Second wave would be $25bn tsunami

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 11-Jun-20

The OECD’s latest economic outlook report forecasts that the Australian economy will contract by five per cent in 2020, compared with an average decline of 7.5 per cent among member nations. The OECD also expects the domestic economy to rebound by 4.1 per cent in 2021, in the absence of a second wave of the coronavirus. A fresh outbreak would reduce GDP growth in 2021 to just one per cent, according to the OECD. The Paris-based organisation expects the global economy to contract by 6% in 2020, and 7.6% if there is a second wave.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Rio boss warns of volatility, nationalism

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 14-May-20

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques has warned that global commodity markets will continue to experience volatility in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, while global GDP growth will be hit. Jacques says is too soon to know whether there will be a V-shaped economic recovery. He also says the movement of people and goods will be restricted in the wake of the pandemic, while there could be a fundamental shift in global wealth distribution. Jacques noted that Rio Tinto’s mining operations will be affected by an increase in geopolitical tensions in the post-pandemic environment.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

V-shaped recovery unlikely: BHP

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 : 13-May-20

BHP CEO Mike Henry expects global demand for copper and steel to fall sharply in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, while he warns that demand for oil may not return to pre-virus levels for at least 18 months. Henry has told a Bank of America conference that a V-shaped economic recovery is now unlikely, except in China, and he has signalled that BHP will further reduce exploration capital expenditure when its 2019-20 full-year results are released.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Hopes of V-shaped recovery likely to be dashed

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 24-Apr-20

The global sharemarket has recovered about 50 per cent of the losses incurred in the sell-off during February and March. However, a further V-shaped recovery for equities is likely to be dependent on the global economy being restarted quickly. A V-shaped economic recovery is also unlikely, according to economists. Josh Williamson of Citigroup expects Australia’s economic growth to fall by 5.8 per cent in 2019-20, before rebounding by 6.1 per cent in 2020-21. However, he does not expect the economy to return to pre-virus growth levels until late 2021.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Blow to trade far larger than Trump

Original article by Tony Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 26-Feb-20

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the dangers of being too dependent on China for imported goods, and companies will need to diversify their supply chains. He also expects the coronavirus to have a greater impact on international trade than the tariff war that was initiated by President Donald Trump. Fink adds that rather than relying on the monetary policy measures of central banks, governments will need to pursue fiscal stimulus if the coronavirus affects global economic growth.

CORPORATES
BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Coronavirus could cost global economy $1.1tn in lost income

Original article by Phillip Inman
The Guardian – Page: Online : 20-Feb-20

The death toll from the coronavirus in mainland China has risen to 2,004, and more than 74,000 people across the nation have been infected with the respiratory illness. Meanwhile, two people have died in Iran after testing positive for the coronavirus, while Hong Kong has reported its second death from the illness. Oxford Economics has estimated that the coronavirus would reduce global economic growth by 1.3 per cent in 2020 if it becomes a pandemic; this could reduce global output by more than $1trn. However, the firm expects the impact of the virus to largely be limited to China.

CORPORATES
OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED

IMF vows to do whatever it takes

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 21-Oct-19

The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2020, after recently scaling back its 2019 growth forecast to three per cent. The IMF’s International Monetary & Financial Committee concluded its annual meeting in Washington on 20 October; it released a communique in which it committed to using all appropriate policy tools to bolster global growth. The communique also acknowledged the need to resolve trade tensions.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND, WORLD BANK, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Stocks lashed by recession fears

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 4-Oct-19

Factors such as growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and a ruling from the WTO that has cleared the US to impose tariffs on European Union imports have weighed on investors worldwide. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 2.9 per cent so far in October, while the S&P 500 in the US has fallen by three per cent. Aaryn Nania of Lucerne Investment Partners warns that investors should expect further market volatility, although Robert Buckland of Citigroup says it is too soon to predict a recession in the US and the end of the bull market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, LUCERNE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

US-China war may cost $652bn

Original article by James Dean
The Australian – Page: 26 : 7-Jun-19

International Monetary Fund MD Christine Lagarde says a worsening of the trade dispute between the US and China will cause "self-inflicted wounds". The IMF has estimated that the global economy will take a $US455 billion ($652 billion) hit in 2020 if the trade war escalates further. Lagarde notes that protectionist measures make traded consumer goods more expensive and cause disproportionate harm to low-income households.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Danger of global slide, IMF warns

Original article by David Uren, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 22-Jan-19

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 from 3.7 per cent to 3.5 per cent. Chief economist Gita Gop­inath says global economic growth is slowing at a faster pace than had been expected, warning that there is a heightened risk of a more significant downgrade in the IMF’s growth forecasts. The downgrade has coincided with the release of data showing that economic growth in China fell from 6.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent in 2018, its lowest level in almost three decades.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS