ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 3.4 points to 90.2 in April before the RBA hiked interest rates in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

In April 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.2 (down 3.4pts since March), before the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.85%. Business Confidence has returned to its level of November 2022 (90.2), when official interest rates were at 2.85%; there have since been four interest rate increases, totalling 1% points. Business Confidence is now 22.1pts below the long-term average of 112.3. Now 38.7% (down 3.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.7% (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 5.6ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 51.7% (up 6.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. Only 37.4% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 60.1% (down 0.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian employment hit a record high above 13.8 million in April as unemployment fell 0.9% to 8.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 124,000 to 1.29 million (8.5% of the workforce) in April. However, underemployment was up 21,000 to 1.34 million (8.9% of the workforce). A total of 2.63 million Australians (17.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in April, down 103,000 from March. Meanwhile, employment increased by 240,000 to 13,814,000 in April. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 68,000 to a new record high of 9,058,000; part-time employment also increased, up 172,000 to 4,756,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for April is 5% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for March and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 79.8 and has now spent a record nine straight weeks below 80

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 79.8 in the week to April 30. The index has now spent nine straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 10.9pts below the same week a year ago (90.7), and 0.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.7. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the States, with increases in Queensland and WA, but down in NSW, Victoria and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 31% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Builders hit a high for insolvencies

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 3-May-23

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that an additional 71 businesses in the construction sector were declared insolvent in April. There have now been 1,672 construction industry insolvencies so far in the current financial year; this is the highest level since 2014, when 1,802 companies collapsed during the equivalent period. The Association of Professional Builders’ co-founder Russ Stephens says the construction sector has been too dependent on cash flow, with many firms facing financial problems once cash flows started to decline.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, ASSOCIATION OF PROFESSIONAL BUILDERS

Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% points to 5.6% in March 2023 – the first monthly increase since November 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

In March 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.6% annually over the next two years, up 0.3% points from February. The monthly increase in Inflation Expectations came before the RBA decided to pause its cycle of interest rate rises in early April. The monthly increase in March has been sustained in the first two weeks of April, with weekly Inflation Expectations now at 5.6% in mid-April and averaging 5.6% over the last six weeks. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows rising Inflation Expectations across the Australian mainland in March, although there was a significant decline in the island state of Tasmania. Inflation Expectations were highest in South Australia at 5.9% (up 0.9% points from a month ago) in March ahead of New South Wales at 5.7% (up 0.3% points) and Queensland also at 5.7% (up 0.1% points). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,987 Australians aged 14+ in March.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining deals boost Chinese investment tally

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 16 : 19-Apr-23

A report from KPMG and the University of Sydney shows that Chinese investment in Australia totalled $US1.4bn ($A2.08bn) in 2022. This was 143 per cent higher than in 2021, and the first increase in six years. Four large mining deals accounted for the bulk of the Chinese investment, headlined by Baowu Steel’s agreement to inject $1bn into Rio Tinto’s Western Range iron ore project in the Pilbara. Meanwhile, Chinese investors bought just $14m worth of Australian commercial real estate assets in 2022, down from $208m in 2021. Chinese investment in Australia peaked at $US16.2bn in 2008.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CHINA BAOWU STEEL GROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 77.2 in the week to April 16. The index has now been below the mark of 80 for a seventh straight week – the longest stretch since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 19.6pts below the same week a year ago (96.8) and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.0. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia; it now the only State with Consumer Confidence above the mark of 80. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Construction insolvencies approach decade high

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 31 : 19-Apr-23

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that there were 524 insolvencies in the construction sector in the March quarter and 1,601 in the first nine months of 2022-23. Australian Restructuring Insolvency & Turnaround Association CEO John Winter says the number of insolvencies in the sector is on track to exceed the decade-high of 1,802 recorded in fiscal 2014. He adds that the residential construction sector is suffering a severe hangover after years of a surge fuelled by cheap credit.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN RESTRUCTURING INSOLVENCY AND TURNAROUND ASSOCIATION

Twin RBA rate rises may be on horizon

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 19-Apr-23

Morgan Stanley believes that the strength of the domestic economy means that the Reserve Bank of Australia may increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in both August and September. Shares in retail and property-related stocks have risen in recent weeks amid speculation that the RBA’s monetary policy tightening cycle may have ended following the pause in April. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that the rebound may be premature, given that inflation remains high and the official unemployment rate is steady at 3.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.2 points to 93.6 in March before the RBA paused interest rate hikes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

In March 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.6 (down 2.2pts since February), after the RBA raised interest rates for a record tenth consecutive meeting in March but before it left the cash rate unchanged in April. The fall in Business Confidence in March was the second consecutive fall after a new year’s boost in January, although the index remains below the recent low of 90.2 reached in November 2022. Business Confidence is also 18.9pts below the long-term average of 112.5. Now 41.8% of businesses (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.1% (down 1ppt) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.1% (down 0.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 45.2% (down 1ppt) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED