GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – AUSTRALIA

Treasury warns of inflation at 7.25pc

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-May-26

The budget papers show that the Treasury’s base case is that the inflation rate will ease to 2.5 per cent in 2027, after peaking at a forecast five per cent in mid-2026. This is based on expectations that the price of crude oil will fall; however, the Treasury’s worst-case scenario modelling suggests that inflation will rise above seven per cent if a protracted war in the Middle East results in the crude oil price rising above $US200 a barrel in the September quarter. This would in turn reduce real GDP growth by 0.5 per cent over the next two financial years and result in an official unemployment rate of nearly five per cent in 2027-28.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

OECD trims Australian economic growth expectations

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

The OECD now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.8 per cent in 2025, compared with its previous forecast of 1.9 per cent. However, its growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The Paris-based organisation also expects global economic growth to slow in both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, Australia’s official GDP data for the March quarter will be released today, and economists from the nation’s four major banks have downgraded their forecasts for economic growth during the period; Westpac is the most bearish, warning of a small risk of negative growth.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

$250bn GDP forgone on weaker growth

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Apr-25

Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2 per cent a year over the last decade. The Coalition has committed to a new productivity growth target of 1.5 per cent a year if it wins the election on Saturday. In contrast, Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2 per cent over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250bn higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have been $50bn higher.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Government spending splurge props up GDP

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that federal and state government spending totalled $195.8bn in the September quarter. This is eight per cent higher year-on-year, and compares with average annual spending growth of 5.3 per cent in the decade prior to the pandemic. The ABS notes that recurrent government spending increased by 1.4 per cent in the quarter, which is partly due to federal and state government electricity bill subsidies. Meanwhile, Westpac says government spending is set to reach a record 27.8 per cent of GDP in the quarter, compared with 27.3 per cent in the three months to June. National accounts data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that annual GDP growth rose to 1.1 per cent in September.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Mining profits suffer a $4.6bn hit

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 3-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that profits in the nation’s resources sector fell by 8.8 per cent to $47.4bn in the September quarter. The $4.6bn downturn was driven by a decline in iron ore and coal exports, which will weigh on the federal government’s revenue and the budget bottom line. The figures also show that non-mining profits fell by 1.7 per cent to $74.1bn during the quarter, and by 2.8 per cent in the year to September. Meanwhile, GDP data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter and 1.1 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

‘Too far’: ALP frontbencher’s warning to Reserve Bank

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Sep-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says CPI data to be released on Wednesday will underline the impact of interest rate rises on the economy. Chalmers contends that he is "not taking a shot at anyone", although some observers have suggested that he is seeking to blame the Reserve Bank for the slowdown in the economy. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the fact that there has been only a small uptick in the unemployment rate refutes Chalmers’ claim that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate increases are "smashing the economy". Meanwhile, Assistant Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite says the central bank must not go "too far" in seeking to combat inflation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Imports fall as households cut back

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s current account surplus rose to $11.8bn in the December quarter, compared with just $1.3bn in the three months to September. Import volumes fell by 2.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in the December quarter, with import volumes of consumer goods down 5.4 per cent. Export volumes were down 0.4 per cent, although higher iron ore and coal prices boosted overall export prices by 3.1 per cent. Meanwhile, economists expect the national accounts data to be released on Wednesday will show that GDP growth was 0.2 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Risk to GDP growth as firms destock

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Mar-24

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that inventories fell by 1.7 per cent in the December quarter as private sector companies destocked, in part due to weaker demand. The surprise fall in inventories has increased speculation that GDP figures for the December quarter, which are to be released on Wednesday, will show a contraction, which would be the first since the September 2021 quarter. Asked about the prospect of GDP growth having been negative in the December quarter, Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that Britain and Japan had recently fallen into a technical recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Nation stuck on grow slow: OECD

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Sep-23

The OECD still expects Australia to record GDP growth of 1.8 per cent in 2023, in line with its previous forecast. However, GDP growth is expected to be just 1.3 per cent in 2024. The OECD has also forecast that Australia’s headline inflation rate will fall to 3.2 per cent in 2024, down from 5.5 per cent in 2023. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of core inflation is forecast to rise to 5.9 per cent in 2023 before falling to 3.3 per cent next year. Meanwhile, the minutes from the RBA’s monthly board meeting shows that board members considered lifting the cash rate to 4.35 per cent in September, due to concerns about inflation

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Hoarded cash to drive recovery

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 22-Sep-21

The OECD now expects the Australian economy to grow by four per cent in 2021. The Paris-based organisation had previously forecast in May that the domestic economy would expand by 5.1 per cent in 2021 as it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Commonwealth Bank says economic activity will be boosted as households begin spending about $230bn worth of savings they have accumulated during the pandemic. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that it is also upbeat about the long-term economic outlook, despite expectations that GDP will fall and unemployment will rise in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA