ECONOMISTS – AUSTRALIA

RBA budget day cut ‘close’

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 4-Apr-16

The consensus of economists polled by Fairfax Media is for the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates unchanged on 5 April 2016. However, about 25 per cent of the 12 economists expect the cash rate to be reduced on 3 May, when the Federal Government will also hand down the Budget. Some economists suggest that the recent rise in the value of the Australian dollar will prompt a rate cut.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Higher dollar not enough to kill RBA’s chill

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Feb-16

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at two per cent on 1 March 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is among the economists who expect an interest rate cut at some point in 2016. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe does not expect the central bank to resume "jawboning" the Australian dollar in its monetary policy statement, despite its recent rise to a seven-week high.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Rate cut in near future seen as unlikely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-16

The general consensus of Australian economists is that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged in February 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP is the only economist out of 14 who believes that recent financial market volatility could result in an interest rate cut. He adds that the upcoming release of inflation data for the December 2015 quarter is likely to be the deciding factor. Meanwhile, the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan expects the cash rate to be cut in May and August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, BANK OF CANADA, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Lowest rate since ’60s

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 10-Apr-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points to two per cent in May 2015. The cash rate is already at its lowest level in five decades, but economists maintain that further rate cuts can help to stimulate the economy. The Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Workman notes that the low level of confidence is a key issue for the economy, while Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for more rate cuts beyond May

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Economists stumped by RBA’s moves

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Apr-15

None of the economists polled by Bloomberg News have been accurate in their forecasts for the monetary policy decisions of all three Reserve Bank of Australia board meetings so far in 2015. Several economists have, however, successfully predicted the outcome of two interest rate decisions, while five have failed to predict any. Meanwhile, the financial market’s forecasts have been right on one occasion in 2015

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, TD SECURITIES, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF ENGLAND, LABOUR PARTY (GREAT BRITAIN)

Untreated trauma costs $9.1b a year: report

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Original article by Rachel Browne
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 5 : 4-Feb-15

A new study by Pegasus Economics states that the annual loss to the Australian economy stemming from unresolved childhood trauma after sexual abuse is $A9.1bn. The four issues of alcohol abuse, mental illness, obesity, and suicide or attempted suicide were looked at in the research, commissioned by the Adults Surviving Child Abuse lobby group for its 2015 Budget submission to the Federal Government. Meanwhile the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse estimates the cost over a decade of a redress scheme for victims at $A4.3bn

CORPORATES
ADULTS SURVIVING CHILD ABUSE, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSES TO CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE, PEGASUS ECONOMICS

US80c to the dollar is ‘fair value’ for RBA

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 5-Dec-14

The Australian dollar reached a new 4.5-year low of $US0.8389 on 4 December 2014. Economists are divided regarding what constitutes fair value for the currency. Michael Workman of the Commonwealth Bank believes that a range of $US0.80 to $US0.85 is appropriate for the dollar at present. However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Saul Eslake suggests that fair value would be below $US0.80

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Westpac breaks ranks to tip RBA will cut rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 5-Dec-14

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects official interest rates to be reduced in both February and March 2015, citing factors such as the latest GDP data and the high Australian dollar. National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank economists have indicated that they may revise their forecasts for interest rates to remain on hold until late 2015. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have already forecast that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate in 2015

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Company tax uncompetitive

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Original article by Mark Ludlow, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Aug-14

The Australian Government plans a 1.5 per cent reduction in the 30 per cent corporate tax rate by the end of 2014-15. However, economist John Edwards has called for a more aggressive reduction in the corporate tax rate in order to make the nation more competitive internationally. Switzerland’s company tax rate of just 18 per cent was a key factor in CSL’s decision to invest $A500m in a new factory in that country rather than Australia

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20)