ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.7pts to 89.8 after the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates for the first time since 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.7pts to 89.8 in the week to 23 February, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%. Consumer Confidence is now 6.6 points above the same week a year ago (83.2), and 2.7 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.1. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in all States, with the largest increase in Western Australia and increases of at least 3 points in the other States. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Looking forward, 37% (up 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2022), while 27% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since before the Black Friday sales period), while 44% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.6pts to 85.1 in the week before key Reserve Bank meeting on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.6pts to 85.1 in the week to 16 February, due to rising concerns about personal finances and the Australian economy over the next year. Consumer Confidence is now 2.3 points above the same week a year ago (82.8), but 1.6 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows a mixed result, with decreases in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, virtually unchanged in New South Wales, and increasing in Queensland. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 31% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since before the Black Friday sales period), while 45% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Long wait for living standards to recover

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Original article by Jack Quail, Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Feb-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia now expects growth in real household disposable income of just 3.1 per cent in the year to June; it had previously forecast growth of 3.9 per cent for this metric, which is regarded as a proxy for living standards. The central bank estimates that real household disposable income per capita is about one per cent lower than prior to the pandemic. Meanwhile, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says the federal government’s own forecasts show that the nation’s living standards will not return to the levels prior to the last election until 2030.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

In January Australian unemployment increased to 10.1% due to a growing workforce with not all new entrants finding jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-25

In January 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 78,000 to 1,620,000 (up 0.4% to 10.1% of the workforce) with more people looking for both part-time and full-time work. The Australian workforce increased by 297,000 to a record high of 16,115,000 with unemployment up 78,000 to 1,620,000 and employment up 219,000 to 14,495,000. The increase in unemployment was driven by rises in people looking for part-time work (up 36,000 to 837,000), and people looking for full-time work (up 42,000 to 783,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.81 million Australians (11.3% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 137,000 from December – a new record high level of under-employment. In total 3.43 million Australians (21.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January – the highest combined figure since June 2020.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Small business in recession as public service thrives

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Original article by Millie Muroi
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 18-Feb-25

Deputy Opposition leader Sussan Ley says the number of small businesses that employ people in Australia has fallen from around 953,000 to 922,000 since Labor won the federal election in May 2022. Ley adds that the nation appears to experiencing a small business recession, while the federal government has hired about one permanent public servant for every small business that is collapsing. The Coalition has flagged public service cutbacks if it wins the upcoming election, with Labor having hired an additional 36,000 public servants during its first term in office.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 2.3pts in January to 108.2 as prospect of interest rate cuts in 2025 increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

In January 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 108.2 (up 2.3pts from December 2024), as the prospects of interest rate cuts in the next few months increased. Business Confidence is just 2.1pts below the long-term average of 110.3, although it is up 15pts from January 2024. Business Confidence has also now had a positive rating above 100 for four months in a row – the first time this has happened since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 58.6% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 35.8% (down 1.8ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for three years since February 2022). Meanwhile, 43.7% (up 3.2ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 15.1% (down 6ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2021). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,594 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.8pts to 86.7 in early February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 86.7 in the week to 9 February, with rising concerns about the Australian economy driving the decline. Consumer Confidence is now 4.1 points above the same week a year ago (82.6), and just 0.2 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, while the index increased sharply in Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since July 2024), while 48% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 2.5pts to 88.5 after the long weekend – its highest since May 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.5pts to 88.5 in the week to 2 February. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (83.8), and 1.5 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.0. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia while the index was virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since July 2024), while 27% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 27% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation fall fuels election fight

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Original article by Greg Brown, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Jan-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says a ‘soft landing’ for the Australian economy is becoming "more and more likely" following the release of CPI data for the December quarter. The headline inflation rate fell 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent in the year to December; the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation eased to 3.2 per cent, below the central bank’s own expectations of 3.4 per cent. Three of Australia’s four major banks now expect an official interest cut in February. However, Warren Hogan from Judo Bank says the economic case for a rate cut is very weak; he notes amongst other things that core inflation remain above the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, while the cost-of-living crisis is still a major issue for many Australians.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.0 for Australia Day long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.0 in the week to 26 January. Consumer Confidence is now 3.5 points above the same week a year ago (82.5), and 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria, but declines elsewhere in Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ