ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 86.7 in mid-November after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 86.7 in the week to 10 November; however, it has stayed above the mark of 85 for a fourth consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 12.4 points above the same week a year ago (74.3), and 4.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW, WA and SA, and small declines in Victoria and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 45% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In October Australian unemployment dropped to 9.2% as full-time employment grew and over 100,000 left the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (down 0.3% to 9.2% of the workforce), as over 100,000 people left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.48 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 22,000 from September. In total, 2.93 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October. Australian employment dropped 58,000 to 14,247,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 190,000 to 4,743,000), but full-time employment increased 132,000 to a new record high of 9,504,000. The total workforce in October was 15,697,000 (down 118,000 from September, but up 867,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for September, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 12.4pts to 106.7 in October as official inflation falls into the RBA’s target range

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.7 (up 12.4pts since September) as official ABS monthly inflation dropped from 3.5% in July to 2.7% in August (announced in late September) and has now fallen to only 2.1% in September (announced in late October). Business Confidence is now 4.5pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 16.3pts on October 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has now improved to its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59% (up 6.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while only 36.8% (down 7.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.2ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for October are based on 1,884 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 86.5 in early November – before RBA meeting on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 86.5 in the week to 3 November; however, it has stayed above the mark of 85 for a third consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 8.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.8), and 4 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.5. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW, Victoria, and SA, an unchanged result in Queensland and a small decline in WA. Now 23% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.6% in late October – down from 4.7% for the month of September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Oct-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.6% for the week of October 21-27. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, and down 0.1% points from the month of September. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – down 0.3% points from a month earlier and below the average so far this year of 4.9%. Looking back over the first nine months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,031 Australians aged 14+ in September 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eases 1.1pts to 86.4 in late October – second week in a row above the mark of 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 86.4 in the week to 27 October; however, Consumer Confidence has stayed above the mark of 85 for a second consecutive week for the first time since January 2023. Consumer Confidence is now 11.4 points above the same week a year ago (75.0), and 4 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.4. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the measure driven down by falls in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, virtually unchanged in Victoria and up in Western Australia. Now 24% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since November 2022), while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 2ppts of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since October 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.1pts to 87.5 – highest since January 2023 after negative sentiment subsides

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week to 20 October. Consumer Confidence has broken out of the sub-85 range for the first time in 90 weeks, and it now at its highest since January 2023; Consumer Confidence is also now 9.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and 5.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in all five mainland States this week, with the largest increases in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Now 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). However, only 8% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Oct-24

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that Australia and Slovakia will be the only two advanced economies with headline inflation above three per cent by the end of 2025. The IMF expects Australia’s inflation rate to rise to 3.6 per cent by December 2025, as federal and state government cost-of-living relief is wound back. The IMF had previously forecast in April that Australia’s inflation rate would fall to 2.8 per cent in 2025. While some economists do not expect the Reserve Bank to begin reducing the cash rate until the second half of 2025, the IMF forecasts that other central banks will aggressively ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, the IMF now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2024, compared with its April forecast of 1.5 per cent growth.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In September Australian unemployment increased to 9.5% as workforce grew to a record high; but not enough new jobs created

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

In September 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 87,000 to 1,510,000 (up 0.4% to 9.5% of the workforce), as more tham 100,000 people joined the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.45 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 43,000 from August. In total, 2.96 million Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September. However, overall employment was virtually unchanged, up 17,000 on a month ago to 14,305,000. Part-time employment increased by 32,000 to 4,933,000 while full-time employment dropped 15,000 to 9,372,000. The total workforce in September was 15,816,000 (up 105,000 from August, and up 497,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for September is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for August, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 83.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.4 in the week to 13 October. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 89 straight weeks below the mark of 85; however, it is now 7 points above the same week a year ago and 1.3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, down in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ