GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – AUSTRALIA

Panic buying could put GDP in positive territory for March

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 23-Apr-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail turnover increased by 8.2 per cent in March, driven by panic buying in response to the coronavirus. Sales of canned food, medicinal products and cleaning goods were particularly strong in March, with turnover rising by 50 per cent month-on-month. Josh Williamson of Citigroup warns that retail turnover is likely to fall sharply in April, due to the impact of lockdowns and social distancing rules. David Plank of the ANZ Bank says the sales boost in March could potentially result positive GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND SCIENCES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia set to emerge with V-shaped recovery

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Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 15-Apr-20

Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital forecasts that the majority of developed economies will record a 3-5 per cent decline in GDP growth for 2020. A recent quarterly survey of economists found that the median forecast is for a 3.9 per cent decline in Australia’s GDP growth for the year. Toohey says the domestic economy is likely to experience a V-shaped recovery when it eventually comes. He adds that the "biggest unknown" is just how long the coronavirus lockdown restrictions will remain in place.

CORPORATES
YARRA CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

Brace for a record fall in GDP

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Mar-20

JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman expects GDP to fall by 10 per cent in the June quarter due to the coronavirus lockdown measures. The previous largest quarterly decline in GDP was just two per cent in 1974. Jarman also forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to 11 per cent during the quarter, a view shared by Bill Evans of Westpac. However, Evans expects GDP to fall by just 3.5 per cent in the quarter. Westpac economists have also forecast a Budget deficit of $90bn in 2019-20 due to the federal government’s stimulus measures, and a deficit of $160bn in 2020-21.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Bull to bear in three weeks with market down 20pc as Trump leaves the world waiting

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 12-Mar-20

The Australian sharemarket is now officially in bear market territory, having shed 20 per cent since reaching a record high of 7,162.5 points just three weeks ago. Some $13bn worth of shares changed hands on 11 March, which is the fifth-highest daily total on record. Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter expects market volatility to persist for at least another month or so. Meanwhile, Josh Williamson of Citigroup now expects Australia to record minus 0.25 per cent GDP growth in the March quarter and zero growth in the June quarter.

CORPORATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Australia’s economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts

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Original article by Michael Janda
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 5-Mar-20

Official data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for quarterly growth of 0.3-0.4 per cent and annual growth of two per cent. However, the full impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will not be felt until GDP data for the first quarter of 2020 is released. Meanwhile, overall domestic demand increased by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter, while business investment and resident construction fell. Sarah Hunter of BIS Oxford Economics says the economy is likely to contract in the March quarter, adding that the risk of a recession has increased.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Economy lifts but spending at GFC levels

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Dec-19

Australia’s GDP growth for the September quarter was slightly below economists’ forecasts at 0.4 per cent, while the economy grew by 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The national accounts data also shows that consumer spending increased by just 0.1 per cent during the quarter, which is its lowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the household savings rate rose from 2.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has welcomed the GDP data, but shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers has renewed Labor’s call for economic stimulus.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Investment strike keeps growth low

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 5-Dec-19

Commonwealth Bank economist Michael Blythe says the latest GDP data shows that Australia has a two-speed economy, with private sector spending down 0.1 per cent in the September quarter and 0.3 per cent year-on-year, while public sector spending increased by 1.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively. Master Builders Australia has urged the federal government to fast-track smaller infrastructure projects, with chief economist Shane Garrett noting that businesses and consumers lack the confidence to spend at present.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED – ASX WGN

Stimulus calls to ease as mine exports surge

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Dec-19

Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank says high commodity prices were a big contributor to Australia’s $7.9bn current account surplus for the September quarter. Official data shows that government spending was also higher than forecast during the quarter. The figures have strengthened expectations that the latest national accounts data will show that the economy grew by at least 0.5 per cent in the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. This would in turn reduce pressure on the federal government to pursue stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Spending forecasts raise GDP fears

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 29-Nov-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that business investment fell by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter and by 1.3 per cent year-on-year. Mining investment increased by 1.2 per cent in the year to September, while investment in equipment, plant and machinery was down 3.5 per cent. Josh Williamson of Citigroup says the latter figure is likely to reduce GDP growth in the September quarter by 0.15 percentage points.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

RBA eyes housing rebound as economic growth slows

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 4-Sep-19

The latest national accounts data is expected to show that Australia’s GDP growth slowed to about 1.5 per cent in the year to June, well below the federal government’s May 2019 Budget forecast of 2.25 per cent growth. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that economic growth will improve "gradually"; he notes that although new housing construction activity remains weak, there are signs of an upturn in the established housing market. The central bank’s decision to leave official interest rates on hold in September coincided with the release of data confirming a current account surplus of $5.9bn for the June quarter, the first since the 1970s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS