ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 86.7, driven by improving buying sentiment amid Mid-Winter Sales

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 86.7 in the week to 22 June, rebounding from last week’s fall to return to the level of two weeks ago despite the continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (80.4), and it is just above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria and Queensland, unchanged in New South Wales and Western Australia, and unchanged in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases modestly after the Albanese Government’s decisive election win

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

In May 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.9pts to 99.6 in the weeks after last month’s Federal Election, although it is still marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence had dropped by 2.9 points in the weeks after the previous Federal Election in late May 2022. Business Confidence is now 10.5pts below the long-term average of 110.1, although it is up 2.6pts from May 2024. Now 22.5% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2020, during the pandemic), while 36% (down 0.7ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 32.3% (down 3.7ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2015), while 23.5% (down 2.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,218 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.7, but net buying sentiment improves to strongest since April 2022 as End of Financial Year sales begin

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.7 in the week to 8 June; Consumer Confidence is now 9.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.0), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence increasing in New South Wales and Western Australia, but down slightly in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia – a reversal of last week’s results. Now 20% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since late March 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic), while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.6pts to 86.4 as Reserve Bank interest rate cut fails to increase confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 86.4 in the week to 1 June; however, Consumer Confidence is now 5.9 points above the same week a year ago (80.5), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence dropping in New South Wales and Western Australia, but up slightly in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 14% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 87.0 in the week the RBA cut interest rates to 3.85%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 87.0 in the week to 25 May; however, Consumer Confidence is now 6.8 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 0.5pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence fell in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but rose slightly in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped to 4.5% in mid-May – down from 4.8% for the month of April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.5% for the week of 12-18 May, down 0.3% points from the month of April, following two straight weekly declines in early May. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for April shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – a second consecutive monthly increase of 0.1% points from the nearly four-year low in February of 4.6%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of May 2024, and averaged 4.8%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,129 Australians aged 14+ in April 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week before the RBA met to consider interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week to 18 May; Consumer Confidence is now 6.8 points above the same week a year ago (82.0), and 2.4pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence rising in Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 14% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 24% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In April Australian unemployment increased to 11.2% driven primarily by more people joining the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

In April 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 176,000 to 1,780,000 (up 1%, to 11.2% of the workforce), with more people joining the workforce and overall employment dropping. The expansion in the workforce was the main driver of the increase in unemployment with 156,000 people joining the workforce, lifting the number of Australians in the workforce to 15,946,000 (69.4% of Australians aged 14+). Overall employment fell slightly by 20,000 to 14,166,000; the decrease was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 291,000 to 9,094,000), although part-time employment grew 271,000 to 5,072,000. In addition to the unemployed, 1.47 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 43,000 from March). In total 3.25 million Australians (20.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for March, but is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 88.3 after the Albanese Labor Government was easily re-elected

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 88.3 in the week to 11 May, after the Federal Government was re-elected with a two-party preferred swing of around 2.5%. Consumer Confidence is now 8.1 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows increases in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but decreases in South Australia and Queensland. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 9.3pts to 96.7 in April before weekend’s Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

In April 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was down 9.3pts to 96.7, in the weeks leading up to last weekend’s Federal Election. There was a similar trend three years ago when Business Confidence plunged by 12.8pts in the month leading up to the last Federal Election. Business Confidence is now 13.5pts below the long-term average of 110.2, although it is down a more modest 2.6pts from April 2024. Now 24.3% (down 6.6ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020, during the pandemic), while 36.7% (down 1.2ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 36% (down 8.8ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2019), while 25.6% (up 8.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2024). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,549 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED