ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the cusp at 114.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 1.2 per cent to 114.5 in the week ended 22 November 2015. However, the four-week moving average continues to move higher, a trend that began when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The sub-index for consumers’ future finances fell by 4.7 per cent, although the sub-index for economic conditions in the short-term rose by 0.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Construction outlook good says HIA

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 24-Nov-15

A new report from the Housing Industry Association forecasts that total dwelling starts across Australia will exceed 200,000 in 2015-16. Chief economist Harley Dale says the residential construction market is set to remain buoyant for the next 12-18 months. Dale expects further growth in New South Wales housing starts in 2015, followed by a downturn in the following two years, while housing starts are tipped to fall in Victoria in the current year and the next two years.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Capex data to test Turnbull

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 23-Nov-15

The national capital spending survey for the September 2015 quarter will be a key focus for Australian investors in the week beginning 23 November 2015. Data from Bloomberg shows that economists generally expect the September quarter forecast for capex intentions in 2015-16 to be around $A120bn, compared with $A114bn in the June quarter. National Australia Bank is more upbeat, forecasting full-year capex of $A124bn.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 115.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 0.6 per cent to 115.9 in the week ended 15 November 2015. This follows confidence reaching the highest level in almost two years in the previous week, while the four-week moving average continues to trend higher. The fall in confidence was mainly attributed to consumers’ views towards the economic outlook. The sub-index "economic conditions in the next 12 months" was down 3.7 per cent, and "economic conditions in the next five years" was down 2.4 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says consumer confidence remains virtually unchanged, and all indicators of general confidence in Australia – including ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Confidence and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – have improved substantially over the past two months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Remains Elevated at 116.6 (up 1.4pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 1.2 per cent to 116.6 in the week ended 8 November 2015, reaching its highest level since January 2014. Confidence has been on an upward trend over the past few weeks, mainly driven by an improvement in households’ outlook on the economy. This likely reflects the ongoing support for the Turnbull government in creating an improving narrative on the prospects for the Australian economy. The sub-index "economic outlook in the next year" rose by 2.8 per cent, and "economic outlook in the next five years" rose by 7.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Consolidates

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 1.6 per cent to 115.2 in the week ended 1 November 2015. Despite recent moves by the big four banks to raise variable mortgage rates, this week’s result confirms that overall consumer confidence remains on an upward trend, most likely reflecting the increased faith in the new Prime Minister. The four-week moving average is now at its highest level since February 2014. The subindex "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has risen by 5.1 per cent, and is now 25 per cent higher than prior to the change in Prime Ministership.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In October: Real unemployment in Australia is 8.8% (up 0.5% in a month); but down 0.3% from a year ago (9.1%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Nov-15

A Roy Morgan Research survey on Australia’s labour market has found that the real unemployment rate was 8.8 per cent in October 2015, compared with 9.1 per cent 12 months earlier. The number of people in the workforce now totals 12,663,000 (up 654,000 since October 2014), while the number of people who are under-employed has fallen by 29,000 in the last 12 months to 1,088,000 (8.6 per cent of the workforce). The official unemployment rate was 6.2 per cent in September 2015. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the Federal Government’s main priority must be to eliminate the sizeable "cash economy" in Australia, which will free-up the labour market and have a much bigger impact on increasing productivity and employment growth than a simple increase in the GST.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, 7-ELEVEN STORES PTY LTD, UNITED PETROLEUM PTY LTD, BAKER’S DELIGHT HOLDINGS LIMITED, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, NANDO’S AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SUBWAY SANDWICHES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases again as RBA meets to decide on interest rates – now 115.2 (up 1.8pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 0.1 per cent to 115.2 in the week ended 1 November 2015. The largest contributor to the increase in consumer confidence over the past two weeks has been the positive increase in the "time to buy index", which has risen by seven per cent over the last fortnight and is now at +30 per cent. Meanwhile, 46 per cent (up two per cent in a fortnight) say now is a "good time to buy" major household items. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the recent ABS low inflation figure and the positive movement in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is a good sign for the Turnbull Government. However, the high level of real unemployment and under-employment is still Australia’s major problem. By implementing reforms to free-up the labour market the Government will have a much bigger and more positive impact on the Australian economy overall than the recent suggestion of tax reform and increasing the rate of the GST to 15 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, 7-ELEVEN STORES PTY LTD

Union membership slumps to record low, ABS finds

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Oct-15

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that just 1.6 million people across the economy are members of a union. The proportion of workers who are union members fell from 17 per cent to 15 per cent in the year to August 2014. Union membership in the private and public sectors has fallen to 11.1 per cent and 39 per cent respectively. However, ACTU secretary Dave Oliver estimates that about 1.8 million Australians are union members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN MINES AND METALS ASSOCIATION (INCORPORATED), AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Consumers ‘happiest in seven years’

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 28-Oct-15

Harvey Norman has posted pre-tax earnings of $A91.8m for the first quarter of 2015-16, which is 27.8 per cent higher than previously. The retailer’s same-store sales in Australia rose by 7.1 per cent year-on-year, and chairman Gerry Harvey says consumer confidence is at its highest level for at least seven years. Fantastic Holdings and Super Retail Group have also reported healthy growth in sales so far in 2015-16. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index has increased by 0.1 per cent to 113.4 in the last week.

CORPORATES
HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, FANTASTIC HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX FAN, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX PBG, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, SUPER CHEAP AUTO, REBEL SPORT LIMITED, RAY’S OUTDOORS, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD