ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.7pts to 88.4 as Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales provide boost to confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4 Deceember 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.7pts to 88.4 in the week to 1 December, to its highest level since May 2022 – just after the last Federal Election. Consumer Confidence is now 12 points above the same week a year ago (76.4), and 5.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with increases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but decreases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 31% (up 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 42% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Government spending splurge props up GDP

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that federal and state government spending totalled $195.8bn in the September quarter. This is eight per cent higher year-on-year, and compares with average annual spending growth of 5.3 per cent in the decade prior to the pandemic. The ABS notes that recurrent government spending increased by 1.4 per cent in the quarter, which is partly due to federal and state government electricity bill subsidies. Meanwhile, Westpac says government spending is set to reach a record 27.8 per cent of GDP in the quarter, compared with 27.3 per cent in the three months to June. National accounts data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that annual GDP growth rose to 1.1 per cent in September.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Mining profits suffer a $4.6bn hit

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 3-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that profits in the nation’s resources sector fell by 8.8 per cent to $47.4bn in the September quarter. The $4.6bn downturn was driven by a decline in iron ore and coal exports, which will weigh on the federal government’s revenue and the budget bottom line. The figures also show that non-mining profits fell by 1.7 per cent to $74.1bn during the quarter, and by 2.8 per cent in the year to September. Meanwhile, GDP data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter and 1.1 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 85.7 in late November – but now six weeks above 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 85.7 in the week to 24 November; it has nevertheless stayed above the mark of 85 for a sixth consecutive week for the first time since June 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 9 points above the same week a year ago (76.7), and 3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW and SA more than offset by decreases in Victoria, Queensland, and WA. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Deficit disorder: spending blows budget

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Nov-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget deficit of $33.5bn for 2024-25, following a surplus of $15.8bn for the 2023-24 financial year. The Treasury itself had forecast a 2024-25 deficit of $28.3bn, and a cumulative deficit of $122.1bn over the four-year estimates period; Deloitte now expects the latter figure to be $149bn. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith adds that both the government and the Opposition will face pressure to provide further cost-of-living relief ahead of the 2025 election. Deloitte also notes that there has been a sharp increase in ‘off-budget’ spending, while the firm expects net debt to reach $727.6bn by mid-2028.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Jobs rush likely to postpone rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1 per cent in October, and RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is amongst the reasons why further interest rate increases could be on the agenda. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham agrees with the RBA’s assessment that the labour market may not weaken further, which is likely to rule out an interest rate cut in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.8 in mid-November – now five weeks above 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.8 in the week to 17 November; it has nevertheless stayed above the mark of 85 for a fifth consecutive week for the first time since October 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 12.1 points above the same week a year ago (74.7), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in Victoria, Queensland and WA, and small declines in New South Wales and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1pp) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 86.7 in mid-November after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 86.7 in the week to 10 November; however, it has stayed above the mark of 85 for a fourth consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 12.4 points above the same week a year ago (74.3), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW, WA and SA, and small declines in Victoria and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 45% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In October Australian unemployment dropped to 9.2% as full-time employment grew and over 100,000 left the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (down 0.3% to 9.2% of the workforce), as over 100,000 people left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.48 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 22,000 from September. In total, 2.93 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October. Australian employment dropped 58,000 to 14,247,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 190,000 to 4,743,000), but full-time employment increased 132,000 to a new record high of 9,504,000. The total workforce in October was 15,697,000 (down 118,000 from September, but up 867,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for September, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 12.4pts to 106.7 in October as official inflation falls into the RBA’s target range

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.7 (up 12.4pts since September) as official ABS monthly inflation dropped from 3.5% in July to 2.7% in August (announced in late September) and has now fallen to only 2.1% in September (announced in late October). Business Confidence is now 4.5pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 16.3pts on October 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has now improved to its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59% (up 6.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while only 36.8% (down 7.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.2ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for October are based on 1,884 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED