ECONOMIC FORECASTING – CHINA

Australia most exposed to virus: Trump adviser

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 2-Mar-20

Kevin Hassett, the former chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, has forecast that the Chinese economy will contract by 10 per cent in the March 2020 quarter. He adds that China’s economic growth will return to normal if the coronavirus outbreak is quickly contained, but he warns that Australia faces the prospect of a recession if the outbreak is not brought under control by the start of the northern hemisphere’s summer. The US has introduced new travel restrictions on people who have recently visited Iran, while the nation has reported its first confirmed death from the virus.

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Aviva tips weaker dollar, eyes global recession

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 2-Sep-19

Aviva Investors’ chief economist Michael Grady is bearish about the Australian dollar, saying that it could fall to the low $US0.60s level by the end of 2019. He stresses that the potential slump in the currency’s value is not solely due to the outlook for the Chinese economy, noting amongst other things that the link between the dollar and the terms of trade has broken down. Grady adds that the trade war with the US could reduce China’s economic growth by a further 1-1.25 per cent, while he says there is an even chance of a global recession before the end of 2019.

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AVIVA INVESTORS

China ratings cut hits markets

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Original article by Rowan Callick, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 25-May-17

The Australian dollar fell sharply on 24 May 2017 in response to Moody’s Investors Service’s decision to downgrade China’s debt rating from "Aa3" to "A1". The Shanghai and Shenzhen sharemarkets also lost ground during intra-day trading. Moody’s has forecast that China’s economic growth potential will fall to around five per cent in the next five years, while it expects debt across the Chinese economy to continue to rise.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STOCKBROKERS AND FINANCIAL ADVISERS ASSOCIATION LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, COMMUNIST PARTY (CHINA)

Resource stocks in vogue again on back of China hopes

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 19-Sep-16

The uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy weighed on both commodity prices and resources stocks earlier in 2016. However, Australia’s resources sector is back in favour with investors, amid growing optimism about the Chinese economy. Whitehaven Coal has gained 250 per cent in the year to date, while pure-play iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group has risen by 164 per cent.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SYR, OROCOBRE LIMITED – ASX ORE, GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32

Australia at risk from hard landing in China

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 18-Feb-16

The Chinese economy expanded by just 6.9 per cent in 2015, and Oxford Economics forecasts a gradual slowing of economic growth over the next five years. However, Sian Fenner of Oxford Economics warns that Australia could face a recession in 2016 if the Chinese economy experiences a "hard landing". Fenner adds that in the event of a recession the Reserve Bank could reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent, which would limit the extent of the economic downturn.

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OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AVIVA PLC, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

China fears greatly exaggerated, says Aviva

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 16-Feb-16

The Chinese sharemarket was resilient on 15 February 2016, despite concern that it would fall sharply when trading resumed after the week-long holiday for the Lunar New Year. Meanwhile, Aviva Investors CEO Euan Munro has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy, noting that it is still growing despite its shift from a focus on commodities. However, he says the yuan could potentially fall by 15-20 per cent against the US dollar in the next several years.

CORPORATES
AVIVA INVESTORS, AVIVA PLC, STANDARD LIFE INVESTMENTS LIMITED, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX

BHP’s Mackenzie bullish on China

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 18-Sep-15

The iron ore price fell by 3.2 per cent to $US62 per tonne on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange on 17 September 2015. BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie concedes that rising iron ore output could put further downward pressure on the price of the steel input. However, Mackenzie says he is much more upbeat about the economic outlook for China – the key market for Australian commodities – than he was earlier in 2015.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UNITED STATES CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, WORLD BANK, APPLE INCORPORATED, DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Softer China blows out the budget deficit

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Dec-14

The Australian Government’s mid-year Budget update will scale back its forecast for 2014-15 revenue to $A379bn, compared with expectation of $A386bn in the May 2014 Budget. Treasurer Joe Hockey has attributed the revenue shortfall primarily to the decline in commodity prices. The update also forecasts that Australia’s terms of trade will fall by 13.5 per cent, compared with a previous forecast of a 6.75 per cent decline. The Government has also downgraded its forecast for China’s economic growth

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY