ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.1pts to 87.5 – highest since January 2023 after negative sentiment subsides

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week to 20 October. Consumer Confidence has broken out of the sub-85 range for the first time in 90 weeks, and it now at its highest since January 2023; Consumer Confidence is also now 9.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and 5.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in all five mainland States this week, with the largest increases in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Now 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). However, only 8% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Oct-24

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that Australia and Slovakia will be the only two advanced economies with headline inflation above three per cent by the end of 2025. The IMF expects Australia’s inflation rate to rise to 3.6 per cent by December 2025, as federal and state government cost-of-living relief is wound back. The IMF had previously forecast in April that Australia’s inflation rate would fall to 2.8 per cent in 2025. While some economists do not expect the Reserve Bank to begin reducing the cash rate until the second half of 2025, the IMF forecasts that other central banks will aggressively ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, the IMF now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2024, compared with its April forecast of 1.5 per cent growth.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In September Australian unemployment increased to 9.5% as workforce grew to a record high; but not enough new jobs created

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

In September 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 87,000 to 1,510,000 (up 0.4% to 9.5% of the workforce), as more tham 100,000 people joined the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.45 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 43,000 from August. In total, 2.96 million Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September. However, overall employment was virtually unchanged, up 17,000 on a month ago to 14,305,000. Part-time employment increased by 32,000 to 4,933,000 while full-time employment dropped 15,000 to 9,372,000. The total workforce in September was 15,816,000 (up 105,000 from August, and up 497,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for September is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for August, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 83.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.4 in the week to 13 October. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 89 straight weeks below the mark of 85; however, it is now 7 points above the same week a year ago and 1.3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, down in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record number of small businesses go to the wall

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 2 : 9-Oct-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that administrators were appointed to 6,636 companies in the six months to September. The data also shows that 11,053 companies went into administration in the 2023-24 financial year. Some 22,800 businesses have collapsed since the federal election in May 2022, and shadow small business minister Sussan Ley says the government is on track to be the worst on record with regard to business insolvencies. Meanwhile, a report from the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia and the Commonwealth Bank has warned that operating conditions for small businesses are "arguably the most challenging in living memory".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 7pts to 94.3 in September with rising concerns about the next 12 months

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Oct-24

In September 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 94.3 (down 7pts since August), due to rising concerns about business conditions over the next 12 months after the Stage 3 income tax cuts gave a short-term boost to Business Confidence in July and August. Business Confidence is now 16.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 7.2pts on September 2023. Now 52.2% (down 4.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 44.7% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 41.1% (down 5.1ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 25% (up 5.3ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for September are based on 1,480 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.5pts to 83.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.5pts to 83.5 in the week to 6 October. Despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 88 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, it is now 3.4 points above the same week a year ago (80.1), and in line with the 2024 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, unchanged in Victoria, and down in South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 36% (up 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since March 2022), while 31% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 82.0 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts to 82.0 in the week to 29 September. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 87 straight weeks below the mark of 85; however, it is still 3.8 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and in line with the 2024 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but unchanged in Victoria and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Stalled spend lifts surplus to $15bn

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Oct-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has attributed the federal government’s higher-than-forecast budget surplus for 2023-24 to lower spending rather than increased taxes. The final budget outcome for 2023-24 has confirmed a surplus of $15.8bn, which is $9.3bn higher than was forecast in the May budget. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor claims that Labor is using temporary windfalls to boost the budget bottom line, adding that its two successive surpluses will be followed by a series of deficits. The government achieved significant savings by deferring expenditure in a range of areas in 2023-24; meanwhile, personal income tax revenue was $3.1bn lower than expected at $331.5bn and corporate tax receipts were $1.7bn below expectations at $141.2bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Sydney home values heading for fall this year

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 1-Oct-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that home values in Sydney rose by just 0.5 per cent during the September quarter. This is the NSW capital’s lowest monthly increase in house prices since February 2023, and Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says prices could begin to fall in coming months. Meanwhile, house prices in Melbourne fell by 1.1 per cent in the September quarter; Perth recorded growth of 4.7 per cent, while house price growth in Brisbane slowed to 2.7 per cent. House prices rose by one per cent nationally during the period.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD