ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week before the RBA met to consider interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week to 18 May; Consumer Confidence is now 6.8 points above the same week a year ago (82.0), and 2.4pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence rising in Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 14% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 24% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In April Australian unemployment increased to 11.2% driven primarily by more people joining the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

In April 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 176,000 to 1,780,000 (up 1%, to 11.2% of the workforce), with more people joining the workforce and overall employment dropping. The expansion in the workforce was the main driver of the increase in unemployment with 156,000 people joining the workforce, lifting the number of Australians in the workforce to 15,946,000 (69.4% of Australians aged 14+). Overall employment fell slightly by 20,000 to 14,166,000; the decrease was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 291,000 to 9,094,000), although part-time employment grew 271,000 to 5,072,000. In addition to the unemployed, 1.47 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 43,000 from March). In total 3.25 million Australians (20.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for March, but is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 88.3 after the Albanese Labor Government was easily re-elected

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 88.3 in the week to 11 May, after the Federal Government was re-elected with a two-party preferred swing of around 2.5%. Consumer Confidence is now 8.1 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows increases in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but decreases in South Australia and Queensland. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 9.3pts to 96.7 in April before weekend’s Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

In April 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was down 9.3pts to 96.7, in the weeks leading up to last weekend’s Federal Election. There was a similar trend three years ago when Business Confidence plunged by 12.8pts in the month leading up to the last Federal Election. Business Confidence is now 13.5pts below the long-term average of 110.2, although it is down a more modest 2.6pts from April 2024. Now 24.3% (down 6.6ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020, during the pandemic), while 36.7% (down 1.2ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 36% (down 8.8ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2019), while 25.6% (up 8.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2024). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,549 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week Australians voted in the Federal election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week to 4 May; it is important to note that the vast majority of interviewing for Consumer Confidence was completed before the result of the Federal Election was known on Saturday night. Consumer Confidence is now 7 points above the same week a year ago (80.5), and 1.3pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.2. Analysis by State shows increases around Australia, including in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but a slight decrease in Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (down 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2022). Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 5.1% in late April – up from 4.7% for the month of March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5.1% for the week of 21-27 April, up 0.4% points from the month of March, following two straight weekly increases in late April. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for March shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – an increase of 0.1% points from the nearly four-year low in February of only 4.6%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.3% since the start of 2024, and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,093 Australians aged 14+ in March 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.1pts to 83.4 to lowest for over six months in week before Federal election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 83.4 in the week to 27 April. Consumer Confidence is now 2.2 points above the same week a year ago (81.1), but 2.7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.1. Analysis by State shows mixed results; the weekly decrease was driven by falls in Victoria and Queensland, while Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in New South Wales and Western Australia, and increased slightly in South Australia. Now 15% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 47% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020, in the early days of the pandemic), while 30% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Insolvency wave builds despite hopes for rate relief

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 17 : 29-Apr-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that 3,393 businesses were declared insolvent in the March quarter; this is 27.6 per cent higher than the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, some 11,162 businesses have appointed insolvency specialists so far in the financial year, with the figures current as at 6 April. This represents an increase of 44.1 per cent year-on-year, and Jarvis Archer from Business Reset says insolvencies are on track to exceed 15,000 in 2024-25. Construction, hospitality and retailing are amongst the sectors that have recorded the biggest growth in insolvencies.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BUSINESS RESET PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 1.3pts to 85.5 as Australians enjoy Easter holidays

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 85.5 in the week to 20 April. Consumer Confidence is now 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (80.3), but it is 0.8pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with the weekly increase driven by rising confidence in Queensland and Western Australia; however, Consumer Confidence was unchanged in Victoria, and down slightly in New South Wales and South Australia. Now 16% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 29% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 26% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Home building falls as election stokes demand

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 17-Apr-25

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that new housing starts nationwide totalled 168,049 in calendar 2024, which is 1.8 per cent higher than previously. However, new home starts fell by 4.4 per cent to 41,911 in the final three months of the year, which was the largest quarterly decline since September 2023. Both major political parties recently announced election policies that are expected to boost demand for housing, but Paul Bloxham from HSBC says the focus should be on measures to boost housing supply.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD