14

A new study has been commissioned from BAEconomics by the Minerals Council of Australia. The special interest group will argue that the research shows so-called green tape will hold up developments that could otherwise add some 69,000 jobs to the economy by 2015, unless state and federal governments act to reduce the bureaucratic burden. The Department of Employment recently also forecast that 16,000-plus workers would be made redundant in the half-decade to 2018 in the areas of exploration as well as metal ore and coal mining, after 106,700 positions had been created in the previous five years

CORPORATES
MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, BAECONOMICS PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, BG GROUP PLC, QUEENSLAND GAS COMPANY LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Energy report urges job reform

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amos Aikman
The Australian – Page: 18 : 18-Aug-14

A new study, "Heading North: The Importance of Labour Mobility in Developing Northern Australia", has been commissioned by the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association special interest group. It will argue before the federal parliament’s Joint Select Committee on Northern Australia on 18 August 2014 that state and federal governments must do more to support flexible staffing solutions. These include "fly in, fly out" rosters, more skilled immigration and the use of "457" visas. Such measures could unlock a potential $A180bn in capital investments

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. JOINT SELECT COMMITTEE ON NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

Hockey hits business for ‘weak’ help

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Aug-14

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Saul Eslake expects the 2017-18 Budget deficit to be $A18bn if the Senate continues to oppose key measures, while he expects Australia’s net debt to rise to 16.5 per cent of GDP. Meanwhile, Treasurer Joe Hockey has defended the May 2014 Budget, arguing that Australians’ future standard of living will be adversely affected unless action on budget reform is taken now

CORPORATES
BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THE AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT LIMITED, NEW ZEALAND. TREASURY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Job ads, buoyant retail raise pressure on rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 19 : 5-Aug-14

There is no clear consensus among economists on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will move to lift or cut the official cash interest rate late in 2014. No change is expected at the board meeting on 5 August, but a number of economic indicators have created uncertainty about the longer-term picture. Retailing sector sales had been forecast to grow a subdued 0.3% during June, but instead rose 0.6% to $A23.2bn. It appears consumer confidence dented by the harsh federal Budget in May is starting to recover. Help-wanted advertising is also up 4% in annualised terms

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Labour shortage to hit economy by 2030

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 4-Aug-14

The Boston Consulting Group has issued its new "Global Workforce: $10 trillion at risk" report, which looks at 25 nations. It predicts that in Australia there will be an under-supply of some 2.3 million workers by 2030, based on an average labour growth rate of just 1.03% per annum until 2020. This will combine with continuing GDP growth of around 3% per year due to Australia’s wealth of natural resources. Boosts are needed to labour productivity, workforce participation, and investment in technology and innovation

CORPORATES
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP INCORPORATED

Iron ore, coal tipped for gradual recovery

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 16 : 4-Aug-14

Mark Pervan, global head of commodity strategy at ANZ Banking, says the recent rapid fall in the prices of coal and iron ore may have reached its nadir. However he also warns that the turnaround may occur at a slower pace than that seen during previous cycles. Similar sentiments have been voiced by Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of global steel producer ArcelorMittal. Pervan predicts the coal price per tonne to rise to between $US115 and $US120 by late 2014, and that of iron ore to almost $US100

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ARCELOR MITTAL SA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

M&A ‘explosion’ may not rattle Australia

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 22-Jul-14

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham is expecting a "veritable explosion" in mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia. He says that three factors will lead to a record number of mergers and acquisitions deals, namely cheap capital, the economic recovery and high profit margins. JPMorgan is not convinced. The firm believes that foreign investors will be deterred by the high value of the Australian dollar

CORPORATES
GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO AND COMPANY LLC, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED, DAVID JONES LIMITED – ASX DJS, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS AND COMPANY, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, TIME WARNER INCORPORATED, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, 21ST CENTURY FOX INCORPORATED

Treasury says lower $A to avoid income crunch

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1-Feb : 22-Jul-14

The Melbourne Economic Forum has warned of the need for a reduction in real wages and higher productivity to avert a decline in Australians’ standard of living. However, Professor Ian McDonald of Melbourne University believes that the economic modelling has too much emphasis on productivity. Meanwhile, federal Treasury economist David Gruen told the forum that the Australian dollar is likely to fall in coming years, which will assist the transition from the mining boom

CORPORATES
MELBOURNE ECONOMIC FORUM, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, VICTORIA UNIVERSITY. CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Living standards set to fall

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber, Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 21-Jul-14

The Melbourne Economic Forum has warned of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate and a reduced standard of living if Australia fails to take action to increase productivity. Economic modelling by the forum suggests that the jobless rate will rise to 6.6 per cent late in 2015 without such reform. Victoria University’s Professor James Giesecke says that productivity will need to grow by 0.7 per cent each year simply to preserve the current standard of living

CORPORATES
MELBOURNE ECONOMIC FORUM, VICTORIA UNIVERSITY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA