Trump’s battlers enjoy rapid pay rises

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 15-Mar-19

Goldman Sachs estimates that growth in wages across the US economy is currently around 3.4 per cent, and 4.4 per cent in sectors with low wages. The investment bank’s research also shows that wages for workers in the bottom 50 per cent of the US wage distribution is rising by around four per cent a year, compared with about two per cent for those in the top half. The higher growth in low-income wages gained pace from mid-2018, in the wake of the Trump administration’s company tax cuts package. In contrast, the ACTU is advocating a large increase in the minimum wage to address the income gap.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Inflation data will be key to whether Fed can hike

Original article by Brian Chappatta
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 7-Aug-17

New data shows that a higher-than-expected 209,000 jobs were created in the US during July, while the unemployment rate was at a 16-year low. However, the upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to influence the timing of any change in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Bill Gross of the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund says the central bank is unlikely to increase short-term interest rates until the core inflation rate rises to its target of two per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, TD SECURITIES, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Gary Morgan’s comment on October unemployment: Donald Trump’s victory in US Presidential race shows electors believe real unemployment is higher than official statistics suggest

Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-16

US President-elect Donald Trump consistently stated during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was well over 20% or even 25% rather than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) U3 figure – now at 4.9% for October 2016. In May Trump stated: "We have tremendous deficits. Don’t believe the 5 per cent. The real [unemployment] number is 20 per cent. The United States is dying from within, its domestic infrastructure is crumbling and successive administrations have wasted $5 trillion in the Middle East instead of using the money to create jobs and prosperity at home." Trump’s successful candidacy shows that many Americans agree with the new President that the official unemployment figures are considerably under-stated. There is a clear lesson for Australian politicians in Trump’s success.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, UNITED STATES. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Markets skittish as Brexit vote looms

Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 20-Jun-16

The UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union is expected to be a key focus for Australian investors in the week beginning 20 June 2016. However, Alex Holmes of Capital Economics says the global economy is unlikely to be significantly affected in the long-term if the UK votes to leave the EU. Investors will also be awaiting the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting, as well as US economic data such as unemployment claims and oil inventories.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. SENATE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING AND URBAN AFFAIRS, UNITED STATES. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES, RESERVE BANK OF INDIA, INDIA. PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE

National accounts, US data to steer market sentiment

Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 30-May-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain 23 points when trading resumes on 30 May 2016, after the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed above 5,400 in the previous trading session. Local economic figures to be released in the coming week includes current account and GDP data for the March quarter, while investors will also be awaiting the release of key US economic indicators, including the latest wages and consumer confidence data.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, SECURITIES INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION

Fed leaves rates on hold, preps for potential December lift

Original article by
The Age – Page: Online : 29-Oct-15

The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting in late October 2015 has resulted in US interest rates being left unchanged. The central bank’s monetary policy statement noted that the US economy is expanding at a "moderate pace", while jobs growth has slowed. The statement omitted the previous month’s reference to the potential impact of global risks on the US economy. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich says a rate cut remains possible in December.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC

Gold stocks take off after gloomy report on US jobs

Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 6-Oct-15

Data showing that a lower-than-expected 142,000 jobs were created in the US during September 2015 has prompted a rally in the spot price of gold. It rose by 2.2 per cent to $US1,136 per ounce on 2 October, and in turn bolstered support for Australian-listed gold producers. Northern Star Resources rose by 5.9 per cent to a record $A2.85 on 5 October, while Newcrest Mining was 9.5 per cent higher at $A13.80. The jobs data has dampened expectations of a US interest rate rise in the near-term.

CORPORATES
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX BDR, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, IG MARKETS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD INDEX, BANK OF JAPAN, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, SUMITOMO GLOBAL RESEARCH