ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces slightly, up 0.9pts to 86.8 over four-day holiday weekend for many

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 86.8 in the week to 29 January, the third increase out of four weeks so far this year. However, Consumer Confidence is still 15pts below the same week a year ago (101.8), and 1.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence around Australia was mixed, with the measure up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s softening inflation unlikely to spell an end to interest rate hikes

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data for the December quarter on Wednesday. Many economists expect the annual headline inflation rate to have peaked at 7.5 per cent in the quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent in the previous three months. The trimmed mean is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of inflation; the general consensus of economists is that this will be 6.4 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, the ANZ Bank expects a headline inflation rate of 7.7 per cent and a trimmed mean of 6.7 per cent. The bank contends that the RBA is likely to increase the cash rate three times by May, given that both measures will still be well above its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 85.9, first fall in the index of the New Year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 85.9 in the week ended 22 January. Consumer Confidence is now 14.2pts below the same week a year ago (100.1), and 2.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was down slightly in most parts of Australia including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland, but it was up in South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late May 2022 – the week after the election of the Albanese Government). Meanwhile, 23% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs data is too old – we are in a new world

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 61 : 20-Jan-23

Official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy shed 14,600 jobs in December. Economists had expected a gain of about 25,000 jobs. It is important to keep in mind that the ABS data only covers the first two weeks of December, and is therefore already five or six weeks old. The ABS itself concedes that it is only 95 per cent confident that the change in jobs was somewhere between a fall of 78,400 and an increase of 49,200. The loss of 78,000 jobs leading into the Christmas peak retail season would raise concerns about a recession, as well as the prospect of interest rate cuts. A strong increase in jobs could in turn prompt the Reserve Bank to resume lifting the cash rate by 50 basis points. More relevant and more recent evidence on what is happening with the economy will be available when the central bank’s board meets in early February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ABS unemployment follows Roy Morgan’s unemployment data showing job losses in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Jan-23

The latest ABS unemployment data released yesterday showed employment down by 14,600 in December, in line with the already released Roy Morgan employment data which showed employment down by 12,000. The ABS data also showed a rise of 0.1% points in the unemployment rate in line with the increase in Roy Morgan’s unemployment rate, up 0.3% points in December – although ABS unemployment at 3.5% is less than half that of Roy Morgan (9.3%). The ABS employment data was collected at the start of December and may be the first inkling of a weakening economy. The decline in jobs in December shows why it is so important for the Albanese Government to get their industrial relations policies right – including dealing with the cash economy. Younger people are heavily represented in the cash economy, which is widespread in the retail and hospitality industries, and also for those employed for domestic duties and in childcare. View the latest Roy Morgan employment data to learn more.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment increased to 9.3% in December in line with the usual seasonal trends for this time of the year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jan-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.38 million Australians (9.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, up 46,000 from November. The increase in unemployment was in line with the usual seasonal trends seen at this time of the year as school leavers and university students joined the workforce. The number of Australians looking for full-time work rose 89,000 to 595,000 in December, while the number of people looking for part-time work fell 43,000 to 789,000. Some 1.36 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – down 16,000 from November. In total, 2.74 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 30,000 on November. Meanwhile, employment decreased by 12,000 to 13,568,000 in December. This was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 97,000 to 8,771,000), although part-time employment increased in line with the usual seasonal trends (up by 85,000 to 4,797,000). Roy Morgan’s under-employment figure of 9.1% is over 3% points higher than the ABS estimate of 5.8% for November.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Real wages growth story is an ugly one

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 18-Jan-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has talked up the fact that wages grew by 3.1 per cent in the year to November. This was the fastest growth in wages since September 2013, and Chalmers has highlighted the fact that average wage growth has been just 2.3 per cent annually over the last decade. However, an inflation rate of 7.3 per cent means that real wages shrank by 4.2 per cent in the year to September, and average annual real wage growth over the last decade was just 0.4 per cent. The Treasury and the Reserve Bank do not anticipate real wage growth until 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence rebounded by 5.8 points to 96.0 in December as Australians spent big for Christmas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-23

In December 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 5.8 points to 96.0, largely recovering from the 6.4 point decline in November. The increase in Business Confidence came despite the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for an eighth straight month in early December. However, Business Confidence is 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.8. Now 39.2% (up 5.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 39.4% (up 5.9ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, 58.7% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, and 54.5% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years.’ Some 47.3% (up 2.6ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 39.6% (down 3.5ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 87.7 in second week of January – highest since September 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 87.7 in the week ended 15 January, at its highest level since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is 10.5pts below the same week a year ago (97.9), although it is now only 1pt below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was mixed around Australia and was up in Victoria and Western Australia (for the first time this year), but down in NSW, Queensland and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 35% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since March 2022), while 29% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.9pts to 87.4 in traditional New Year’s bounce – highest since September 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.9pts to 87.4 in the week ended 8 January, to reach its highest level since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is 18.6pts below the same week a year ago (106.0), although it is now only 1.3pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but down in Western Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 33% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 5ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 9% (up 3ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ