ELECTIONS – UNITED STATES

TPP dead but free-trade deal still on

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 5 : 11-Nov-16

Australia’s Trade Minister Steve Ciobo has acknowledged that the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership is unlikely to proceed after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Kim Beazley, Australia’s former ambassador to Washington, also says Trump’s victory has assured the TPP’s demise, but he stresses the need for Australia to retain strong trade ties, particularly with Asia. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull does not expect the Trump presidency to have any effect on the Australia-US free-trade agreement, which came into effect in 2005.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES)

You’re fired: result shows the limits of the forecasters

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 11-Nov-16

Most public opinion polls had pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election. Principal Global Investors’ Mark Farrington likens polling methods to the trading models used in financial market, noting that they both rely on historical predictions. In the case of Donald Trump’s election victory, and the Brexit vote earlier in 2016, traditional models did not reflect the forces that influenced voting trends. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied and bond yields rose in response to Trump’s election victory.

CORPORATES
PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, UBS O’CONNOR LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Spending, tax cuts to buoy firms with US exposure

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Andrew White, Eli Greenblat, Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 26 : 11-Nov-16

Australian-listed companies with a significant presence in the US do not expect the election of Donald Trump as president to have much impact on their business. Brambles CEO Tom Gorman is upbeat about the logistics group’s outlook, noting that its US customers are primarily in sectors that are not affected by political and economic cycles. Orora CEO Nigel Garrard says the packaging group is optimistic about the economic impact of Trump’s policies on corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

CORPORATES
BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, EVANS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, BERINGER WINE ESTATES HOLDINGS INCORPORATED, DIAGEO PLC, NORTH STAR STEEL, PRATT INDUSTRIES (USA) INCORPORATED, OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC

Shock win ‘will boost local real estate sales’

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 4 : 10-Nov-16

Donald Trump’s US presidential victory is likely to result in an interest rate rise in the US, increasing the likelihood of a cut in Australia’s 1.5 per cent official cash rate. LJ Hooker’s head of research Matthew Tiller says foreign investors will be less willing to invest in US property, and Chinese buyers in particular are likely to switch to Australia.

CORPORATES
LJ HOOKER (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

TPP deal ‘doomed’ as US set to retreat

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 16 : 10-Nov-16

Australia’s former foreign minister Bob Carr does not expect the Trans-Pacific Partnership to proceed under US President Donald Trump. He adds that Congress is unlikely to ratify the 12-nation trade deal during the final months of Barack Obama’s presidency, while Trump could potentially also abandon some existing international treaties. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is optimistic that the Obama administration will ratify the TPP, although she notes that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is being negotiated in Asia and would provide an alternative to the TPP.

CORPORATES
TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Wave of uncertainty wipes $30bn

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

The Australian dollar and the domestic sharemarket fell sharply on 9 November 2016, in response to the election of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day low of 5,052.1 before closing down 1.9 per cent at 5156.6. In the US, S&P 500 futures initially fell by more than five per cent, which resulted in a temporary suspension of trading. Some analysts expect "risk-off" trading to be sustained for some time, while the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in December appears to have diminished. The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.758 in local trading, and Westpac’s Robert Rennie says it could fall below $US0.74 in the near-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Buckle up for a day of unusual volatility

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Original article by David Rogers, Andrew White, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 9-Nov-16

The US presidential election is set to dominate financial market trading on 9 November 2016. Voting trends will have emerged by the time the Australian sharemarket opens, while market volatility can be expected as exit polls are released over the course of the local trading day. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index has returned to its long-term average of 19, which suggests that financial markets do not anticipate that Donald Trump will win.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, VOTECASTR, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MONASH UNIVERSITY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, AUSDRILL LIMITED – ASX ASL

Clinton on edge of victory

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 13 : 9-Nov-16

Sharemarkets rallied on 8 November 2016, amid growing expectations that Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton will win the US presidential election. Public opinion polls suggest that Clinton will defeat Republican Party rival Donald Trump, although the result is likely to be very close. However, Trump remained confident of victory as he visited several states on the last day of campaigning for the election. An estimated 40 million Americans had voted prior to election day.

CORPORATES
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS, REAL CLEAR POLITICS

Clinton victory set to unleash a ‘wave of cash’ into global markets

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Original article by David Rogers, Glenda Korporaal, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket rallied on 7 November 2016, after a new FBI probe cleared US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over the use of a private email server. AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi says investors are likely to reallocate cash holdings to higher-risk assets if Clinton wins the election. Meanwhile, Paul Donovan of UBS has warned that world trade and global capital flows could be disrupted if Donald Trump becomes president.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NZSX-50 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Trump’s surge spooks markets

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Original article by Cameron Stewart, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 10 : 3-Nov-16

Sharemarkets in Australia and Asia were sold down on 2 November 2016, after an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that US presidential candidate Donald Trump now has a one percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The RealClear Politics average of polls also shows that Trump has significantly narrowed Clinton’s lead in the last week. Westpac economists have warned that a Trump victory could have a bigger impact on global financial markets than the UK’s Brexit referendum.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)