ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

National accounts, US data to steer market sentiment

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 30-May-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain 23 points when trading resumes on 30 May 2016, after the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed above 5,400 in the previous trading session. Local economic figures to be released in the coming week includes current account and GDP data for the March quarter, while investors will also be awaiting the release of key US economic indicators, including the latest wages and consumer confidence data.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, SECURITIES INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION

Alarm over debt to GDP ratio

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-May-16

Analysis by Morgan Stanley suggests that each additional $A1 of GDP in 2015 cost more than $A9 of debt to generate. Morgan Stanley economist Daniel Blake says Australia must find ways to generate economic growth that are less dependent on debt. He warns that the decline in the productivity of Australia’s debt is likely to increase the severity of any economic downturn that may occur. He also argues that tax incentives should encourage investment in innovation and business start-ups rather than residential property.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Capex collapse as mining investment boom unwinds

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Original article by Daniel Palmer
The Australian – Page: 31 : 27-May-16

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that capital expenditure on buildings and equipment fell by 5.2 per cent in the March 2016 quarter, compared with expectations of a 3.5 per cent decline. Capex in the mining sector fell by 12 per cent and non-mining capex was down 0.4 per cent. Meanwhile, the latest figures show that capex is forecast to total $A89.2bn in 2016-17, compared with a previous forecast of $A82.6bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence creeps higher – up 0.6pts to 115.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose 0.5 per cent to 115.7 in the week ended 22 May 2016. It has risen 3.6 per cent over the past four weeks. The latest increase likely reflects several factors, including last week’s jobs report (which confirmed healthy conditions in the labour market), strong auction clearance rates, the positive impact from the RBA rate cut three weeks ago and ongoing gains in equity markets since early April. Consumers’ views towards their finances in the next 12 months rose 3.4 per cent, but consumers’ views toward economic conditions in the next 12 months fell slightly.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Low wage growth sparks bleak outlook

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 7 : 19-May-16

The Department of the Treasury will release its pre-election economic and fiscal outlook on 20 May 2016. It is not expected to make any significant changes to the forecasts in the May 2016 Budget, although the outlook report is likely to highlight the risks to the Budget if the forecasts are not met. Slowing wages growth is looming as a key risk for the Budget, which has forecast wages growth of 2.25 per cent in 2015-16 and 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. Wages grew by just 2.1 per cent over the last year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wage growth slumps to 18-year low

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 19-May-16

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages grew by just 0.4 per cent in the March 2016 quarter, and 2.1 per cent in the last year. Economists had forecast wages growth of 0.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively. David Bassanese of BetaShares says the low wages growth contributed to the Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the cash rate in May, adding that further easing of monetary policy is likely.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Building booms but salaries flatline

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 19-May-16

Official data shows that wages in the construction industry grew by 1.6 per cent in March 2016, which is the same rate of growth as February. Master Builders Australia’s Wilhelm Harnisch attributes the low growth in wages across the sector to a downturn in wages in mining construction following the end of the resources boom. The strong housing construction market in New South Wales and Victoria resulted in both states recording above-average rises in construction wages.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY FORUM

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence ticks up to 115.1 after Federal Election called for July 2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose 1.1 per cent to 115.1 in the week ended 15 May 2016, remaining above its long run average for the third consecutive week. The RBA’s cut to the official cash rate two weeks ago likely had a (delayed) positive impact on consumer confidence. Consumers’ views towards their current finances fell 1.8 per cent, but consumers’ views toward economic conditions in the next 12 months rose by 6.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

$1 trillion foreign debt a rating risk

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-May-16

Rating agencies have indicated that Australia’s ballooning foreign debt could prompt a review of the nation’s coveted "AAA" credit rating. Australia’s foreign debt has risen from 50 per cent of GDP to 62 per cent over the last three years, and it is now around $A1trn. Banks account for more than 50 per cent of Australia’s foreign debt, while the federal and state governments account for 25 per cent.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence unchanged at 113.9 after RBA rate cut and Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia remained unchanged at 113.9 in the week ended 8 May 2016. While the Reserve Bank’s cut to the official cash rate is likely to have been well received, any positive impact looks to have been somewhat offset by consumers’ reaction to the Commonwealth Budget. Consumers’ views towards their current personal finances fell 0.8 per cent, and consumers’ views toward the economic conditions in the next 12 months fell 1.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA