Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 10-Mar-20
The Australian dollar fell by 4.6 per cent to an intra-day low of $US0.6312 during a 20-minute period in local trading on 9 March. It was the currency’s lowest level since early March 2009, as growing concern about the coronavirus weighed on financial markets. Sean Callow of Westpac says the sell-off appears to have been driven by Japanese investors exiting their Australian dollar positions, with the ‘flash crash’ coinciding with a rally in the yen against the greenback. The Australian dollar rebounded to around $US0.6550 late in the local trading session.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC
Original article by Tom Richardson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 3-Mar-20
The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.654 in local trading on 2 March, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting. Financial markets have priced in a near-97 per cent chance that the central bank will reduce the cash rate on 3 March, and a 67 per cent chance of a second rate cut in May. Morgan Stanley expects the cash rate to remain on hold until April, giving the RBA time to assess GDP data to be released on 4 March. The Commonwealth Bank says the economic impact of the coronavirus could prompt the Australian dollar to fall further in coming days.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA
Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 3-Feb-20
The Australian dollar has shed 4.7 per cent so far in 2020, and factors such as the coronavirus and the prospect of further interest rate cuts could see the currency test a new post-global financial crisis low. The Reserve Bank of Australia is now widely tipped to reduce the cash rate in April, although Prashant Newnaha of TD Securities says a rate cut in March is still possible. The RBA is expected to downgrade its economic growth forecasts on 7 February, and National Australia Bank economist Kaixin Owyong says this means that further rate cuts will be necessary.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, TD SECURITIES, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB
Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 1-Nov-19
The Australian dollar reached a three-month high of $US0.693 in local trading on 31 October, in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut in 2019. Financial markets have in turn downgraded the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing the cash rate again before the end of the year. The Australian dollar gained 3.3 per cent in October, including a gain of 1.6 per cent in the last five trading sessions. RBA board member Ian Harper argues that a strong currency is not desirable at present, given weak economic growth and less than full employment.
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Original article by Patrick Commins, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 4-Sep-19
The Commonwealth Bank’s Richard Grace says the current account is unlikely to remain in surplus, citing the level of the nation’s net income deficit. However, he notes that the net income deficit – which is currently 3.4 per cent of GDP – will improve as superannuation funds increase their offshore holdings. Grace adds that factors such as a gradual reduction in the net income deficit and a structural improvement in the trade balance are likely to boost the Australian dollar over the longer-term.
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, EXANTE DATA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 2-Sep-19
Aviva Investors’ chief economist Michael Grady is bearish about the Australian dollar, saying that it could fall to the low $US0.60s level by the end of 2019. He stresses that the potential slump in the currency’s value is not solely due to the outlook for the Chinese economy, noting amongst other things that the link between the dollar and the terms of trade has broken down. Grady adds that the trade war with the US could reduce China’s economic growth by a further 1-1.25 per cent, while he says there is an even chance of a global recession before the end of 2019.
Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Aug-19
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe will appear before a parliamentary committee on 9 August. His testimony is likely to attract increased scrutiny after the central bank’s New Zealand counterpart reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points. The House of Representatives’ economics committee is chaired by Liberal MP Tim Wilson. He says the RBA’s dual rate cuts in June and July and how it expects to eventually begin tightening monetary policy when household debt is rising are among the issues that will come under scrutiny.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 8-Aug-19
The Australian dollar reached a 10-year low of $US0.6680 in local trading on 7 August, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points to 1 per cent. Central bank governor Adrian Orr has not ruled out the prospect of negative interest rates or measures such as quantitative easing. The RBNZ’s move is likely to strengthen the case for further monetary policy easing in Australia before the end of 2019.
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY
Original article by Vesna Poljak, Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 31 : 2-Aug-19
Andrew Canobi of Franklin Templeton says the US Federal Reserve is still widely tipped to announce two further interest rate cuts over the next year. However, he says the central bank is likely to pursue less aggressive monetary policy easing than had been recently forecast, after chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the rate cut on 1 August will not be the start of "a long series of rate cuts". The more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it should reduce any upward pressure on the Australian dollar.
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 26-Mar-19
The bearish sentiment that saw the S&P/ASX 200 fall to a three-month low on 25 March also weighed on the local bond market, with the yield on Australian 10-year bonds reaching a record low of 1.756 per cent. Growing concern about the outlook for the global economy also prompted a decline in the yield on US government bonds, with the yield curve inverting for the first time since 2007. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar reached an low of $US0.7066 in local trading, and Steven Miller Grant Samuel Funds Management expects it to fall further.
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, GRANT SAMUEL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO