ECONOMIC FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Foreign students to bring in $30b

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Original article by Alan Olsen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 6-Oct-14

Australia’s education export industry was worth $A16.4bn in 2010, compared with just $A7.9bn in 2004. This fell to $A14.6bn in fiscal 2013, but there has since been a rebound in international student enrolments as the Australian dollar weakened. It is estimated that if the number of foreign students continues to grow by about five per cent annually in coming years, the nation’s education export market could be worth $A30.8bn by 2020

CORPORATES
AUSTRADE, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Resource exports to dip before a pick-up

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 20 : 25-Sep-14

Australia’s Bureau of Resources & Energy Economics forecasts 43 per cent growth in the nation’s earnings from resources exports in the next four years. LNG exports are expected to be a key driver of earnings growth over this period, while the agency forecasts that coal and iron ore prices will rebound in the next several years. Earnings from resources exports are forecast to fall by 1.4 per cent in 2014 before rising by 13.4 per cent in 2015

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Drop in dollar helps, but don’t bet on its slide

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 18 : 16-Sep-14

Economists do not expect the Australian dollar to fall much further. The currency has remained high since the global financial crisis. However, it dropped below $US0.90 in mid-September 2014. The fall in the price of iron ore will reduce Federal Government revenues, but the lower dollar will lift the US dollar earnings of Australian companies. Robert Rennie, of Westpac Banking, believes that the currency is close to "fair value" of about $US0.88

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Iron ore slump hits economy

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Angela Macdonald-Smith, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Sep-14

The iron ore price has fallen to $US83.60 per tonne, and has now shed 38 per cent so far in 2014. The downturn has forced Northern Territory-focused Western Desert Resources into administration. Meanwhile, former federal government minister Peter Reith has warned that Australia will eventually face another recession and reforms should be implemented now in order to reduce the impact of any economic downturn

CORPORATES
WESTERN DESERT RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX WDR, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ

High cost of ‘green tape’ to economy

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Original article by Annabel Hepworth
The Australian – Page: 19 : 18-Aug-14

A new study has been commissioned from BAEconomics by the Minerals Council of Australia. The special interest group will argue that the research shows so-called green tape will hold up developments that could otherwise add some 69,000 jobs to the economy by 2015, unless state and federal governments act to reduce the bureaucratic burden. The Department of Employment recently also forecast that 16,000-plus workers would be made redundant in the half-decade to 2018 in the areas of exploration as well as metal ore and coal mining, after 106,700 positions had been created in the previous five years

CORPORATES
MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, BAECONOMICS PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, BG GROUP PLC, QUEENSLAND GAS COMPANY LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Energy report urges job reform

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Original article by Amos Aikman
The Australian – Page: 18 : 18-Aug-14

A new study, "Heading North: The Importance of Labour Mobility in Developing Northern Australia", has been commissioned by the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association special interest group. It will argue before the federal parliament’s Joint Select Committee on Northern Australia on 18 August 2014 that state and federal governments must do more to support flexible staffing solutions. These include "fly in, fly out" rosters, more skilled immigration and the use of "457" visas. Such measures could unlock a potential $A180bn in capital investments

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. JOINT SELECT COMMITTEE ON NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

Hockey hits business for ‘weak’ help

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Aug-14

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Saul Eslake expects the 2017-18 Budget deficit to be $A18bn if the Senate continues to oppose key measures, while he expects Australia’s net debt to rise to 16.5 per cent of GDP. Meanwhile, Treasurer Joe Hockey has defended the May 2014 Budget, arguing that Australians’ future standard of living will be adversely affected unless action on budget reform is taken now

CORPORATES
BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THE AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT LIMITED, NEW ZEALAND. TREASURY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Job ads, buoyant retail raise pressure on rates

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 19 : 5-Aug-14

There is no clear consensus among economists on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will move to lift or cut the official cash interest rate late in 2014. No change is expected at the board meeting on 5 August, but a number of economic indicators have created uncertainty about the longer-term picture. Retailing sector sales had been forecast to grow a subdued 0.3% during June, but instead rose 0.6% to $A23.2bn. It appears consumer confidence dented by the harsh federal Budget in May is starting to recover. Help-wanted advertising is also up 4% in annualised terms

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Labour shortage to hit economy by 2030

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 4-Aug-14

The Boston Consulting Group has issued its new "Global Workforce: $10 trillion at risk" report, which looks at 25 nations. It predicts that in Australia there will be an under-supply of some 2.3 million workers by 2030, based on an average labour growth rate of just 1.03% per annum until 2020. This will combine with continuing GDP growth of around 3% per year due to Australia’s wealth of natural resources. Boosts are needed to labour productivity, workforce participation, and investment in technology and innovation

CORPORATES
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP INCORPORATED

Iron ore, coal tipped for gradual recovery

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 16 : 4-Aug-14

Mark Pervan, global head of commodity strategy at ANZ Banking, says the recent rapid fall in the prices of coal and iron ore may have reached its nadir. However he also warns that the turnaround may occur at a slower pace than that seen during previous cycles. Similar sentiments have been voiced by Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of global steel producer ArcelorMittal. Pervan predicts the coal price per tonne to rise to between $US115 and $US120 by late 2014, and that of iron ore to almost $US100

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ARCELOR MITTAL SA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD