ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 85.5 after the end of the Friday/Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts to 85.5 in the week to 8 December, following the end of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales weekend. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (80.8), and 2.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country, with a reversal of last weeks’ results including decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but increases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In November Australian unemployment dropped to 8.6% as employment grew by over 180,000 to a new record high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 88,000 to 1,362,000 (down 0.6% to 8.6% of the workforce), with many of these people finding employment. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 68,000 from October. In total, 2.91 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, Australian employment increased 183,000 to 14,430,000; this increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment, up 420,000 to 5,163,000 as the pre-Christmas and Black Friday sales period kicked off, but full-time employment decreased 237,000 to 9,267,000. The total workforce in November was 15,792,000 (up 95,000 from October, and up 874,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.6% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for October but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Public sector hides bad news for unions

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 11-Dec-24

Recent data from Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. However, new data reveals that this growth has been solely in the public sector, where union membership has increased by 191,000 over the last two years; in contrast, the number of private sector workers who are union members has fallen by more than 15,600 over this period. The number of public sector union members now exceed those in the private sector for the first time. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has sought to put a positive spin on the figures, but Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says they underline the fact that unions are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unions growing under Labor after decade of decline

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 10-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. Some 13 per cent of workers are now union members, compared with a record low of 12.5 per cent in 2022. The figures show that more than 1.6 million workers were members of a union in their main job in August, an increase of nearly 200,000 over the last two years. ACTU president Michele O’Neil has attributed the growth in union membership to the collective bargaining provisions of the federal government’s industrial relations reforms.

CORPORATES
ACTU, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA getting it wrong on jobs

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank convened for its final board meeting for 2024 on Monday, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus being joined by union members outside its Sydney headquarters as she called on the RBA to cut interest rates. Melbourne University economics professor Jeff Borland, who is considered Australia’s leading labor market expert, contends the Australian jobs market is not as strong as the RBA thinks, and that its true state does not justify the RBA keeping the cash rate at 4.35 per cent; the RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Financial stress rising as high costs continue

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 16 : 9-Dec-24

Research from credit rating agency Equifax suggests that 39 per cent of Australians are experiencing financial stress. The Equifax survey has also found that about 50 per cent of Australians have reduced their discretionary spending in the last year, compared with 37 per cent in 2022. Some 50 per cent of respondents also said their biggest financial priority for 2025 is paying down debt or ceasing to live from one pay cycle to the next. Separate data from the Australian Financial Security Authority shows that the number of personal insolvencies increased by 6.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
EQUIFAX INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SECURITY AUTHORITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.7pts to 88.4 as Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales provide boost to confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4 Deceember 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.7pts to 88.4 in the week to 1 December, to its highest level since May 2022 – just after the last Federal Election. Consumer Confidence is now 12 points above the same week a year ago (76.4), and 5.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with increases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but decreases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 31% (up 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 42% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Government spending splurge props up GDP

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that federal and state government spending totalled $195.8bn in the September quarter. This is eight per cent higher year-on-year, and compares with average annual spending growth of 5.3 per cent in the decade prior to the pandemic. The ABS notes that recurrent government spending increased by 1.4 per cent in the quarter, which is partly due to federal and state government electricity bill subsidies. Meanwhile, Westpac says government spending is set to reach a record 27.8 per cent of GDP in the quarter, compared with 27.3 per cent in the three months to June. National accounts data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that annual GDP growth rose to 1.1 per cent in September.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Mining profits suffer a $4.6bn hit

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 3-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that profits in the nation’s resources sector fell by 8.8 per cent to $47.4bn in the September quarter. The $4.6bn downturn was driven by a decline in iron ore and coal exports, which will weigh on the federal government’s revenue and the budget bottom line. The figures also show that non-mining profits fell by 1.7 per cent to $74.1bn during the quarter, and by 2.8 per cent in the year to September. Meanwhile, GDP data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter and 1.1 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS