ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 85.7 in late November – but now six weeks above 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 85.7 in the week to 24 November; it has nevertheless stayed above the mark of 85 for a sixth consecutive week for the first time since June 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 9 points above the same week a year ago (76.7), and 3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW and SA more than offset by decreases in Victoria, Queensland, and WA. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Deficit disorder: spending blows budget

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Nov-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget deficit of $33.5bn for 2024-25, following a surplus of $15.8bn for the 2023-24 financial year. The Treasury itself had forecast a 2024-25 deficit of $28.3bn, and a cumulative deficit of $122.1bn over the four-year estimates period; Deloitte now expects the latter figure to be $149bn. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith adds that both the government and the Opposition will face pressure to provide further cost-of-living relief ahead of the 2025 election. Deloitte also notes that there has been a sharp increase in ‘off-budget’ spending, while the firm expects net debt to reach $727.6bn by mid-2028.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Jobs rush likely to postpone rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1 per cent in October, and RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is amongst the reasons why further interest rate increases could be on the agenda. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham agrees with the RBA’s assessment that the labour market may not weaken further, which is likely to rule out an interest rate cut in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.8 in mid-November – now five weeks above 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.8 in the week to 17 November; it has nevertheless stayed above the mark of 85 for a fifth consecutive week for the first time since October 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 12.1 points above the same week a year ago (74.7), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in Victoria, Queensland and WA, and small declines in New South Wales and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1pp) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 86.7 in mid-November after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 86.7 in the week to 10 November; however, it has stayed above the mark of 85 for a fourth consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 12.4 points above the same week a year ago (74.3), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW, WA and SA, and small declines in Victoria and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 45% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In October Australian unemployment dropped to 9.2% as full-time employment grew and over 100,000 left the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (down 0.3% to 9.2% of the workforce), as over 100,000 people left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.48 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 22,000 from September. In total, 2.93 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October. Australian employment dropped 58,000 to 14,247,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 190,000 to 4,743,000), but full-time employment increased 132,000 to a new record high of 9,504,000. The total workforce in October was 15,697,000 (down 118,000 from September, but up 867,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for September, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 12.4pts to 106.7 in October as official inflation falls into the RBA’s target range

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.7 (up 12.4pts since September) as official ABS monthly inflation dropped from 3.5% in July to 2.7% in August (announced in late September) and has now fallen to only 2.1% in September (announced in late October). Business Confidence is now 4.5pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 16.3pts on October 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has now improved to its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59% (up 6.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while only 36.8% (down 7.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.2ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for October are based on 1,884 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 86.5 in early November – before RBA meeting on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 86.5 in the week to 3 November; however, it has stayed above the mark of 85 for a third consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 8.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.8), and 4 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW, Victoria, and SA, an unchanged result in Queensland and a small decline in WA. Now 23% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.6% in late October – down from 4.7% for the month of September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Oct-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.6% for the week of October 21-27. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, and down 0.1% points from the month of September. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – down 0.3% points from a month earlier and below the average so far this year of 4.9%. Looking back over the first nine months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,031 Australians aged 14+ in September 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eases 1.1pts to 86.4 in late October – second week in a row above the mark of 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 86.4 in the week to 27 October; however, Consumer Confidence has stayed above the mark of 85 for a second consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 11.4 points above the same week a year ago (75.0), and 4 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.4. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the measure driven down by falls in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, virtually unchanged in Victoria and up in Western Australia. Now 24% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since November 2022), while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 2ppts of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since October 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ