ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence virtually unchanged in May as Federal Budget fails to provide a confidence boost

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-23

In May 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.3 (up 0.1pts since April). The Business Confidence survey was conducted after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the Federal Government’s Budget in early May, but before the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%. Business Confidence has now spent four consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence is now 21.9pts below the long-term average of 112.2. Now 40.2% (up 1.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 25.1% (down 2.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.8ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 47% (down 4.7ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. However, only 38% (up 0.6ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 61.2% (up 1.1ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 75.8 this week before RBA meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jun-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 75.8 in the week to 4 June. Consumer Confidence has now spent 14 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 11.2pts below the same week a year ago (87), and 4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.8. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in NSW and SA. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 28% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic), while 39% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 5% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Pain, blame and, at this rate, it’s not over

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Jun-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has defended the decision to increase the case rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. He says the 12th rate rise since May 2022 was necessary to provide greater confidence that inflation will return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. He also cautioned that further rate rises may be needed, depending on the outlook for the economy and inflation. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry contends that the recent 5.75 per cent increase in the minimum wage had forced the RBA’s hand. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers rejects suggestions that the minimum wage increase and the federal government’s 9 May budget were to blame for the latest rate rise. The cash rate is now at its highest level since April 2012.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Australian unemployment drops to 8.4% in May – the lowest since September 2022 (8.1%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-23

In May unemployment dropped 0.1% points to 8.4%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data – the fourth straight monthly drop. Unemployment is now at its lowest since COVID-19 restrictions lifted in late 2022. However, there was a rise in under-employment in May, up 0.9% points to 9.8%, to its highest level this year. The rise in under-employment came as part-time employment increased to 4.86 million – a fourth straight month of increases. The rising cost of living, with high inflation and increasing interest rates, are leading to more Australians in part-time employment needing to work more hours to earn a sufficient income. These people in part-time employment looking for more hours are considered under-employed – now nearly 10% of the workforce. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.4% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for April, and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.8%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Why Australians are paying 50% more for air fares than pre-pandemic even as jet fuel costs drop

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Original article by Jonathan Barrett, Elias Visontay
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 31-May-23

Data from the International Air Transport Association shows that the price of aviation fuel has halved since peaking in mid-2022, and it is now priced at around the levels at which many airlines operated profitably in 2018. However, data from flight search company Kayak shows that this is not being reflected in the price of airfares in Australia. The average domestic airfare is now about 10 per cent higher than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, while the average international airfare is more than 50 per cent higher. Nick Schroeder from IBISWorld expects the price of international airfares to start falling in the second half of 2023, adding that they could potentially fall to around pre-pandemic levels within 18-24 months.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION, KAYAK, IBISWORLD PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 76.2 – back to the level of two weeks ago in early May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 76.2 in the week to 28 May. Consumer Confidence has now spent 13 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 14.5pts below the same week a year ago (90.7), and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.0. Consumer Confidence reversed last week’s results and was down in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA, but up in NSW. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 29% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Shrinking pipeline for attached homes hits hard

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 31-May-23

The latest official building approvals data highlights the growing supply crisis in Australia’s housing market. The figure show that just 3,545 new apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes were approved in April, which is the lowest level since January 2012. Approvals for detached homes fell by 3.6 per cent month-on-month to 8,049. A total of 11,594 dwellings of all types were approved in April, which is an 11-year low. Maree Kilroy of Oxford Economics Australia says a sharp downturn is under way and the firm does not expect dwelling approvals to rebound until late 2024.

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OXFORD ECONOMICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 77.3 – recovering some of the post-RBA interest rate increase slump

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 77.3 in the week to 21 May. The index has now spent 12 straight weeks below the mark of 80; the last time Consumer Confidence spent at least 12 weeks below the mark of 80 was during the 1990-91 recession, when the index was conducted on a monthly rather than a weekly basis. Consumer Confidence is now 13.5pts below the same week a year ago (90.8), and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.2. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA, but down in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 7ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (unchanged) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.3% points to 5.3% in April 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

In April 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.3% points from March. The monthly decrease in Inflation Expectations came before the RBA decided to increase interest rates in early May and before last week’s Federal Budget. The monthly decrease in April has been sustained in the first two weeks of May, with weekly Inflation Expectations still at 5.3% in mid-May and averaging 5.3% since late March. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows Inflation Expectations declining in most States in April; however, Queensland and Tasmania bucked the trend. A key factor to take account of is that Queensland and Tasmania are the two most decentralised States in Australia, with the majority of the population living outside the respective Capital Cities. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 7,489 Australians aged 14+ in April.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Kickstart productivity or be kicked: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Giuseppe Tauriello
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-23

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that the decision to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in May was a "finely balanced" one. Amongst other things, the board members noted that the nation’s declining productivity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could make it difficult to bring inflation back under control. The RBA has warned that further interest rate increases are likely unless productivity is ‘kickstarted’. Analysts believe that quarterly wage price index data to be released on Wednesday could determine whether the RBA increases the cash rate in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA