ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

Steph Hunt (Melbourne) and Aaron Violi (Casey) are the only two Liberals to achieve a primary vote swing of +4%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-25

The Liberal Party suffered a crushing defeat at the Federal Election held earlier this month, and the recriminations continue under new leader Sussan Ley. However, there were some bright spots for the party with 20 Liberal/LNP candidates achieving a positive primary vote swing, led by Liberal candidate for Melbourne, Steph Hunt, who achieved a primary vote swing of +4.6% from 2022, and Liberal MP from Casey (Victoria), Aaron Violi, with a primary vote swing of +4.4%. Other notable performances included Simmone Cottom with a primary vote swing of +3.9% in the Victorian seat of Hawke, Benson Saulo with a swing of +3.5% in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, Tim Beddoe with a swing of +3.3% in the western Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong and re-elected Liberal MP Tim Wilson reclaiming his seat on Melbourne’s bayside with a primary vote swing of +3.1%. Of the 20 Liberal/LNP candidates to achieve a positive primary vote swing in their electorate, 15 were in Victoria, three were in New South Wales and two were in Queensland.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

‘Extreme, divisive politics’: Greens’ near-total wipe-out

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Original article by Clare Armstrong
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 8-May-25

Sky News and the ABC have both declared that Labor’s Sarah Witty has won the seat of Melbourne, which Greens leader Adam Bandt has held since 2010. However, a Greens spokeswoman has stated that the minor party has yet not conceded defeat in the previously safe seat, arguing that "many thousands of votes" have not yet been counted. The Greens are hopeful that more than 15,000 absentee and declaration votes will favour Bandt. Commenting on Bandt’s defeat, a Labor source said "he’ll blame Labor, he’ll blame the Liberals, he’ll blame voters, but he’ll never blame himself". The Greens went into the federal election with four MPs in the lower house, but Stephen Bates and Max Chandler-Mather have also lost their seats and Elizabeth Warren-Brown’s seat of Ryan in Queensland is in doubt. Greens senators Sarah Hanson-Young and Mehreen Faruqi are believed to be the frontrunners to succeed Bandt.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Liberal MPs urge unity leadership ticket as Abbott questions conviction

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 5 : 8-May-25

Liberal Party insiders contend that an increasingly acrimonious leadership contest is undermining efforts to rebuild in the wake of Saturday’s election rout. Sussan Ley, Dan Tehan and Angus Taylor are expected to be in contention to succeed Peter Dutton as Opposition leader. Supporters of Ley have rejected claims that she has offered prime shadow cabinet portfolios in exchange for votes in a leadership ballot. A number of Liberal MPs have called for Ley and Tehan to run on a ‘unity ticket’, with some suggesting that the latter would garner enough support to be deputy leader but not enough to take the top job. Meanwhile, former prime minister Tony Abbott says the Liberals’ leadership has lacked "courage and conviction" in recent times.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Government debt could hit $1trn by September

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 8-May-25

Data from the Australian Office of Financial Management shows that the federal government’s gross debt is currently about $929bn. Micaela Fuchila, the chief economist at investment bank Jarden, has forecast that the nation’s gross debt will reach $1trn in either September or October of this year. The Treasury in turn expects the government’s net debt – which excludes the value of financial assets such as the Future Fund – to reach $556bn by June. S&P Global recently warned that Australia’s coveted AAA credit rating may be at risk if federal election spending promises are funded via debt rather than revenue or cost savings.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, JARDEN AND COMPANY, S&P GLOBAL INCORPORATED

Liberals revolt over policy failures

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-25

Sources within the Liberal Party have indicated that many of its policies were either not released or delayed for so long that they had no impact on the federal election. They include policies in key areas such as defence, taxation, education, health and the environment. Meanwhile, Sussan Ley is now widely regarded as the frontrunner to replace Peter Dutton as Opposition leader; advocates for Ley contend that she could boost support among female voters who have become disillusioned with the Liberal Party.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Albanese to dole out an extra ministry to the Left after landslide win

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Original article by David Crary, James Massola
The Age – Page: Online : 7-May-25

Labor’s expanded caucus is set to meet on Friday to decide which MPs and senators will be in the new ministry, although Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will allocate portfolios next week. Labor’s left faction is set to gain an additional seat in the ministry after gaining about 12 seats in the federal election, while the Victorian Right faction will also push for increased representation in the ministry. The Left faction is set to outnumber the Right in Labor’s caucus, which is set to increase to at least 110, compared with 103 before the election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Poll result opens door for housing market

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 7-May-25

Real estate agents note that there has been an increase in the number of homes listed for sale in the last week. BresicWhitney CEO Thomas McGlynn expects this momentum to continue in the next week or so, after Labor secured majority government at the federal election on Saturday. Melbourne-based buyers’ agent Cate Bakos in turn says enquiries from prospective home buyers have also increased in the wake of the election, while Eliza Owen from Cotality says first-home buyers will return to the market when election policies that target them start to be implemented.

CORPORATES
BRESIC WHITNEY ESTATE AGENTS PTY LTD, COTALITY

$250bn GDP forgone on weaker growth

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Apr-25

Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2 per cent a year over the last decade. The Coalition has committed to a new productivity growth target of 1.5 per cent a year if it wins the election on Saturday. In contrast, Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2 per cent over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250bn higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have been $50bn higher.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Albanese’s budget deficit lie challenged

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Apr-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is continuing to attract scrutiny over his claims regarding the size of the budget deficit that Labor inherited in May 2022. Albanese recently responded to a report from S&P Global on the future of Australia’s triple-A credit rating by stating that the Coalition had left Labor with a $78bn deficit, which it subsequently turned into a $22bn surplus. However, the $78bn deficit was merely a Treasury forecast during the 2022 election campaign, and the final budget outcome for 2021-22 was a deficit of just $32bn. The surplus of $22bn was in fact for 2022-23, which was Labor’s first full financial year in office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

The Final Showdown: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s last debate before the Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

On Sunday night Channel Seven hosted the final Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Roy Morgan provided the studio audience of ‘undecided voters’ to assess both leaders on key questions. The results were conclusively in favour of Albanese, who won on five out of 7 questions – and overall. Importantly, his biggest win was on the Cost of Living – 65% of the undecided voters agreed with Albanese, compared to only 16% for Dutton. The Opposition Leader performed well on two issues, winning on the issue of Defence (Dutton on 43%, just ahead of Albanese on 37%) and a clear win on Indigenous Affairs (Dutton on 46% compared to Albanese on 27%). Overall though, the verdict was clear; Albanese easily won the debate, attracting 50% support of the undecided voters compared to only 25% who said Dutton won the debate; a further 25% of the audience was still undecided. The strong result for Albanese in this debate augurs well for the Government as we head towards election day on Saturday.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA