FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES – AUSTRALIA

Stoked US pushes rates up, $A down

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Original article by John Kehoe, Jacob Greber, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 5-Oct-18

The Australian dollar fell to a 2.5 year low of $US0.7078 on 4 October, with analysts tipping it could soon fall to below $US0.70 on the back of rising US interest rates. A combination of higher oil prices and a falling Australian dollar could push petrol prices up above $2 per litre, although a weaker dollar could help to make Australian exports more competitive and lead to reduced demand for more expensive imports. Fitch Solutions Macro Research suggested a rise in oil prices could trigger inflation, which could force the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates sooner than expected.

CORPORATES
FITCH AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Susceptible $A tipped to fall to US70c

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 10-Jul-18

Some economists are bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar, which has traded at close to a 12-month low since mid-June. Stephen Roberts of Laminar Capital expects the currency to be trading at $US0.70 at the end of 2018, citing the prospect of a growing gap between official interest rates in Australia and the US. Elliot Clarke of Westpac in turn expects the Australian dollar to test the $US0.70 level in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
LAMINAR CAPITAL, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Digital cash not on RBA agenda

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Original article by David Swan
The Australian – Page: 29 : 27-Jun-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of payments policy has downplayed the prospect that the central bank will introduce a digital version of the Australian dollar. Tony Richard says the RBA does not believe that there would be sufficient demand for a digital currency at present. He adds that a digital currency would have implications for the RBA’s financial stability mandate and the structure of the financial sector. Several fintech companies advocated the introduction of a digital Australian dollar in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FINTECH AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AGRIDIGITAL, OTHERA, AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED

Investors run for cover amid trade tension

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 20-Jun-18

The Australian dollar has fallen to a 13-month low amid renewed concerns about a US-China trade war. The local bourse eased slightly on 19 June but Asian markets fell sharply, with China’s Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index shedding 3.8 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively. A move by US President Donald Trump to look at imposing tariffs on more Chinese products prompted China to warn that it would respond in kind, and Louis Kuijis of Oxford Economics says such a move would affect economic growth in China, the US and globally.

CORPORATES
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, SHENZHEN COMPOSITE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NASDAQ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Aussie dollar vulnerable to further EM turmoil

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 28-May-18

The Australian dollar has shed three per cent against its US counterpart so far in 2018. Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank expects the currency to trade within a range of $US0.75 to $US0.77 for the rest of the year. However, he warns that sustained volatility in emerging markets is a potential risk for the Australian dollar. Catril adds that this risk should remain relatively low unless the volatility extends beyond countries such as Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLOOMBERG LP

Bond proxies and dollar feel pinch as US yields surge to seven-year high

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 17-May-18

The Australian dollar has fallen below $US0.75 after the yield on US 10-year government bonds peaked at 3.09 per cent, the highest level in seven years. This in turn prompted a sell-off of Australian-listed bond proxy stocks on 16 May, despite the local sharemarket posting a slight gain for the day. Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects global bond yields to rise further, and notes that Australian government bonds have a lower risk profile at present due to factors such as the nation’s low official interest rates.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, VANGUARD INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, APA GROUP – ASX APA, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, DEXUS RENTS TRUST, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT

Stronger $A a bump for RBA rate hike

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Original article by Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 29-Jan-18

The Australian dollar rose above $US0.81 in offshore trading on the weekend of 27-28 January, extending its gains since early December to eight per cent. Factors such as a falling US dollar and strengthening commodity prices have contributed to the Australian currency’s recent rally. However, the dollar’s rise may affect the timing of any change in official interest rates. Meanwhile, Citigroup expects the currency to be trading at around its current level at the end of 2018, although Westpac anticipates a fall of around $US0.09.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Resurgent Aussie dollar heads back above US80c as commodity prices boom

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 16-Jan-18

The Australian dollar rose above $US0.79 in local trading on 15 January, and National Australia Bank estimates that the currency’s fair value in the near-term is $US0.80. Ray ­Attrill of NAB says the currency could reach its 2017 peak of $US0.8125 unless the US dollar rebounds, while Sean Callow of Westpac is also upbeat about the currency’s near-term outlook. Aside from US dollar weakness, the Australian dollar has benefited from a rally in the price of key commodities over the last month.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IG MARKETS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Rising dollar a threat to economy: RBA

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 27 : 2-Aug-17

The Reserve Bank still expects GDP growth to return to three per cent and inflation to rise to within its target range. However, these forecasts are being hindered by the continued strength of the Australian dollar, which has been noted by central bank governor Philip Lowe. He is upbeat about the outlook for the labour market, forecasting that the unemployment rate will ease in the next several years. Meanwhile, Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects the cash rate to remain on hold until at least late 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

RBA rate hike hopes fade as Aussie bumps past US80c

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 28-Jul-17

The Australian dollar reached a new two-year high of US0.8043 during intra-day trading on 27 July, compared with $US0.76 at the start of the month. The currency rallied after the US Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold, and Charlie Jamieson of Jamieson Coote Bonds says a US rate rise in September is looking increasingly unlikely, while a rise in Australia’s cash rate will also be off the agenda in the near-term. Meanwhile, Westpac estimates that the Australian dollar’s fair value is around $US0.76 to $US0.77.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA