Lower taxes can lift growth and wages

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Jul-19

The University of Melbourne’s John Freebairn argues that reducing the tax rate for larger companies would stimulate economic growth and help to increase wages. He adds that a tax cut for large companies with non-resident shareholders in particular would boost GDP growth. The federal government has ruled out further attempts to introduce tax cuts for businesses with annual turnover of more than $50m following the bill’s rejection by the Senate.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA

Australia’s economy slows to levels last seen during the GFC

Original article by Stephen Letts, Michael Janda
abc.net au – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

Official data shows that Australia’s GDP growth was just 0.4 per cent in the March 2019 quarter, and 1.8 per cent in the year to March. Annual growth was the lowest in almost a decade, heightening concerns about a GDP per capita recession. The national accounts data also shows that household spending grew by just 1.8 per cent in the year to March, although government spending increased by 5.1 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the near-term outlook for the economy remains positive, but he cautions that the outlook for 2020 is "challenging".

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Price carbon cuts? Yes you can

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-May-19

Independent modelling has concluded that GDP growth could be reduced by a cumulative $264bn by 2030 if Labor’s carbon emissions reduction policy includes unlimited access to international carbon credits. This could rise to around $1.2bn if the use of foreign carbon credits is restricted or banned. The modelling is outlined in a new report by former bureaucrat Brian Fisher, which will be released on 2 May. Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler has previously argued that its emissions reduction policy cannot be costed.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND SCIENCES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Hold on rates due to strong jobs data

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Mar-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank expects the labour market to remain strong, negating the need for any change to the cash rate in the near-term. The Reserve Bank also maintained its guidance for GDP growth of about three per cent in 2019, although the board meeting was held the day before the release of data showing GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent for the December 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Resources boom gives government wriggle room

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Mar-19

Higher commodity prices in 2018 resulted in nominal GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for the calendar year. The mid-year Budget update in December had forecast nominal GDP growth of 4.75 per cent in 2018-19 and just 3.5 per cent in 2019-20. Treasury is likely to revise these forecasts in the April 2019 Budget, although it is expected to scale back economic growth forecasts in response to the national accounts data for the December quarter. Meanwhile, company and personal income tax revenue rose by 11.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA to cut its 3.25pc growth forecast, economists say

Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 20-Dec-18

Janu Chan of St George Bank is among the economists who expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to scale back its economic growth forecast of 3.25 per cent for 2018-19 at its first board meeting in 2019. This follows lower-than-expected GDP growth for the September quarter. The central bank’s monetary policy meeting in February will take into account the latest inflation and employment data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

With numbers like these, the only way is down for RBA

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Dec-18

The lower-than-expected GDP growth for both the September quarter and the year to September should be sufficient to ensure further easing of monetary policy. The Reserve Bank has consistently maintained that the cash rate is more likely to rise rather than fall, but a rate cut now seems more probable. However, the record level of household debt means a rate cut may have little impact on the economy or put much downward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Weak wages a threat to Xmas sales

Original article by John Kehoe, Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 6-Dec-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, compared with economists’ expectations of 0.6 per cent growth. Economists have attributed the fall in consumer spending to low wages growth and raised concerns about the outlook for retail sales during the Christmas trading period. Recent research by the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan found that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. The GDP data may affect the timing of any change in official interest rates, but the federal government still expects to post a Budget surplus in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MJ BALE, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RETAIL APPAREL GROUP PTY LTD, CITIBANK PTY LTD

Budget moves closer to surplus on back of RBA upgrade

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 8-Nov-18

The federal government’s May 2018 Budget papers had forecast average real GDP growth of 2.75 per cent in 2018-19, rising to three per cent in 2019-20. The Budget could potentially return to surplus earlier than projected if the government upwardly revises its GDP forecasts in line with the latest forecasts issued by the Reserve Bank. The government will update its forecasts in December. Peter Downes of Outlook Economics says a surplus is possible in 2018-19, depending on the outlook for commodity prices, the Australian dollar and profits in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

Nation’s economic success little more than good luck

Original article by David Uren, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Oct-18

Business Council of Australia CEO Jennifer Westacott argues that the nation’s GDP growth is primarily due to factors such as population growth, consumption and government spending, rather than productivity gains. She notes that productivity growth has fallen to its lowest levels since the 1970s, and she has stressed the risks facing the domestic economy. Westacott and Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson have both highlighted the federal government’s failure to deliver on policies such as the national energy guarantee and company tax cuts.

CORPORATES
BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD