ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rebounds – up 3.2pts to 118.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose a solid 2.8% to 118.6 in the week ended 3 December 2016. The headline index is now at its highest level in 10 weeks. The details were also positive. The strength in the headline index was broadly based, with the biggest improvement coming from a 4.4% jump in households’ view of future finances. Households’ views of their finances compared to a year ago also improved, but by a much more modest 0.2%. Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months rose a strong 2.9%, while households’ view of the economic outlook in the next five years bounced a solid 2.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan Research, comment on improving Consumer Confidence – up 3.2pts to 118.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has improved strongly this week driven by rising confidence about personal financial situations and that now is a good time to buy major household items. The improvement in Consumer Confidence is matched by the increase in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence – now at 116.7 – its highest since the Federal Election. Both measures have improved despite the election victory of Donald Trump in the US, which many suggested would cause problems for the global economy. Of course, Trump is not yet in office, so will President Trump stand by his campaign promises or move away from them as President? The major test for Trump is whether he can convince the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates whilst real unemployment and under-employment in America (well over 20%) is clearly higher than the "unbelievable" figures released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showing US unemployment of only 4.6% in November. In addition, Trump’s stance on US free-trade "deals" will be particularly important to the Australian economy which has benefited from free-trade agreements with important trading partners like China, Japan and South Korea. If Trump increases trade barriers with important Australian trading partners this will obviously impact on Australian Business Confidence which so far has been steady since the Trump victory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Business Confidence up slightly in November to 116.7 (up 0.4%); highest since Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 0.4% to 116.7 in November 2016. The small rise in Business Confidence occurred as the Australian All Ordinaries ended November at 5,502.4 (up 100.0pts from October 31). This month’s small rise in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now just above the 6-year average (116.6) and above the current ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating of 115.4. Businesses are increasingly confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months up 10.3ppts to 30.3pts in November and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 20.5pts (up 2.3ppts).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

The ‘Two-Speed’ economy returns with soaring unemployment and under-employment in Australia’s four smaller States (QLD, WA, SA & Tas)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

Special analysis of Roy Morgan Research real employment estimates in each State over the three months to October 2016 shows that unemployment and under-employment are a growing problem in Australia’s four smallest States of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania – all four of which now have total unemployment and under-employment above the national average. In contrast, Australia’s two largest States have clearly the healthiest labour markets and New South Wales – with total unemployment and under-employment of 15.2% (down 2.1% from a year ago) is the clear standout. In Victoria 16.0% of the workforce is now unemployed or under-employed – up 1.4% from a year ago but still well below Australia’s national average of 17.6% (up 1.0%). The end of the mining boom has clearly had a big impact on Western Australia – now at 19.6% (up 3.7%) unemployment and under-employment and Queensland 20.3% (up 3.3%), while Australia’s smallest State of Tasmania continues to have a substantial problem with total unemployment and under-employment of 22.5% (up 1.8%). The closure of several large manufacturing plants in South Australia – including the ceasing of Holden Cruze production at its Elizabeth plant in early October has clearly had an impact, and South Australia now has the highest unemployment and under-employment in the nation at 23% (up 5% in a year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, GM HOLDEN LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on Australia’s worrying State-based unemployment picture

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

One clear political impact of the worsening employment situation is the rise of regional parties around Australia. In particular we have the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia (three Senators and one Lower House MP), the return of One Nation – primarily in Queensland, but also strong in Western Australia and regional New South Wales (four Senators around Australia), the popularity of Senator Jacqui Lambie and the Jacqui Lambie Network in Tasmania and even the election of Senator Derryn Hinch in Victoria. To overcome the popularity of regional parties Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the L-NP Government must concentrate more on the regional problems of high and rising unemployment and under-employment with policies prioritising job creation and a growing economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION PARTY, JACQUI LAMBIE NETWORK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence stabilises at 115.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Nov-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged 0.1% lower to 115.4 in the week ended 28 November 2016, with the decline driven by a deterioration in households’ view of their finances. Providing some offset was an improvement in households’ views of the economic outlook. Households’ views of their finances compared to a year ago fell 1.5%, largely reversing the gain over the previous week. Meanwhile, households’ view of their future finances dropped 0.9%. In contrast, after a sharp drop the previous week, households’ views on economic conditions over the next 12 months edged 0.7% higher, while households’ view on the economic outlook in the next five years bounced a solid 3.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Foreign banks fill lending void

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 23 : 30-Nov-16

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that the average mortgage balance has risen from $A244,000 in 2015 to $A255,000. However, the value of new home loans grew by only 0.1 per cent year-on-year in the September 2016 quarter. A recent move by Australia’s major banks to reduce their lending to residential developers has also seen the value of offshore banks’ lending to local developers rise from $A1.49bn to $A2.65bn in the last year. Meanwhile, data from the Housing Industry Association shows that sales of new detached homes and apartments fell by 8.2 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in October.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating falls 2.3% to 115.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Nov-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 115.5 in the week ended 20 November 2016, after a 0.3% rise the previous week. The fall was driven primarily by a decline in households’ views on the economic outlook. Their views on financial conditions, on the other hand, have improved. Households’ views on economic conditions over the next 12 months and five years fell a sharp 5.6% and 7.5% respectively, partially reversing the gain over the past three weeks.. Households’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago rose 2.1% this week after a 0.8% fall the previous week. Meanwhile, households’ views towards their future finances remained unchanged after a 1.2% fall last week. Both sub-indices remain well above their long run averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

More than a million workers want to work longer hours

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Original article by Josh Gordon
The Age – Page: 7 : 18-Nov-16

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a high level of underemployment. Among those with a job, 8.7 per cent of employees would like to work longer hours. Sue Richardson, from the National Institute of Labor Studies at Flinders University, says underemployment usually affects those with low levels of education because of the gradual disappearance of jobs in manufacturing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, FLINDERS UNIVERSITY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Spike in full-time work puts jobs market doom in shade

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Nov-16

Official data shows that Australia gained a net 98,000 jobs in October 2016. The creation of 41,500 full-time jobs has offset a 31,700 fall in part-time positions during the month. The nation’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 per cent, while there was an 0.9 per cent increase in the number of hours worked. The data also shows that 133,000 part-time jobs have been created so far in 2016, while the economy has shed 89,000 full-time jobs.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD