FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES – AUSTRALIA

Surging dollar threatens post-boom momentum as it tests US80c

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 27 : 26-Jul-17

The Australian dollar has gained 3.5 per cent so far in July, and it remains close to a two-year high. The currency has risen by about 10 per cent in the year to date, and its trade-weighted index has risen by five per cent. The Australian dollar has benefited from factors such as a downturn in the value of its US counterpart and growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates in 2018. Greg Gibbs of Amplifying Global FX Capital says a further sharp fall in the value of the US dollar is possible given the US economic outlook.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMPLIFYING GLOBAL FX CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

As good as it gets for the Australian dollar?

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 25-Jul-17

A speech by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on 26 July is likely to be closely scrutinised after recent commentary on a neutral interest rate target prompted the Australian dollar to rally. The currency peaked at a two-year high in response, although it retreated after deputy governor Guy Debelle downplayed the discussions about neutral rates. Paul Dales of Capital Economics expects the dollar to come under downward pressure, citing factors such as the outlook for interest rates and the iron ore price.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AXITRADER PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Job surge adds to dollar’s strength

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 21-Jul-17

The Australian dollar peaked at a two-year high of $US0.7989 in local trading on 20 July, in response to data showing that 62,000 full-time jobs were created in June. The economy added a net 14,000 jobs, due to a sharp fall in part-time positions, and the unemployment rate was steady at 5.6 per cent. Capital Economics’ Katie Hickie says the Reserve Bank is likely to leave official interest rates on hold until at least the end of 2018, arguing that growth in wages will be limited by excess capacity in the labour market.

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CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Headaches for Reserve Bank as Aussie battler becomes dollar dazzler

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 18-Jul-17

The Australian dollar has gained three per cent against its US counterpart in the last week, peaking at a two-year high of $US0.7836 in intra-day trading on 17 July. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar trade-weighted index has risen to 66.4 points. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank says the currency’s recent strength means the Reserve Bank will not increase the cash rate as quickly as financial markets had expected.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, GROUP OF TEN (G-10), UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, BLOOMBERG LP

China ratings cut hits markets

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Original article by Rowan Callick, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 25-May-17

The Australian dollar fell sharply on 24 May 2017 in response to Moody’s Investors Service’s decision to downgrade China’s debt rating from "Aa3" to "A1". The Shanghai and Shenzhen sharemarkets also lost ground during intra-day trading. Moody’s has forecast that China’s economic growth potential will fall to around five per cent in the next five years, while it expects debt across the Chinese economy to continue to rise.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STOCKBROKERS AND FINANCIAL ADVISERS ASSOCIATION LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, COMMUNIST PARTY (CHINA)

Stars align as Aussie battler skates to fair value

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 17-Feb-17

The Australian dollar peaked at $US0.7732 in local trading on 16 February 2017, in response to upbeat jobs data. National Australia Bank deems $US0.777 to be "fair value" for the currency at present, and NAB’s Ray Attrill says factors such as the rise in the iron ore price have contributed to the increase in its fair value in recent weeks. The currency has also benefited from growing expectations that the Reserve Bank will not significantly reduce the cash rate during 2017.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Mixed views on dollar’s chance of hitting US80c

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 15-Feb-17

The Australian dollar rallied on 14 February 2017, benefiting from factors such as an upbeat business survey and a strong rise in the Chinese producer price index. The currency has reached a two-year high on a trade-weighted index basis, while it is within sight of the 2016 high of $US0.7835. However, the spot price of iron ore may not be sustainable at the current elevated level, while the gap between official interest rates in Australia and the US is likely to narrow as the Federal Reserve gears up to tighten monetary policy.

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UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Resurgent $A tipped to reach US78c mark

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 13-Jan-17

The Australian dollar peaked at $US0.7472 during the first press conference of US president-elect Donald Trump. Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank notes that the Australian dollar has performed better against its US counterpart than other key currencies so far in 2017. Westpac has identified the $US0.7525 level as the next target for the Australian dollar, while the ANZ Bank says it could potentially rise to $US0.78.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

$A one tweet away from a tumble, says Westpac

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Jan-17

Modelling by Westpac suggests that the Australian dollar is about eight per cent below "fair value" at present. Westpac’s Robert Rennie warns that the dollar is vulnerable to another sell-off if US president-elect Donald Trump prompts a trade war with China. Meanwhile, Westpac expects commodity prices to fall in 2017. The bank also anticipates that Australia’s cash rate will remain unchanged while there will be two rate rises in the US.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Wave of uncertainty wipes $30bn

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

The Australian dollar and the domestic sharemarket fell sharply on 9 November 2016, in response to the election of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day low of 5,052.1 before closing down 1.9 per cent at 5156.6. In the US, S&P 500 futures initially fell by more than five per cent, which resulted in a temporary suspension of trading. Some analysts expect "risk-off" trading to be sustained for some time, while the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in December appears to have diminished. The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.758 in local trading, and Westpac’s Robert Rennie says it could fall below $US0.74 in the near-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED