ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 5.2% in mid-January – up from 4.8% for the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5.2% for the week of 13-19 January 2025. This figure is above the average for last year of 4.9%, and up 0.4% points from the month of December. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2024 shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – up 0.1% points from previous three months of September to November, but below the average for last year of 4.9%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% since the start of 2024 and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Living standards stagnant until 2030: Deloitte

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jan-25

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that state and federal government spending will reach a record 28 per cent of real GDP by the end of 2025. This compares with an average of 22 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm has warned that despite rising government expenditure, Australians’ living standards will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. Meanwhile, Deloitte partner Stephen Smith expects that CPI data to be released today will show that inflation is moving sustainably towards the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. However, he says factors such as a resilient labour market, elevated government spending and a falling Australian dollar are complicating the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.3pts to 85.8 as buying intentions drop for a second straight week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 85.8 in the week to 19 January. However, Consumer Confidence is now 1.4 points above the same week a year ago (84.4), and 2.9 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, whilst remaining unchanged in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 3ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down by 1pt in December after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-25

In December 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 105.9 (down 1pt from November 2024) after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Business Confidence is now 5.3pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 14.8pts from December 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has also now had a positive rating above 100 for three months in a row – for the first time since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59.7% (up 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while only 37.6% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 6.9ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 21.1% (down 1.3ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,533 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Thousands shut up shop as company collapses hit record

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 21-Jan-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that 7,483 companies were declared insolvent in the six months to December 2024. This is 47.1 per cent higher than the same period in 2023. Jarvis Archer from Business Reset says insolvencies are 84 per cent higher than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic; he adds that the number of companies going into administration could potentially top 16,000 in the year to June 2025. The previous annual record of 11,053 insolvencies was set in 2023-24. The ASIC data shows that insolvency appointments in the construction sector rose by 29.6 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2024-25, while insolvencies in the hospitality sector have increased by 70.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BUSINESS RESET PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 87.1 in mid-January as buying sentiment softens

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 87.1 in mid-January, sustaining most of the traditional ‘New Year’s bump’. Consumer Confidence is now 2.7 points above the same week a year ago (84.4), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows small increases in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, a decline in Victoria and unchanged in Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In December Australian unemployment increased to 9.7% as overall employment dropped by 150,000

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-25

In December 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 180,000 to 1,542,000 (up 1.1% to 9.7% of the workforce), with many fewer people in part-time employment following the Black Friday sales period in November. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.68 million Australians (10.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 132,000 from November to a new record high). In total, 3.22 million Australians (20.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December; this is the highest combined figure since August 2020. Meanwhile, Australian employment fell by 154,000 to 14,276,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 210,000 to 4,953,000 following the Black Friday sales period), while full-time employment increased by 56,000 to 9,323,000. The total workforce in December was 15,818,000 (up 26,000 from November, and up 866,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for November, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Rate cut won’t stop insolvency trend overnight

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 8-Jan-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that nearly 26,000 businesses have become insolvent since the May 2022 federal election, including a record 12,405 in the first 11 months of 2024. McGrathNicol’s executive chairman Jason Preston says corporate Australia is being affected by factors such as structural challenges in many sectors, high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. Preston expects businesses to continue to collapse in 2025, and notes that the eventual interest rate cuts will take some time to have a positive effect on the business sector and consumer sentiment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, McGRATH NICOL AND PARTNERS SERVICES PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.6pts to 87.5, highest start to New Year for three years since 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.6pts to 87.5 in in early January, with the traditional ‘New Year’s bump’. Consumer Confidence is now 2.7 points above the same week a year ago (84.8), and 4.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but a decline in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 28% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record insolvencies tarnish Chalmers’ spin

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission undermines the federal government’s economic credentials. The figures show that 12,405 businesses were declared insolvent in the first 11 months of 2024. This includes a record 1,442 business failures in November, which is 62 per cent higher year-on-year. Nearly 26,000 businesses have collapsed since Labor won the May 2022 federal election; Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley notes that this is approximately the same as the number of additional public servants Labor has hired since it took office. Separate data shows that the number of welfare recipients has risen by about 83,000 year-on-year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA