ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Mortgage payments steady as rates rise

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 : 11-Jan-17

Data from Deutsche Bank shows that Australians’ home loan repayments now comprise around 17 per cent of their income, which is consistent with the average over the last three decades. The figures also show that mortgage payment account for 63.6 per cent of Sydney borrowers’ weekly income, compared with 45.3 per cent in Melbourne and just 27.3 per cent in Perth. Meanwhile, Paul Bloxham of HSBC says the residential construction boom is nearing its peak.

CORPORATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, ING DIRECT, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumps to 120.1 (up 6.7pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jan-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumped a sharp 5.9% to 120.1 in the week ended 8 January 2017, more than reversing the decline in the last survey conducted in mid-December (post the surprisingly weak GDP reading). The headline index is now at its highest level in 15 weeks. The details were broadly upbeat. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months bounced a solid 11.2%, almost entirely reversing last month’s decline. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next five years rose 2.2%. Meanwhile, households’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago rose 3.0% and now sits at the highest level since the end of September 2016, when the index reached a post-GFC high. Households’ views towards their future finances also improved, up 3.5% last week, and are in a strong upward trend.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing approvals post small rise but trend points downwards

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 10-Jan-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was seven per cent growth in dwelling approvals in November 2016, in seasonally-adjusted terms. House approvals were consistent with the data for October, although there was 17.3 per cent growth in approvals for units. Meanwhile, in trend terms dwelling approvals declined in the six months to November.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Business Confidence down in December to 114.1 (down 2.2%) after negative Australian GDP figures released

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.2% to 114.1 in December 2016. The fall in Business Confidence occurred even as the Australian All Ordinaries rose during December – mirroring strong rises in US indices following the victory of Donald Trump in the Presidential Election. The All Ordinaries ended 2016 at 5,719.1 (up 216.7pts (+3.9%) from November 30). This month’s fall in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now below the 6-year average (116.6) but still above the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for 2016 of 113.4. Businesses are less confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months down 3.3ppts to 27pts in December, and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 18.2pts (down 2.3ppts).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research comments on the fall in Business Confidence in December

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Business Confidence fell slightly in December after three straight months of increases – down 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.1. The fall in Business Confidence came after Donald Trump secured an unexpected victory in the US Presidential Election in November while in early December the ABS announced Australia’s GDP had decreased 0.5% in the September quarter – the first contraction in Australian GDP for over five years. Both Australia and the US face a continuing problem of high real unemployment and under-employment: In the US (over 20% according to President-elect Trump); and in Australia the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates show Australian real unemployment of 1.199 million (9.2%) and under-employment of 1.1 million (8.4%). These figures show that the Reserve Bank of Australia should still be cutting Australian interest rates in 2017 (now at 1.50%) rather than thinking about raising them.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Cash upbeat as job figures defy gloom

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Dec-16

Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from 5.6 per cent in October 2016 to 5.7 per cent in November. It has increased by 0.7 per cent in the last 12 months, although the Budget had forecast a 1.75 per cent increase. The figures show that some 39,300 full-time jobs were created in November, but the number of full-time positions fell by more than 45,000 overall in the first 11 months of the year. The youth unemployment rate has risen from 12.5 per cent to 14.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Gary Morgan comment on Roy Morgan real unemployment unchanged at 9.2% in November

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

Australia’s continuing high level of real unemployment and under-employment – now above 2 million for a 14th straight month – has persistently indicated the weakness in the broader Australian economy, which has now been confirmed by Australia’s first quarter of negative GDP growth since the March quarter 2011. The ABS announced last week that Australian GDP shrunk 0.5% in the September quarter 2016. The election of Donald Trump in the US last month proves that politicians who take the concerns of their people seriously will find electoral success. Trump consistently asserted during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was far higher than the figures quoted by the official Bureau of Labor Statistics – over 20%, and perhaps even over 30%. The Turnbull Government must learn the lesson provided by Trump’s election without delay.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian real unemployment steady at 9.2% (1.199m Australians); Under-employment down 1.5% to 8.4% (1.1m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

In November 2016 a total of 2.299 million Australians, 17.6% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,199,000) or under-employed (1,100,000). This is down 237,000 (down 2%) from November 2015. Unemployment is comparable to a year ago with 1.199 million Australians now unemployed (up 13,000 in a year but steady at 9.2% due to overall growth in the workforce). These real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for October 2016 (5.6%). In November, the Australian workforce increased to 13,046,000 (up 92,000 since November 2015), and total employment increased to 11,847,000 (up 79,000). Full-time employment is now 7,950,000 – up 374,000 from a year ago (7,576,000 in November 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has decreased by 295,000 to 3,897,000 over the past year (an average of just under 25,000 per month). The lower part-time employment contributed to the fall in under-employment; now 8.4% of Australians 1,100,000 (down 250,000 since November 2015) are under-employed (down 2%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges to 113.4 (down 5.2pts) after shockingly weak GDP data

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 4.4% to 113.4 in the week ended 11 December 2016. The headline index is now at its lowest level since May. The details were negative with views on "economic conditions over the next 12 months" and "now is a good time to buy a household item" showing the sharpest declines. Households’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago edged down 0.7%, while households’ views towards their future finances slipped 2.1%. Both sub-indices remain well above their long run averages. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months plummeted 11.7%, bringing the index to its lowest level since February. Households’ views of the economic outlook in the next five years fell a more modest 1.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Crisis looms unless leaders grasp economic reforms

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Original article by David Crowe
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Dec-16

The Council of Australian Governments meeting on 9 December 2016 coincides with the release of data showing that GDP growth fell by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter. Australian Institute of Company Directors chair Elizabeth Proust and former Business Council of Australia president Tony Shepherd have urged federal and state leaders to pursue measures aimed at boosting economic growth and investment. Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett adds that the COAG meeting should focus on economic reform.

CORPORATES
COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENTS, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, NESTLE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP