ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Government spending tops $1trn for the first time

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Sep-25

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the combined recurrent spending of the federal and state governments rose by 7.7 per cent in 2024-25, to $1.02 trillion. In contrast, government revenue increased by just four per cent during the financial year. The increase in recurrent spending was driven by a number of factors, with government employee costs rising by 8.8 per cent and social benefits up 11.9 per cent. EY’s chief economist Cherelle Murphy warns that fiscal sustainability across the federal and state governments will be at risk if the current spending trends continue, which could potentially result in credit rating downgrades.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ERNST AND YOUNG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2pts to 88.0 in late August; driven by more positive views on buying conditions

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Sep-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2pts to 88.0 in the week to 31 August. Consumer Confidence is now 4.9 points above the same week a year ago (83.1), and 1.2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales and Western Australia, down in Victoria and South Australia and virtually unchanged in Queensland. Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 14% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 29% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Just 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.4pts to 86.0 in late August – its lowest for two months since mid-June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.4pts to 86.0 in the week to 24 August; it was the first full week of interviewing after the Reserve Bank reduced official interest rates to 3.6 per cent. Consumer Confidence is now 3.4 points above the same week a year ago (82.6), but 0.8pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales but down in every other State. Now 21% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 12% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Just 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations up slightly to 5% in late August – up from 4.8% for the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Aug-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5% for the week of 18-24 August, up 0.2% points from the month of July but down from the peak of 5.2% in early August. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July 2025 shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – unchanged from June and level with the average so far this year (also 4.8%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of July 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for July shows mixed results, with increases in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania; this was offset by decreases in Victoria and Western Australia, leaving the overall figure unchanged from a month ago. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,036 Australians aged 14+ in July 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for those with a mortgage, but down for home owners after Reserve Bank cuts rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 89.4 in the week to 17 August, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.6%. However, Consumer Confidence is now 6.4 points above the same week a year ago (83.0), and 2.6pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Queensland and South Australia, but down in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Importantly, the Consumer Confidence of home owners has dropped by 2.6 points this week, although the Consumer Confidence for people with a mortgage has increased by 2.1 points. Meanwhile, 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 42% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 29% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Just 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence softens ahead of RBA interest rates decision, down 1.3pts to 89.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 89.3 in the week to 10 August. However, Consumer Confidence is now 5.4 points above the same week a year ago (83.9), and 2.5pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but down in Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 13% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA’s grim growth warning

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Aug-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for productivity growth in the medium-term from one per cent to just 0.7 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock says lower productivity growth is already resulting in slower growth in real wages; she adds that the central bank cannot do anything to lift productivity, and the outlook for this metric will depend on what the federal government does in response to its economic reform summit next week. The RBA has also warned that the domestic economy can now sustain a GDP growth rate of just two per cent a year. Meanwhile, economists expect another official interest rate cut by the end of 2025, after the RBA reduced it by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In July Australian unemployment was virtually unchanged at 10.3%, but under-employment surged to 10.9%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

In July 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 10,000 to 1,644,000 (down 0.1% to 10.3% of the workforce). The small dip in unemployment was driven by fewer people looking for part-time work (down 157,000 to 949,000), which was offset by people looking for full-time work (up 147,000 to 695,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.74 million Australians (up 1% to 10.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 158,000 from June). In total, 3.38 million Australians (21.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July. Meanwhile, Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,930,000 in July, up 43,000 on a month ago, and representing 69% of Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.9pts to 90.6 – first rating above 90 for over three years since May 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.9pts to 90.6 in the week to 3 August. Consumer Confidence is now 9.3 points above the same week a year ago (81.3), and 3.9pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.7. Analysis by State shows increases across the board with all five mainland States up this week, led by Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia – all at 90 or above. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest this figure has been since May 2022). Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 6ppts) also expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 12% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up slightly in July as business grow more confident about their prospects

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-25

In July 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 0.6pts to 103.0, despite the Reserve Bank electing to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.85% amid widespread expectations of a cut to interest rates. Business Confidence is now 7pts below the long-term average of 110, although it is up 7.9pts from July 2024. Now 32.2% (up 5.8ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 33.5% (down 7.1ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.9% (up 1.3ppts) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.3% (down 1.4ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,246 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED