ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Hunt for budget savings to extend beyond public service

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Original article by Luke Kinsella, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 3-Dec-25

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher says the federal government has asked cabinet ministers to identify the five per cent of spending across their portfolios that is deemed to be the lowest priority. Her comments at a Senate estimates hearing suggest that Labor is seeking to cut spending across the public sector, rather than just the public service. Meanwhile, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that public sector demand increased by 1.2 per cent in the September quarter, following two quarters of negative growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 5.4% in late November – up 0.4% points from the month of October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a near two-year high at 5.4% for the week of November 17-23, up 0.4% points from the full month of October; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for October shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – up 0.1% points from September, although since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since early June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4% and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for October shows increases around Australia in all six States. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,099 Australians aged 14+ in October 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.9pts to 87.1 driven higher for second straight week by more confidence about buying conditions ahead of Black Friday sales weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.9pts to 87.1 in the week to 23 November; it is now 1.4pts higher than a year ago (85.7), and 0.7pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence is up in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but it is down in Queensland. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 10% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 27% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress drops to lowest since February 2023 following RBA interest rate cut in August to 3.6%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 25.3% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to October 2025, down 2.6% points from August. This is the lowest share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since February 2023, when the share ‘At Risk’ first rose above one-in-four mortgage holders (where it has stayed ever since). The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 518,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 903,000 (17.3% of mortgage holders), which is 1% point above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.7pts to 84.2 driven higher by more confidence about buying conditions heading towards next week’s Black Friday sales weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.7pts to 84.2 in the week to 16 November; however, it is now 2.6pts lower than a year ago (86.8), and 2.2pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales and Queensland, unchanged in Victoria, but down in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence virtually unchanged at 101.7 after the RBA leaves interest rates at 3.6%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-25

In October 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was virtually unchanged at 101.7. The result followed the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in late September at 3.6%. Business Confidence is now 8.2pts below the long-term average of 109.9, and down 5pts from October 2024. Now 30.6% (down 2.8ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago, while 34.1% (down 0.5ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 42.2% (up 2.6ppts) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 22.3% (up 2.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Some 37.4% (down 1.9ppts) respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 34.9% (up 5.4ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1pt to 83.5 after higher-than-expected ABS CPI for September quarter and in the week the RBA left interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1pt to 83.5 in the week to 9 November; it is now 3.2pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and 3pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, but up in Victoria and Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 8% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Only 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.3pts to 84.5 after higher-than-expected ABS CPI for September quarter ends speculation about more interest rate cuts this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Nov-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 84.5 in the week to 2 November; it is now 2pts lower than a year ago (86.5), and 2.1pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.6. Analysis by State shows a fairly consistent result, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up marginally in Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 10% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Only 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation is going north, wages south

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in late October – down 0.1% points from the month of September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Oct-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% for the week of 20-26 October, down 0.1% points from the full month of September. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – down 0.1% points from August. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of September 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for September shows mixed results, with decreases in Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, unchanged in Victoria, and up in Tasmania.. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,097 Australians aged 14+ in September 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ