FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES – AUSTRALIA

RBA give exporters no relief on $A

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Mar-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 for the first time in eight months and this trend is bad news for exporters. Tourism operators, services providers and education companies cannot count on a corrective action from the Reserve Bank of Australia. A decline in the unemployment rate, which fell from six per cent to 5.8 per cent in February 2016, will make the central bank less willing to cut the official interest rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

$A ignores RBA ‘jawboning’ and pushes to eight-month high

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Mar-16

The Australian dollar was trading at $US0.7591 in late local trade on 17 March 2016. The local currency has been rising for some time and even words of caution by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle failed to affect it. Debelle told a foreign exchange seminar in Sydney that Australia needs a weaker domestic currency.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Saxo Bank’s Jakobsen betting on dollar parity

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Mar-16

The Australian dollar reached an eight-month high of $US0.7485 in local trading on 8 March 2016, compared with a peak of $US1.10 in 2011. Steen Jakobsen, the chief economist at Saxo Bank, is upbeat about the outlook for the currency, forecasting that it will eventually reach parity with its US counterpart for the first time since 2011. He expects factors such as financial market volatility and the trend toward negative interest rates to bolster support for the currency.

CORPORATES
SAXO BANK A/S, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Higher dollar not enough to kill RBA’s chill

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Feb-16

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at two per cent on 1 March 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is among the economists who expect an interest rate cut at some point in 2016. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe does not expect the central bank to resume "jawboning" the Australian dollar in its monetary policy statement, despite its recent rise to a seven-week high.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Australia forecast to follow Fed on rates

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Dec-15

The Australian dollar has strengthened in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates. There is growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin tightening monetary policy in 2016, with BT Investment Management forecasting that the cash rate will rise from two per cent to 2.5 per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects monetary policy to remain unchanged, while the ANZ Bank has forecast that the cash rate will be cut to 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Easy money era coming to an end

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 18-Dec-15

The Australian sharemarket rose on 17 December 2015, in response to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates from historic lows. However, the Australian dollar lost ground in local trading, while the US dollar gained 0.95 per cent. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has given indications that there could potentially be four interest rate increases in 2016, although Mark Bayley of AquAsia has questioned whether there will be scope for such aggressive monetary policy tightening. Many analysts believe that two rate rises are more likely.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AQUASIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WELLS FARGO BANK

RBA’s Stevens sees hope in jobs growth

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 16-Dec-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its economic growth forecast in November 2015, but governor Glenn Stevens does not believe another downgrade is needed in the near-term. Stevens has also given indications that further interest rate cuts may not be necessary in the current monetary policy cycle, noting that the unemployment rate is well below the central bank’s expectations earlier in 2015. He adds that the downturn in commodity prices may put further downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Dollar discourages US trips: United Airlines

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Original article by Lisa Allen
The Australian – Page: 20 : 10-Dec-15

United Airlines has reported a fall in the number of Australian tourists flying to the US. Brian Znotins, vice-president for network planning at the airline, believes that this trend is the result of the weakness of the Australian dollar against the US currency. There will be no increase in the airline’s services from Sydney and Melbourne to Los Angeles.

CORPORATES
UNITED AIR LINES INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

US dollar bull run not over as world monetary policy splits

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 25-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was buying around $US0.72 late in trading on 24 November 2015, after reaching an intra-day low of $US0.7159 in the previous session. PIMCO portfolio manager Luke Spajic anticipates further support for the US dollar in the current monetary policy environment, with the Federal Reserve poised to increase interest rates and many other central banks likely to reduce interest rates. There is growing expectation that US interest rates will rise in December.

CORPORATES
PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

$A likely to dip into the 50c range, says Macro Currency

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Nov-15

Mark Farrington of Macro Currency Group says the Australian dollar remains overvalued, despite its fall in recent months. He estimates that the currency needs to fall by another 10 per cent to the $US0.50 range as the economy rebalances. Meanwhile, Farrington expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate another two times in the current monetary policy easing cycle, adding that the first cut could be in the June 2016 quarter.

CORPORATES
MACRO CURRENCY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD