ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Rate cut won’t stop insolvency trend overnight

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 8-Jan-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that nearly 26,000 businesses have become insolvent since the May 2022 federal election, including a record 12,405 in the first 11 months of 2024. McGrathNicol’s executive chairman Jason Preston says corporate Australia is being affected by factors such as structural challenges in many sectors, high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. Preston expects businesses to continue to collapse in 2025, and notes that the eventual interest rate cuts will take some time to have a positive effect on the business sector and consumer sentiment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, McGRATH NICOL AND PARTNERS SERVICES PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.6pts to 87.5, highest start to New Year for three years since 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.6pts to 87.5 in in early January, with the traditional ‘New Year’s bump’. Consumer Confidence is now 2.7 points above the same week a year ago (84.8), and 4.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but a decline in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 28% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record insolvencies tarnish Chalmers’ spin

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission undermines the federal government’s economic credentials. The figures show that 12,405 businesses were declared insolvent in the first 11 months of 2024. This includes a record 1,442 business failures in November, which is 62 per cent higher year-on-year. Nearly 26,000 businesses have collapsed since Labor won the May 2022 federal election; Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley notes that this is approximately the same as the number of additional public servants Labor has hired since it took office. Separate data shows that the number of welfare recipients has risen by about 83,000 year-on-year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in mid-December – up from 4.7% for the month of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Dec-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of 9-15 December. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, but up 0.1% points from the month of November. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – unchanged from September and October, and below the average so far this year of 4.9%. Looking back over the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,012 Australians aged 14+ in November 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.6pts to 83.9 as buying intentions plunge after the end of the Black Friday/ Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.6pts to 83.9 in the week to 15 December, following the end of the Black Friday sales period. However, Consumer Confidence is now 2.1 points above the same week a year ago (81.8), and 1 point above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with decreases in NSW, Victoria, and WA, offsetting small increases in Queensland and SA. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (down 5ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence virtually unchanged in November after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.9 (virtually unchanged from October) after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Business Confidence is now 4.3pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 21.1pts from November 2023. Business Confidence is now at its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 58.6% (down 0.4ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while only 37.6% (up 0.8ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 47.4% (up 1.4ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 22.4% (up 1.8ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,457 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 85.5 after the end of the Friday/Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts to 85.5 in the week to 8 December, following the end of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales weekend. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (80.8), and 2.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country, with a reversal of last weeks’ results including decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but increases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In November Australian unemployment dropped to 8.6% as employment grew by over 180,000 to a new record high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 88,000 to 1,362,000 (down 0.6% to 8.6% of the workforce), with many of these people finding employment. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 68,000 from October. In total, 2.91 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, Australian employment increased 183,000 to 14,430,000; this increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment, up 420,000 to 5,163,000 as the pre-Christmas and Black Friday sales period kicked off, but full-time employment decreased 237,000 to 9,267,000. The total workforce in November was 15,792,000 (up 95,000 from October, and up 874,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.6% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for October but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Public sector hides bad news for unions

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 11-Dec-24

Recent data from Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. However, new data reveals that this growth has been solely in the public sector, where union membership has increased by 191,000 over the last two years; in contrast, the number of private sector workers who are union members has fallen by more than 15,600 over this period. The number of public sector union members now exceed those in the private sector for the first time. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has sought to put a positive spin on the figures, but Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says they underline the fact that unions are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA