ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Have business failures finally hit the peak?

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Original article by Giuseppe Tauriello
The Australian – Page: 19 : 23-Jul-25

Official data shows that 14,716 businesses were declared insolvent in 2024-25, which is 33 per cent higher than the previous financial year. However, CreditorWatch’s latest Business Risk Index report has concluded that the monthly rate of insolvencies may have peaked; it notes that just 1,305 businesses collapsed in June, which is 10 per cent lower than the high reached in November 2024. CreditorWatch also notes that business-to-business payment defaults fell by 6.5 per cent in June. CEO Patrick Coghlan remains cautious, noting that the global economic environment is still "highly uncertain"; he adds that the Australian Taxation Office has become more aggressive about recovering tax debts.

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CREDITOR WATCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.1pts to 86.5 after the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.85%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 86.5 in the week to 13 July; however, Consumer Confidence is now 8 points above the same week a year ago (78.5), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.6. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence down in Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, but up in South Australia and Queensland. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In June Australian unemployment dropped to 10.4% driven by rise in new jobs – especially full-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jul-25

In June 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 61,000 to 1,654,000 (down 0.5% to 10.4% of the workforce), a second straight monthly fall. The decrease in unemployment was driven by fewer people looking for both full-time work (down 18,000 to 548,000) and part-time work (down 43,000 to 1,106,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.58 million Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 143,000 from May). In total, 3.23 million Australians (20.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June. Meanwhile, Roy Morgan estimates that the overall workforce size (which adds together both the employed and unemployed) at 15,887,000 in June, up 147,000 on a month ago and representing 68.8% of Australians aged 14+. Employment increased by 208,000 to 14,233,000; this was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment (up 229,000 to 9,211,000); however, part-time employment dropped 21,000 to 5,022,000.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up for a third straight week, up by 1.4pts to 88.6, before Reserve Bank meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 88.6 in the week to 6 July, and is now at its highest since mid-May. Consumer Confidence is 9.6 points above the same week a year ago (79.0), and 2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.6. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 20% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 29% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases driven by more confidence about the year ahead

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-25

In June 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.8pts to 102.4 in the month after the Federal Election; it is now marginally above the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 7.7pts below the long-term average of 110.1, although it is up 0.9pts from June 2024. Now 26.4% (up 3.9ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago, while 40.6% (up 4.6ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 39.6% (up 7.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 21.7% (down 1.8ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for June are based on 1,215 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Treasurer’s calling but RBA puts him on hold

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Jul-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold is not the outcome that millions of Australians were hoping for and financial market had expect. Most economists had expected a rate cut on Tuesday, and financial markets had priced in a near-100 per cent chance. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock contends that traders were too focused on the monthly inflation data for June, which showed a headline rate of 2.1 per cent; she says the monthly figures are volatile and the RBA board is not yet convinced that inflation is that low in a "sustainable way". The RBA will instead wait for inflation data for the June quarter to be released at the end of this month. Six members of the monetary policy board voted to leave the cash rate at 3.85 per cent, while three favoured a rate cut.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 87.2 as buying sentiment improves for a second straight week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Jul-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 87.2 in the week to 29 June, and is now at its highest since mid-May. Consumer Confidence is now 5.9 points above the same week a year ago (81.3), and just above the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales and South Australia, down in Queensland and Western Australia, and unchanged in Victoria. Now 17% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 31% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Build times go through the roof

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Original article by Jessica Wang
The Australian – Page: 7 : 2-Jul-25

Analysis by the Institute of Public Affairs shows that it took an average of 12.7 months to build a new home in 2024, from initial approval to completion. This compares with an average of 8.5 months in 2014. The IPA’s analysis of building activity data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics also shows that the cost of building materials has increased by 53 per cent over this period. The IPA’s research director Morgan Begg says all levels of government must take action to address the housing crisis; amongst other things, he has called for a reduction in the migrant intake, less red tape and the release of more land for housing development.

CORPORATES
INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

FY25 the worst year on record for insolvencies

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Original article by Joseph Carbone
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 2-Jul-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that a record 14,105 businesses were declared insolvent nationwide during 2024-25, which is 26.8 per cent higher than the previous financial year. The figures, which cover the fiscal year up to to 15 June, also show that the construction sector was hardest-hit, recording 3,417 insolvencies. CreditorWatch’s chief economist Ivan Colhoun says the upturn in insolvencies is at least partly attributable to the Australian Taxation Office’s tougher stance on recovering debts after a period of leniency during the pandemic.

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AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, CREDITOR WATCH PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased slightly to 4.7% in mid-June – up from 4.6% for the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.7% for the week of 16-22 June, up 0.1% points from the month of May, following a volatile period for the measure in early June. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2025 shows the measure at 4.6% for the month – a decrease of 0.2% points from April and level with the near four year low reached in February 2025 (4.6%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of May 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for May shows mixed results, with an increase in Queensland, an unchanged result in Western Australia and falls in the four other States. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,090 Australians aged 14+ in May 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ