GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – AUSTRALIA

Reserve takes hands off the growth lever

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 7-Jun-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for June 2017 notes that GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the March 2017 quarter. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says that while the central bank may be willing to overlook a temporary fall in GDP, a second successive quarter of weak GDP growth in June would be a concern for it. Dales expects the RBA to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the rest of 2017, after doing so in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

AAA could go at any time

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Dec-16

Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings have signalled that Australia’s triple-A credit rating could potentially be downgraded on 19 December 2016, following the release of the mid-year budget update. Both credit rating agencies have previously warned that the triple-A rating could be at risk if the Government fails to meet its target of 2020-21 for returning the Budget to surplus. Meanwhile, Adam Boynton of Deutsche Bank has forecast that nominal GDP growth will be 3.25 per cent in 2017-18, compared with the May Budget forecast of five per cent.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Budget turmoil as GDP slumps

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Dec-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison has attributed the larger-than-forecast downturn in GDP growth in the September 2016 quarter to a sustained decline in business investment over the last three years. The national accounts data shows that GDP growth contracted by 0.5 per cent during the period, while annual growth fell from 3.1 per cent in the June quarter to just 1.8 per cent. Morrison has downplayed the potential for a recession, while Westpac’s Bill Evans argues that a number of one-off factors contributed to the poor economic performance, including the federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Alarm as economic growth stalls

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Dec-16

The Australian economy expanded by just 1.8 per cent in the year to September 2016. The Federal Government’s upcoming mid-year Budget update is likely to include a downgraded 2016 economic growth forecast, which was tipped to be 3.25 per cent in the Budget in May. However, Paul Bloxham of HSBC notes that GDP has not fallen for two consecutive quarters since 1991. Nevertheless, the national accounts for the September quarter may strengthen the case for further official interest rate cuts.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Party’s over as economy turns mediocre

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 7-Dec-16

Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the September 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth likely to have slowed to about two per cent. This compares with annual GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June. Despite the relative strength of the economy and a fall in the jobless rate, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that growth in employment has slowed and underemployment has risen to a record high, at 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ASX to hit 6000 in ’17, says Credit Suisse

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 18-Oct-16

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse believes that the Australian sharemarket’s "profits recession" of the last several years has ended, which will be reflected in the market’s outlook. Credit Suisse expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to reach the 6,000-point level by the end of 2017, buoyed by single-digit growth in earnings per share over the next year. Meanwhile, Matthew Sherwood of Perpetual is upbeat about the outlook for the economy, forecasting a rise in GDP growth over the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MAQUILADORA PARTNERSHIP, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR

Taxpayer funds hold up economy, families ease back

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Sep-16

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economic expanded by 3.3 per cent in the year to June 2016. It is now 25 years since the last recession in Australia, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has attributed the almost unprecedented period of economic growth to factors such as the nation’s commitment to free trade and economic reform. However, growth in household spending slowed to just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter, while growth in household incomes is also subdued. A sharp rise in government spending contributed to GDP growth in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, EAST ASIA SUMMIT

$100bn hit to deepen budget debt crisis

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Aug-16

Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics has warned that the Federal Budget may remain in deficit for some time. The Treasury has forecast that net debt will peak at $A356bn before falling to around $A335bn in 2021-22. However, Richardson’s analysis suggests that net debt could rise to $A440bn by 2021-22 if the nation records nominal GDP growth of 3.5 per cent and the Senate continues to reject the Government’s proposed spending cuts. May 2016 Budget forecasts are based on nominal GDP rising from 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 to five per cent by 2017.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Over-55s could add $78b in GDP

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Original article by Lucille Keen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 25-Jul-16

A new study by PwC shows that Australia is ranked 16th among OECD nations in terms of retaining older employees in the workforce. The PwC Golden Age Index estimates that the nation’s GDP could be boosted by 4.7 per cent by ensuring that more older people – particularly the 55+ age group – remain in the workforce. This would equate to an annual increase in GDP of about $A78bn. Jeremy Thorpe of PwC warns that it would take about 10 years to achieve such an increase in GDP via measures aimed at lifting workforce participation among older age groups.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. CENTRELINK, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Morrison worried about growth

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 31-May-16

Economists forecast that the Australian economy expanded by just 0.6 per cent in the March 2016 quarter. Data to be released on 31 May is tipped to show GDP growth of 2.7 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, compared with three per cent previously. Treasurer Scott Morrison has used the slowing economy to defend the Federal Government’s push to reduce the corporate tax rate. He has also criticised Opposition Leader Bill Shorten for opposing tax cuts that would stimulate economic activity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA