FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES – AUSTRALIA

Faltering dollar unlikely to sway Reserve Bank rates call

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 19 : 22-Jan-25

The Australian dollar fell sharply on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump signalled that a tariff of 25 per cent could be imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico from the start of February. However, AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the recent downturn in the value of the currency is unlikely to influence the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision in February. Oliver contends that quarterly inflation data to be released in late January will be the key factor that the central bank will take into account.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Aussie to drop materially in 2025, CBA warns

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

The Commonwealth Bank is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar in 2025, amid fears of a trade war when US president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. The currency has fallen by 7.3 per cent since its most recent peak in September; it was fetching $US0.6470 on Tuesday, having reached a low of $US0.6432 last week. The Commonwealth Bank now expects the currency to fall to $US0.61 by September, but head of international equities Joseph Capurso says it could fall much further and faster if the trade war is more disruptive than anticipated.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Surging dollar harming export earnings

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 4-Jun-20

The Australian dollar peaked at a five-month high of $US0.6983 in local trading on 3 June, having fallen to an 18-year low of $US0.551 earlier in 2020. The currency has averaged $US0.648 so far in the first half of the calendar year, compared with an average of around $US0.68 in the second half of 2019. The dollar’s recent rebound has boosted offshore interest in Australian equities, although it will weigh on the nation’s export earnings.

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Flash crash pushes Aussie to an 11-year low

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 10-Mar-20

The Australian dollar fell by 4.6 per cent to an intra-day low of $US0.6312 during a 20-minute period in local trading on 9 March. It was the currency’s lowest level since early March 2009, as growing concern about the coronavirus weighed on financial markets. Sean Callow of Westpac says the sell-off appears to have been driven by Japanese investors exiting their Australian dollar positions, with the ‘flash crash’ coinciding with a rally in the yen against the greenback. The Australian dollar rebounded to around $US0.6550 late in the local trading session.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

$A catches coronavirus, plummets to 11-year low

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Original article by Tom Richardson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 3-Mar-20

The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.654 in local trading on 2 March, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting. Financial markets have priced in a near-97 per cent chance that the central bank will reduce the cash rate on 3 March, and a 67 per cent chance of a second rate cut in May. Morgan Stanley expects the cash rate to remain on hold until April, giving the RBA time to assess GDP data to be released on 4 March. The Commonwealth Bank says the economic impact of the coronavirus could prompt the Australian dollar to fall further in coming days.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Virus fears, rate uncertainty push $A to worst January since 2015

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 3-Feb-20

The Australian dollar has shed 4.7 per cent so far in 2020, and factors such as the coronavirus and the prospect of further interest rate cuts could see the currency test a new post-global financial crisis low. The Reserve Bank of Australia is now widely tipped to reduce the cash rate in April, although Prashant Newnaha of TD Securities says a rate cut in March is still possible. The RBA is expected to downgrade its economic growth forecasts on 7 February, and National Australia Bank economist Kaixin Owyong says this means that further rate cuts will be necessary.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, TD SECURITIES, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Recovery in doubt as Aussie dollar surges

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 1-Nov-19

The Australian dollar reached a three-month high of $US0.693 in local trading on 31 October, in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut in 2019. Financial markets have in turn downgraded the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing the cash rate again before the end of the year. The Australian dollar gained 3.3 per cent in October, including a gain of 1.6 per cent in the last five trading sessions. RBA board member Ian Harper argues that a strong currency is not desirable at present, given weak economic growth and less than full employment.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Surplus may signal new era for dollar

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 4-Sep-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s Richard Grace says the current account is unlikely to remain in surplus, citing the level of the nation’s net income deficit. However, he notes that the net income deficit – which is currently 3.4 per cent of GDP – will improve as superannuation funds increase their offshore holdings. Grace adds that factors such as a gradual reduction in the net income deficit and a structural improvement in the trade balance are likely to boost the Australian dollar over the longer-term.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, EXANTE DATA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Aviva tips weaker dollar, eyes global recession

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 2-Sep-19

Aviva Investors’ chief economist Michael Grady is bearish about the Australian dollar, saying that it could fall to the low $US0.60s level by the end of 2019. He stresses that the potential slump in the currency’s value is not solely due to the outlook for the Chinese economy, noting amongst other things that the link between the dollar and the terms of trade has broken down. Grady adds that the trade war with the US could reduce China’s economic growth by a further 1-1.25 per cent, while he says there is an even chance of a global recession before the end of 2019.

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AVIVA INVESTORS

RBA’s Lowe faces grilling over cheap money

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe will appear before a parliamentary committee on 9 August. His testimony is likely to attract increased scrutiny after the central bank’s New Zealand counterpart reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points. The House of Representatives’ economics committee is chaired by Liberal MP Tim Wilson. He says the RBA’s dual rate cuts in June and July and how it expects to eventually begin tightening monetary policy when household debt is rising are among the issues that will come under scrutiny.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA