ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.7pts to 72.6 – third straight week of declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.7pts to 72.6 in the week to 16 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 20 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.2pts below the same week a year ago (81.8), and 5.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.4. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales and Victoria, but up slightly Queensland, WA and SA. Now only 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 57% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high for this indicator in 50 years of interviewing). Some 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 57% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations down 0.4% points to 5.5% in mid-July after rising significantly in June and early July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are down 0.4% points to 5.5% in mid-July after increasing steadily during June. This week Australians expected inflation of 5.5% annually over the next two years. Despite the weekly fall, the measure has averaged 5.7% so far in July after increasing significantly from a weekly low of 5.1% in mid-May. The monthly figure for June showed Inflation Expectations of 5.6%, an increase of 0.4% points from May, and the equal highest monthly figure so far this year after dipping to its lowest in over a year in May. Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations during 2023 have consistently been followed weeks later by the ABS CPI figures. The monthly ABS CPI figures dropped to 5.6% in May 2023 – down 1.2% points from April (6.8% annual CPI). If the trend continues, we can expect to see the ABS CPI annual figures for June register an increase after dipping in May. The ABS CPI figures for June are due to be released on 26 July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,966 Australians aged 14+ in June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 73.3 despite the RBA holding interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8pts to 73.3 in the week to 9 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 19 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 8.3pts below the same week a year ago (81.6), and 5.3pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.6. Consumer Confidence was unchanged in New South Wales but down in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA. Now only 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 56% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 74.1 before the RBA meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8pts to 74.1 in the week to 2 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 18 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.6pts below the same week a year ago (83.7), and 4.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.8. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, but up in WA and SA. Now only 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the equal record high for this indicator). Some 28% (unchanged) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

1.4m borrowers at risk of repayment stress

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jul-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that further interest rate rises may be necessary in order to return inflation to its target range, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. Households will face further financial pressure if there are more rate rises. Home loan borrowers will be particularly vulnerable, with research from Roy Morgan showing that 1.43 million mortgage borrowers are now at risk of mortgage stress; this is an increase of 627,000 in the last year. Roy Morgan estimates that an additional 51,000 borrowers would be at risk of mortgage stress if the cash rate is increased by another 25 basis points. A second rate rise of this size would put another 94,000 borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment jumped to 10.3% in June – the highest since January 2023 (10.7%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed rose by 314,000 to 1,572,000 (10.3% of the workforce) in June. However, underemployment fell 50,000 to 1,415,000 (9.3% of the workforce, down 0.5% points). A total of 2.99 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in June, up by 264,000 from May. Meanwhile, employment fell by 72,000 to 13,635,000 in June. The drop was due to a fall in part-time employment (down 167,000 to 4,697,000), while full-time employment was up 94,000 to 8,937,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.3% for June is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for May and is closer to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Surplus bounty pushes tax take past 24pc

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-Jul-23

Record revenue from company and personal income taxes has resulted in the federal budget being in surplus by $19bn for the first 11 months of 2022-23, putting it on track for a surplus of around $20bn for the financial year. This compares with Treasury’s forecast of a $4.2bn surplus when the budget was released in early May. Economist Chris Richardson estimates that the tax-to-GDP ratio is currently around 24.2 per cent; it has breached the 24 per cent level for the first time since 2007-08, and Richardson believes that this could become a permanent trend. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously stated that he does not feel bound by the former Coalition government’s cap of 23.9 per cent, describing it as "arbitrary".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Real unemployment in June up 1.9% to 10.3%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In June Roy Morgan shows ‘real unemployment’ jumped 1.9% to 10.3% – reversing a series of recent drops. This is the highest ‘real unemployment’ has been since January. In contrast, under-employment was down by 0.5% to 9.3% with fewer people employed part-time in June. Overall though this mean a large rise in combined unemployment and under-employment, up 1.4% to 19.6% of the workforce (2.99 million Australians) – again, this was the highest combined figure since January. These monthly movements take place within the broader context of longer-term trends in the Australian workforce – the total number of people employed or looking for work. The Australian workforce has grown rapidly over the last year. The annual increase in the working aged Australian population hit a record in the year to June 2023 – up by 632,000 to 21.9 million. This surge in the population helped drive the workforce up by 715,000 to over 15.2 million – the second largest annual increase on record. These large increases mean that employment growth has continued over the last year, despite the falls we see in the month of June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increased to 5.9% this week – far higher than May average of 5.2%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In the last week Roy Morgan’s weekly Inflation Expectations is up 0.4% to 5.9% – far higher than the May average of 5.2%. Australians expect inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May of 5.2% was down 0.1% from April, and could be an indicator for today’s ABS May CPI figure. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May was the lowest monthly reading since February 2022. However, the latest figures show that the back-to-back decreases in monthly Inflation Expectations in April and May have not been sustained, with weekly Inflation Expectations rising throughout June and now at 5.9%. Looking longer-term, Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.4% so far during 2023 and are down from a monthly high of 6.5% in November 2022 and down significantly from a weekly high of 6.8% in early November. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,943 Australians aged 14+ in May.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.5pts to 74.9 – biggest weekly increase since the first week of January 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.5pts to 74.9 in the week to 25 June. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent 17 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.8pts below the same week a year ago (84.7), and 4.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.0. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA. Now 20% of Australians (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 6% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ